The new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused an impact on China's lithium battery industry chain, which has had a major impact on the procurement, production and delivery of related companies. The current domestic supply of lithium batteries for vehicles is not tense, the overall market supply exceeds demand, and the possibility of a sustained rise in battery costs is unlikely, but if the epidemic aggravates overseas, it will affect the production of batteries later.
The outbreak of the epidemic led to a slowdown in the supply chain logistics of lithium batteries?
As the new coronavirus outbreak spreads, hidden risks in the global battery supply chain are exposed. Because countries that play a key role in producing other metals needed to manufacture lithium batteries have introduced restrictions to control the spread of the virus. The pressures felt by companies in the battery supply chain during the new coronavirus outbreak are significant, and they are not limited to their industries.
The new coronavirus outbreak has caused a logistical slowdown across the lithium battery supply chain and has jeopardized production and use across the globe. Australia, a major producer of lithium, has asked members of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies to pay strict attention to intercontinental travel restrictions; in South America Chile has implemented a national ban, parts of Santiago are under quarantine, and Argentina has implemented quarantine measures nationwide; Africa is facing disruptions in cobalt supply due to border and port closures in South Africa and the implementation of a quarantine policy in the Congo, a producer of the raw material cobalt.
At present, the supply of lithium carbonate for domestic lithium battery manufacturers mainly includes Qinghai, Tibet, Jiangxi and Australia, Chile and other places in China, which is still in a state of supply exceeding demand. Nickel sulfate in the battery industry demand is relatively small only 4%, does not have the upside, and the main producing countries in Southeast Asia. The greater impact on the lithium battery industry is cobalt metal, which originates in Congo, the world's richest country in cobalt reserves. 2019 cobalt raw material production in the country accounted for about 67% of global raw material production.
Lithium battery prices may rise due to the outbreak of the epidemic?
The new energy vehicle industry chain is facing a huge test due to the impact of the new crown epidemic. Although the domestic epidemic prevention and control has achieved obvious results and the power battery industry has gradually resumed production, the overseas epidemic is spreading rapidly, and companies such as Panasonic Battery, LG Chemical and Samsung SDI have announced production suspension. In addition, the outbreak of the overseas epidemic has led to a slowdown in the logistics of the entire lithium battery supply chain and may jeopardize the production and use of power batteries around the world, and battery prices may rise.
Cutting battery costs has been the most pressing challenge for the electric vehicle industry, and the possibility of a cut in raw material supply has undoubtedly exacerbated the difficulty of cost reduction. The cost of ternary lithium batteries is stuck in the neck by "cobalt", car companies and battery companies are using other ways to achieve the effect of cost reduction, these changes can reduce the cost while improving the energy density of the battery; the performance of the "cobalt-free battery" based on the laminated sheet process was introduced. The performance of the "cobalt-free battery" based on the stacking process can reach the same level of the high energy density NCM811 power battery, and the material cost is reduced by 5%-15%.
The epidemic led to the blockage of transportation and logistics channels between provinces and cities, and the sharp increase in logistics costs affected the industry chain prices. Due to the recent domestic logistics restrictions, the seller of raw materials and logistics and transport prices up, some lithium battery materials transaction prices have increased. Short-term price increases are not sustainable, if the epidemic is alleviated logistics channel is eased, the relevant costs will naturally fall, so the logistics costs of lithium battery material prices are not strong, the impact will be reduced with the control of the epidemic.
Overall, from the supply side, the continued impact of the epidemic on the lithium battery industry is inevitable, but as a quarter for the off-season industry, the increase in logistics costs and the resumption of production capacity due to the reduction in the overall industry, the impact of sustainability is low, is expected to gradually stabilize along with the pneumonia epidemic, lithium battery industry supply will gradually recover, in the medium and long term, the boom of the lithium battery industry rebound Still need to be considered from the demand side.
With the rising proportion of lithium batteries in China's new energy vehicles, lithium battery market space is vast, the current epidemic affects the supply chain of lithium battery materials, resulting in the development of lithium battery industry is hampered, but in the overall promotion of new energy vehicles, coupled with the gradual control of the epidemic, lithium batteries will remain at a high level of development.
