According to the "Future Energy Scenario Report" released by the British grid operator National Grid, in an ideal scenario, the UK needs to deploy more than 50GW of energy storage systems by 2050 to achieve the net zero target.
National Grid publishes one such survey each year, which outlines four different scenarios for the UK's energy future to 2050, including the installed capacity of energy storage systems (covering all energy storage technologies, including battery storage) required for each scenario. energy systems, pumped hydro storage, compressed air energy storage systems, etc.).
In a 'deficit' scenario, where the net zero target is not achieved, the UK will have only around 22GW/60GWh of energy storage by 2050.
While both the 'power system transition' and 'consumer transition' scenarios achieve net zero emissions, the 'consumer transition' scenario involves higher social changes such as electrified heating, consumer willingness to change behaviour, high energy efficiency and demand-side flexibility. By 2050, in the "power system transformation" scenario, the UK needs to deploy 32GW/115GWh of energy storage systems, and in the "consumer transformation" scenario, about 40GW/165GWh of energy storage systems need to be deployed.
Currently, the vast majority of flexibility services provided by the UK electricity system, totalling almost 18TWh, come from natural gas. As of the end of 2021, non-gas flexible assets include 25.8GWh of pumped hydro power generation facilities and 1.6GWh of battery storage systems.
As more and more of the UK's electricity comes from renewable sources that rely on intermittent generation, in all cases the installed capacity of energy storage systems will increase to ensure peak demand can be met reliably.
National Grid expects that by 2050, battery storage systems will account for the largest share of deployed storage capacity in all scenarios to help alter electricity demand throughout the day and manage grid congestion during peak periods.
But in terms of energy storage capacity (GWh), pumped hydro is likely to still dominate. The report expects this to increase to 65GWh by 2030 and 84GWh by 2050.
According to the Trendsetter scenario, the installed capacity of battery energy storage systems will increase to 20GW by 2030 and 35GW by 2050. By 2050, battery storage systems with an average duration of less than four hours will reach 35GW, the report said.
For non-battery energy storage technologies, large-scale inter-seasonal energy storage systems of 11 to 56 TWh may be required by 2050. However, this amount depends on the rollout of green hydrogen, hydrogen storage and other flexible energy assets.
Due to market drivers, the average duration of battery storage systems is likely to increase from one to two hours to more than four hours in the coming years, the report said.
