In 2021, the lithium battery market will move from quantitative change to qualitative change
The lithium battery industry chain generally has several links: resources (lithium, cobalt, nickel, etc.) → raw materials → (positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials, separators, electrolytes, etc.) → lithium-ion batteries → downstream applications (including four-wheeled vehicles, two Electric vehicles including wheeled vehicles, energy storage, mobile phones, laptops, and other consumer electronics, etc.).
The development of the lithium-ion battery market fundamentally depends on the development of downstream applications. The advancement of battery technology will also greatly stimulate the development of downstream applications, and the two interact. After years of research and development and demonstration operation, my country's new energy automobile industry has formed a complete industrial chain and has a foundation for industrialization. The transformation from quantitative change to qualitative change is a typical feature of the development of China's new energy automobile lithium battery industry.
Looking forward to 2021, the new energy automobile industry's price parity and new product cycles will accelerate the increase in penetration rate, large-scale online energy storage required for new energy, and strong weight constraints for electric bicycles, which will promote the acceleration of lithium battery demand.
Starting from 2021, the global lithium battery market demand will increase significantly, but at present, the capacity supply of the entire industry chain is relatively slow, and effective supply is insufficient. With the explosive growth in demand for power batteries, the supply of capacity across the supply chain will face challenges.
Under such demand forecasts, major power lithium battery companies are also rushing to prepare for production capacity. In addition, more and more power battery companies and car companies are aware of the importance of a stable supply of upstream raw materials and have diversified their layout.
From the perspective of the technical route, 2021 will be another year of resurgence for lithium iron phosphate batteries. It is estimated that the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the pure electric passenger car market will reach 20GWh in 2021, and the installed capacity will increase to 28.9%.
In addition, the simplification of the battery structure with the ultimate goal of reducing costs will be further achieved in 2021. Taking a square battery as an example, the structure of the battery pack is roughly divided into four levels: "JellyRoll→Cell→Module→Pack". At every next level, there are some structural parts, which take up both cost and space. If it can be simplified, it can save costs and increase the energy density of the battery pack, which will do two things with one stone.
In addition to increasing energy density and reducing costs, continuously shortening the charging time is also an important part of battery technology development. It is foreseeable that the development of battery technology and related materials technology will become more difficult in the future. When the progress of technological development does not match the wishes of capital, supplemented by storytelling becomes inevitable. From this perspective, 2021 is a year of popular science, and investors and the general public will have more opportunities to learn about lithium battery knowledge.
As a technology-intensive and capital-intensive investment industry, the battery new energy industry has always been a big gold attractor. It is foreseeable that in 2021, the battery new energy industry will usher in greater development. At the same time, problems such as industry bubbles, high accounts receivable, shortage of raw materials, battery recycling difficulties, complete infrastructure such as charging piles, and consumer trust crisis still exist. The potential and hidden worries of the battery new energy industry coexist. On the road of quality development, we need to be steady and far-reaching.
Relying on the rapid recovery of China's new energy vehicles in the second half of 2020, the lithium battery industry will usher in a new period of development. The editor of Cuneng Electric believes that the development of the lithium battery industry chain in 2021 can be summarized in one sentence: dancing with the bubble, there will be a good harvest in terms of "quantity", and we also look forward to to the quality of technological progress.
Summary: The lithium battery field has a blue ocean market with huge potential. The key to the healthy development of the lithium battery industry is to conscientiously create suitable products, promote new-type lithium battery innovation, improve service specifications, and establish an efficient and reliable cooperation mechanism. We sincerely hope that in 2021, lithium batteries will usher in better and faster development!
