According to a research report recently released by research firm Wood Mackenzie, from 2021 to 2030, the global production of lithium-ion batteries is likely to increase by more than five times, reaching 5,500GWh.
The Asia-Pacific region, led by China, will account for 90% of global battery manufacturing in 2021. By 2030, the region's share is expected to drop to 69%. While North America’s battery capacity could expand tenfold by 2030, it still lags behind Europe, where lithium-ion battery capacity is expected to surpass North America in 2022 and account for more than 20% of global capacity by 2030 through faster expansion.
Jiayue Zheng, analyst consultant at Wood Mackenzie, said: “The electric vehicle (EV) market accounts for nearly 80% of lithium-ion battery demand. High oil prices are supporting the introduction of zero-emission transport policies in more markets, leading to a surge in lithium-ion battery demand by 2030. will exceed 3,000GWh.
The lithium-ion battery market was already in short supply last year due to strong demand for electric vehicles and rising raw material prices. Based on current conditions, we expect battery supply to be unable to meet demand until 2023. "
Global battery makers are responding to massive expansion plans, with a combined capacity of 300 manufacturing plants to exceed 5,500GWh by 2030. Among them, Chinese manufacturers have announced plans to produce more than 3,000GWh of battery capacity.
In 2021, the top 15 manufacturers in the global production capacity will produce about 200GWh of batteries, and the cumulative production capacity will reach 600GWh. Meanwhile, another 3,000GWh of battery capacity is in the planning or construction stage. For example, CATL leads the production scale growth with excellent operational and planned production capacity, and the company's production capacity will reach 800GWh by 2030. Some Chinese battery makers have also set ambitious 2025 capacity targets. Wood Mackenzie expects to open more new plants in 2022.
Another trend to watch is the growing prominence of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries as nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary (NCM) lithium-ion batteries lose some market share. Historically, the EV and energy storage system markets have mostly adopted nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary (NCM) lithium-ion batteries given their availability and maturity. In 2021, nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary (NCM) lithium-ion batteries still account for half of the market share. However, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries are starting to enter the market with competitive cost, long life cycle and high safety performance, making them an attractive option for power and energy applications. Wood Mackenzie expects lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries to surpass nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary (NCM) lithium-ion batteries in market share by 2028.
