At the end of the 1970s, research on sodium-ion batteries was carried out almost simultaneously with lithium-ion batteries. However, due to the energy density and cycling performance limitations faced by Na-ion batteries at that time, Li-ion batteries have received more attention. In recent years, with the gradual exposure of problems such as scarcity, uneven distribution, and difficulty in development and utilization of lithium resources, sodium-ion batteries with widely distributed resources have returned to people's field of vision, and finding low-cost alternatives has become the focus of attention.
The sodium-ion battery attracted widespread attention in July last year, when the power battery giant CATL released the first-generation sodium-ion battery. But in fact, in March 2021, the sodium-ion battery manufacturer Zhongke Haina completed a 100 million yuan Series A financing.
In August 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that it will carry out the formulation of sodium-ion battery standards in a timely manner to promote the full commercialization of sodium-ion batteries.
At the same time, the development of the energy storage market with lower energy density requirements has given a reassurance to the industrialization of sodium-ion batteries. In the past 10 years, research on sodium-ion batteries has ushered in a blowout growth, and global sodium-ion battery companies have been established one after another, marking the arrival of the era of sodium-ion battery industrialization.
In fact, as early as a year ago, with the large-scale application of new energy vehicles, the price of lithium carbonate, the upstream material of lithium batteries, has gradually increased, causing the industry to worry about the shortage of battery supply. Therefore, many industry insiders also began to pay attention to sodium-ion batteries, a high-quality low-cost supplementary product for the energy storage industry.
According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2021, the cumulative output of power batteries in my country will be 219.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 163.4%; the sales volume will be 186.0GWh, a year-on-year increase of 182.3%; and the installed capacity will be 154.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 142.8%.
The surge in the loading of power batteries has driven the price of lithium carbonate all the way up.
Lithium carbonate is mainly used in the production of lithium iron phosphate and cathode materials in ternary materials. According to ifind data, as of March 17, 2022, the price of 1 ton of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 476,000 yuan, which made the cost of lithium batteries soar; and as a cathode material for sodium-ion batteries, the price of 1 ton of sodium carbonate was only 2,000 yuan to 3,000 yuan. .
Through industry research on the entire industry chain, industry insiders found that sodium-ion batteries have outstanding advantages in cost-sensitive application markets such as energy storage and low-speed electric vehicles.
The principle and structure of sodium-ion batteries are similar to those of lithium batteries. Compared with lithium batteries, sodium-ion batteries have a wide range of resources, low cost and small fluctuations. However, the price of lithium resources continues to rise, and sodium-ion batteries have low prices and stable prices. In the context of the transformation of the global energy structure, the growing electric vehicle market and the energy storage market drive the demand for lithium batteries, superimposed on the epidemic factor, and the price of lithium raw materials continues to rise. As of February 2022, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, the main raw material, exceeded 450,000 yuan/ton, a record high.
Sodium-ion batteries cost 30% less than lithium iron phosphate
Sodium-ion batteries may occupy the leading position of new energy
According to data from the China National Financial Securities Research Institute, as of 2020, nearly 60% of the world's lithium reserves are distributed in South America and Oceania. Although China's lithium reserves are ranked sixth in the world, it is difficult to meet the huge demand in the domestic market. The abundance of lithium is very low, with a crustal abundance of only 0.006%, and most of them are concentrated in South America, causing supply anxiety for major battery manufacturers.
In contrast, the crustal abundance of sodium resources is as high as 2.5%, which is not only the sixth most abundant element in the crust, but also has a relatively uniform global distribution. According to the research of the Zhongke Haina team, the cost of raw materials for copper-based sodium-ion batteries is 0.29 yuan/Wh, the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 0.43 yuan/Wh, and the cost of lead-acid batteries is 0.40 yuan/Wh. The cost of sodium-ion battery materials has significant costs. Advantage, about 1/3 lower than lithium iron phosphate battery.
The main reasons for the low cost of sodium-ion batteries are:
1. Sodium is one of several elements with higher content in the earth's crust, 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than lithium abundance. The raw material sodium carbonate is rich in resources and the price is low and stable, and the price will remain at 1000-4000 yuan / ton in 10 years;
2. The cathode materials in sodium-ion batteries are mostly iron, manganese, copper and other elements, which almost get rid of the dependence on the relatively low abundance and expensive nickel and cobalt elements, and have a wider range of choices;
3. The hard carbon process used in the negative electrode has lower requirements and has low-cost potential;
4. The sodium ion anode current collector can use cheaper aluminum foil to replace the copper foil current collector in the traditional lithium-ion battery, thereby further reducing the cost of the battery.
In the large-scale commercial application of sodium-ion batteries, energy storage also has a broad market space.
Industry insiders said that at present, the energy storage market is larger than the electric vehicle market, and the cost requirements are lower than that of electric vehicles, but the energy density of sodium-ion batteries is lower, and the volume is 20%-30% larger than that of lithium batteries, so mobile phones, notebooks High-end application scenarios such as computers are not the main battlefield of sodium-ion batteries.
The new energy access market is not sensitive to volume requirements, and will become the main battlefield of sodium-ion batteries. Large-scale energy storage systems (ESS), 5G base stations, household energy storage, Tesla's powerwall, photovoltaics, and wind energy will all be the main battlefields for sodium-ion batteries.
In 2030, the scale of global energy storage will exceed US$1 billion, and the CAGR will reach 142% in 2020-2030. As the global energy transition is imminent, governments around the world have successively introduced carbon-neutral solutions, and the demand for new energy storage has become stronger. By 2030, if the penetration rate of new energy storage on the power generation side and the user side reaches more than 60%, the new global energy storage market demand will reach 1361Gwh, and the ten-year CAGR will exceed 150%. The Chinese market energy storage will also exceed 660Gwh, and the industry scale will reach 3.31 billion yuan.
Explosive growth of energy storage in China
Sodium-ion batteries may occupy the leading position of new energy
Energy storage power stations are not limited by energy density, and low-cost sodium-ion batteries can meet various requirements for energy storage, and the low-temperature safety of sodium-ion batteries further broadens the application scenarios of supporting energy storage.
The rapidly expanding energy storage market is expected to drive the industrialization of sodium-ion batteries. The proportion of electrochemical energy storage in the newly added energy storage has jumped, and the preferred advantage of lithium-ion batteries accounting for 90% has laid a "stimulus" for the development of sodium-ion batteries with similar performance and better cost.
The energy storage market has a very broad future space, and sodium-ion batteries are also facing fierce competition from various energy storage methods (hydrogen fuel cells, vanadium batteries, flywheel energy storage, etc.). In addition to cost control, sodium-ion batteries need to be precisely controlled in terms of consistency and safety, and actively expand their applications in low-temperature regions, high-power energy storage and other fields to explore their irreplaceability.
At present, nearly 30 companies around the world have begun to deploy sodium-ion batteries, and the applications of energy storage and electric vehicles are flourishing. In addition to Faradion, Tiamat and Zhongke Haina, the world's three largest sodium-ion battery manufacturers, more than 20 companies including Natron Energy in the United States and China Na-Innovative Energy have deployed commercial sodium-ion batteries and gradually expanded their industrial applications, including energy storage. Power station, 5G base station, vehicle battery, etc.
