From 2014, China's new energy cars including direct subsidies to support the policy landing, driving the domestic new energy cars into a rapid development channel. The rapid increase in sales of new energy cars has led to a significant increase in the demand for power batteries. In terms of shipments, in 2018, the domestic battery company Ningde Era ranked first in terms of installed power battery capacity at 24.0 GWh. Panasonic followed with 22.0GWh of shipments.
Although domestic companies are in the lead in terms of shipments, and Panasonic and other companies are cutting back on shipments, several companies such as Panasonic, Samsung SDI, LG Chem and SKI are still dominant in terms of the skills of power lithium-ion batteries. Especially in the high energy density and advanced battery skills, Japanese companies have a prominent leading edge. Our enterprises are difficult to catch up in 2~3 years. However, in the application of lithium iron and artificial graphite, our enterprises represented by Ningde Times and BYD now have a lot of advantages. At this time when the call for fossil fuel to electricity is getting louder and louder, the advanced degree of battery technology will be the core competitiveness in the future.
But our domestic enterprises subsidies where the business is, Japan and South Korea's power battery companies often began many years ago the skills pre-research and product development, they pay more attention to the market and customer demand, not for the immediate interests and short-term interests, not subject to policy changes and adjustments. These Japanese and Korean power battery companies have patience, know how to give up, but also has a deep skill set, its car battery is now to the period of commercialization.
Now, there has been a lot of money in the influx of power lithium-ion battery category, but the power battery to do a good job, just have the money is not enough, but also need to have a full understanding of the industry talent to do. "Briefly dig a few people, you want to do a good job in the power battery era has now passed. Honestly, in the past few years, the progress of China's battery companies is very fast, but there are some problems. First of all, China's battery companies are a bit eager to get things done, and there are still many things that they do not want to clear, so they go straight on. Secondly, they are the essence of the industry, future trends, customer demand lack of cognitive and long-term consideration, the habit of a swarm and convergence to follow the trend. Also, the most important thing is that domestic enterprises often lack the real fear of the mall and customers, the lack of the fear of humanity from the depths of the heart, in order to make money at all costs, in order to take subsidies no dare to do the phenomenon is still more prominent.
Tesla large area using Panasonic batteries as a power energy, this technical strength of the brand lithium cell plus Tesla's own battery management system, after 3 years of use, has driven 100,000 km, but the battery decay is still less than 30 km. This is the current domestic lithium battery core technology is difficult to imagine, in technology, we still need a long time to precipitate.
Power battery future trends and interpretation of industry development
1, production and sales continue to grow rapidly, industry concentration in the competition to improve
In 2018, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.256 million units, and the power battery industry, driven by the new energy vehicle industry, continued to maintain rapid growth, with the total annual installed capacity reaching 56.9 GWh, up 56.3% year-on-year. From the concentration of power battery production enterprises as well as the number of the number can be seen, the development of the power battery industry has been effectively enhanced after the big wave of concentration, and the market share of the power battery industry is further concentrated to the leading enterprises.
2, the power battery system sales price fell strongly, upstream materials become a key factor
Power battery system as the highest cost component in new energy vehicles directly determines the market pricing of the whole vehicle. In the evolution of China's power battery product cost development, the construction of the industry chain and the continuous improvement of the localization rate has played a key role in boosting the cost of power batteries. 2018 China's power battery upstream materials production growth is rapid, the industrialization process continues to accelerate, reducing the cost of power batteries is effective. Overall, the sales price of China's new energy vehicle power battery system has shown a trend of year-on-year decline, but the competitive situation is still severe, requiring industry cooperation to jointly promote.
3, the development of power battery is good, but the frequent occurrence of negative events still cause concern
The development of the power battery industry continues to be favorable, but the recent successive new energy vehicle spontaneous combustion events are alarm bells ringing for the entire power battery industry. With a large number of car companies into the new energy, safety issues have become the industry's first scoop of cold water current battery technology research and development, obviously can not keep up with the large-scale expansion of the electric vehicle industry, battery technology to be broken through, safety issues to be resolved.
4, the recycling route is becoming clear, the commercial system is still to be improved
At present, the battery recycling industry is still in the starting stage, after 2018 new energy vehicle power battery will enter large-scale retirement, is expected to 019 power battery recycling volume will reach 136.5 kilotons, in 2020 will reach 247.6 kilotons. At present, Ningde Time, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, AVIC Lithium and other battery manufacturers and material manufacturers have started to make efforts in the layout of the power battery recycling field. Recycling network has been initially built but not yet mature
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