Tesla is a technologically advanced electric vehicle production technology-based company, although in the battery management technology is riding high, ahead of many brands in the industry, but they do not produce industrial lithium cells, Tesla's electric cars mainly rely on the battery to provide power supply, so the demand for lithium cells can be imagined, in this context Tesla has brought out two global power battery champion, first Panasonic, after is LG Chemical. Whether it is Panasonic, LG Chemical, or just taken away from the global top by LG Chemical Ningde era, are accelerating in the field of ternary lithium batteries.
From January to April this year, the installed capacity of domestic ternary lithium batteries (NCM, cathode material for nickel cobalt manganese three materials) rose to 72.87%, while the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) fell further to 22.93%, and the proportion of lithium manganate (LMO) and other batteries together accounted for less than 5%. This is significantly different from the power battery format in previous years, in 2017, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries accounted for 49.61% and 44.69% respectively, but the following year the former was overtaken by the latter, and the gap widened year by year.
Following the expansion of the installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries and the advancement of skills, the price is rapidly declining, for example, the price of ternary lithium battery cells fell in just a few years from 3 yuan / watt hour to now is comparable to lithium iron phosphate batteries. Ivey Economic Research Institute General Manager Wu Hui said in a recent interview with the top financial journalist, this year, lithium iron phosphate battery cells 60 to 70 cents per watt, ternary lithium battery cells in about 70 to 80 cents, and some companies supply ternary cells to strategic customers and even more than 60 cents.
As a new energy car "heart" of the power battery will be one of the key factors, and the competitiveness of the power battery is inseparable from the cost.
The first further price war is coming
Has been, Tesla with Panasonic, LG Chemical and Ningde era three battery suppliers to attack, the domestic new energy car companies have launched a new battery skills to meet the war. The rapid rise of ternary lithium batteries, which makes the main lithium iron phosphate battery BYD and other companies under steep pressure. Therefore, BYD recently launched a new generation of lithium iron phosphate batteries - blade battery, its energy density than the traditional iron battery progressed by 50%, the cost fell by 30%. May 13, BYD's first pure electric vehicle equipped with blade battery Han EV debuted in Europe, and plans to be listed in China at the end of June.
Although BYD group vice president and Fudi battery chairman He Long claimed that many car brands are exploring cooperation programs with BYD based on blade battery skills, but as to whether the blade battery can block the "butchery" of ternary lithium batteries, there are different voices in the industry.
On the future development prospects of the two skill lines, the multi-legged Ningde era may have more say, but the answer given by the more "confused". In the recently held 2019 annual results clarification meeting, was asked by investors to Tesla's supply products will be lithium iron phosphate or MCN811 ternary lithium battery, Ningde era response is that the company and Tesla's skills team early communication docking, supply time is probably the second half of this year, supply is not limited to lithium iron phosphate or ternary lithium, detailed supply products depend on market demand . As for the CTP battery pack (CelltoPack, no module power pack) skills will be extended from lithium iron phosphate battery to MCN811 ternary lithium battery, Ningde era, said the battery innovation by the structural part and the chemical system part, CTP belongs to the structural innovation, whether it is lithium iron phosphate, 811 or the future of the new system, can be achieved on the CTP. Ningde era independent design battery pack energy density can do more than 250Wh/kg.
Wu Hui said bluntly that he is more optimistic about the development of ternary lithium in the long run.
"Lithium iron phosphate battery still has the cost advantage in the short term, and new energy vehicle subsidies extended for two years, which is also good for lithium iron phosphate battery. Lithium iron phosphate market share in the short term will perhaps rebound, such as Tesla will acquire Ningde era of lithium iron phosphate for low range on domestic electric vehicles. However, from the energy density and other aspects, lithium iron phosphate has always had its limitations, it is very difficult to reach 200Wh/kg, and ternary lithium can break more than 300Wh/kg. In terms of safety, lithium iron phosphate batteries are safer than the relatively active ternary lithium batteries, but after the material, process, design and other aspects of the best efforts, the safety of ternary lithium batteries can also be improved. In addition, following the accelerated development of ternary lithium battery skills and scale, its future price reduction space will probably be greater than lithium iron phosphate batteries." Wu Hui thought so.
Ningde era also said that the long-term price and profit level of the battery depends mainly on the cost and market format, it is estimated that with the new energy subsidy policy slope, skills progress, etc., lithium battery prices will show a downward trend, but the rate of decline will gradually slow down. The main competitiveness of the future occupation should be reflected in product quality, safety, research and development investment and scale efficiency.
Ningde era and BYD respectively in the battery structure through CTP skills and blade skills to accelerate the decline in cost. In addition, enterprises such as Ningde Era and Great Wall's Hive Energy are making efforts to develop cobalt-free batteries and seek breakthroughs in materials. At that time, the concept of cobalt-free battery was sought after, and lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, dry cell + super capacitor were all classified as cobalt-free battery. Luo Huanta, president of Dadong Era (Shenzhen) Information Consulting Co., Ltd, said in an interview with the top financial reporter that less cobalt or perhaps no cobalt is the trend of power battery, one of the reasons is that the metal price of cobalt is high, which is not conducive to the reduction of cost.
How to commercialize the "gold-containing" battery?
Graphene is known as "black gold", is the "king of new materials", scientists predict that graphene will "completely change the 21st century", is likely to set off a sweeping global disruptive New skills and new industrial innovation. Graphene has the characteristics of ultra-light, ultra-high strength, super conductivity, etc., and is thought to be an important skill for battery charging speed and promoting the advancement of power battery technology. However, on the car companies, to make the real graphene battery into a new energy car "heart", must overcome the skills and costs and other multiple difficulties. Graphene volume energy density is low, coupled with the stirring coating process is difficult, dispersion and other problems, more importantly, a gram of graphene easily hundreds of dollars, the price and gold than the United States and even more expensive than gold, whether customers will pay the bill? It is difficult to say. Can real graphene batteries from the laboratory to commercialization, which is highly questionable. The industry generally thought that graphene is more as a conductive agent and additive used in lithium batteries. Luo Huanta thought that the possibility of graphene as the main material for power batteries is unlikely. The president of the spruce wisdom Xu Zhengpeng also talked about, before some companies claim to have been able to mass production of graphene batteries, that is only to bias the concept, now the real graphene battery is still too luxurious, it is difficult to achieve mass production and to market.
New energy cars to take food from the mouth of the fuel car, is bound to accelerate the decline in battery costs, however, there are car companies to go against the grain, in favor of the selection of materials comparable to the price of gold. In recent years, more and more companies to join the graphene battery development and production camp. Among them, GAC Group after six years of development, gradually mastered the preparation and use of skills with independent intellectual property rights of three-dimensional structure graphene (3DG) material. Guangzhou Auto New Energy recently said that the "super fast-charging battery" developed based on Guangzhou Auto's three-dimensional structure graphene (3DG) material has now completed the test work of cells, modules and battery pack samples, and carried out a high-power charging test on the whole vehicle. According to the test, the "super fast charging battery" only takes 8 minutes to charge the battery to 85%, the charging time is comparable to the traditional fuel car refueling time. At the end of this year, the graphene battery mass production development operations finally from the laboratory to the actual car, Guangzhou Auto New Energy Eyan models will be equipped with relevant skills.
Power battery battle, and not just between ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate, although graphene, hydrogen fuel and other batteries commercialization has a long way to go, and even because of the Yangchun white snow and may not become the mainstream, but the new skills and new materials are emerging, will continue to change the existing format of the battery, cost-effective, product safety and reliability, product quality stability, energy density, charging speed, cycle life, etc. Become an important indicator of the competition between different battery skill lines.
Although from the surface of lithium iron phosphate batteries have certain disadvantages, and lithium ternary currently in the power output and energy density can make far more than lithium iron phosphate, at present, Ryding Electronics (ryder) the main power lithium battery is still mainly lithium ternary and lithium polymer batteries, and rarely use lithium iron phosphate. But the safety of lithium iron phosphate is still not negligible. Regardless of how the lithium battery technology iterative upgrade, safety performance will certainly be gradually tightened, but also with the technology upgrades, in the future there may be a new battery products, its safety, energy density and all battery length is not impossible.
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