On the morning of December 28, entrepreneurs Summit on how to solve the security dilemma of supply chain of lithium battery industry held in Qingdao, Shandong Province, Evey of the institute for economic research institute research department general manager/Chinese battery industry making made titled "lithium electricity industry chain, each link of supply and demand outlook, the theme of the speech, to share the downstream application market review and prospect of lithium electricity, lithium electricity industry chain each link such as supply and demand outlook, battery key chose some of its wonderful view, with readers:
Power Batteries, Lithium batteries, Battery Materials, Entrepreneur Summit
Wu Hui, General Manager of Research Department of IVEY Economic Research Institute/President of China Battery Industry Research Institute
In 2025, the global demand for power battery will reach 1268.4GWh
According to the data shared by Wu Hui, new energy vehicles usher in the stage of market-oriented development in the world. In 2021, the global new energy vehicles will reach 6.65 million, among which, China's production and sales will reach 3.5 million; It is estimated that the global production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 22.4 million in 2025 and 47.81 million in 2030.
After China, Europe and the US are the world's biggest markets. Since 2021, China's new energy vehicle market has developed beyond expectations, and its penetration rate has exceeded that of Europe and the United States. As of September this year, the penetration rate of neVs in the global market was about 10 percent, compared with 16 percent in China, 14 percent in Europe and only 5 percent in the United States.
At the same time, with the gradual increase of the proportion of renewable energy, the rapid growth of photovoltaic and wind power installations will drive the large-scale development of energy storage power stations. Wu Hui predicted that in 2025, the accumulative installed scale of global electrochemical energy storage power stations will reach 150GW, and by 2030, it will reach 550GW.
In addition, the future development of communication base station energy storage, home energy storage is also worth looking forward to. Other fields, such as electric heavy truck, electric forklift, electric replacement, electric two-wheel vehicle, electric tools, 3C and other fields will still maintain a steady growth rate. Mr. Wu expects China to produce 15,000 electric trucks by 2025. There will be 700,000 electric forklifts in China. Shipments of electric two-wheelers in China will reach 83 million units, global power tools and vacuum cleaners will reach 670 million units and 250 million units, and the global demand for lithium batteries in the traditional 3C sector will reach 200GWh.
Thanks to the expected improvement of the downstream demand market, wu hui estimated that the global power battery demand in 2025 will reach 1268.4GWh, plus small batteries and energy storage batteries, the total shipments will reach 1615GWh; In 2030, the global demand for power battery will reach 3083.5GWh, including small battery and energy storage battery, the total shipment will reach 3927GWh. "These forecasts have been revised upwards as the market has outperformed expectations." Wu Hui stressed.
Supply and demand will be tight in many links of lithium electric industry chain
Under the high growth of lithium battery demand, and the upstream industry chain is not well prepared, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, anode and cathode materials, electrolyte, diaphragm and other related battery materials generally appear tight supply and demand.
In the field of cathode materials, Wu Hui believes that LFP material production capacity is tight before 2025, after 2025 terpolymer material demand will rise rapidly.
According to EVTank's incomplete statistics, China currently has a production capacity of 607,000 tons of LFP materials. According to the capacity planning of major enterprises, the total production capacity of LFP materials in China will reach 1.942 million tons by 2025. From the demand side, the global demand for LFP materials in 2025 will be 1.955 million tons. Considering that the new capacity will not be fully released, LFP materials are generally tight until 2025.
In 2025, Chinese enterprises plan the production capacity of NCM/NCA cathode materials to be 1.94 million tons, which will exceed 2.5 million tons including overseas production capacity, while the global demand will be 1.663 million tons in 2025. Therefore, the overall supply of terpolymer material production capacity is relatively loose before 2025.
In addition, according to the demand of different anode materials for lithium metal, converted into lithium carbonate, Wu Hui estimated that the global demand for lithium carbonate for lithium battery in 2025 will reach 1.21 million tons, and the demand for lithium carbonate for lithium battery in 2030 will reach 3.104 million tons. The annual demand for lithium carbonate in traditional industries is about 120,000 tons. In terms of supply, it is estimated that the effective supply of lithium carbonate in the world will be about 1.2 million tons in 2025, so lithium carbonate resources will be in a tight balance in the next five years. The market will meet the growth of downstream demand by increasing effective supply.
In the field of anode materials, Wu Hui said that the overall capacity of the anode industry is sufficient, but the key link is graphitization, and there is uncertainty in the project production. It is estimated that the global demand for anode materials for lithium batteries will reach 2.262million tons in 2025, and will reach 5.499,000 tons in 2030. In terms of supply, according to incomplete statistics, the production capacity of cathode materials of major Chinese enterprises in 2025 will reach 2.817 million tons. Including some overseas production capacity, the global production capacity of cathode materials exceeds the demand. However, the anode material belongs to the high energy consumption industry, considering that part of the capacity can not be fully put into production because of the energy consumption index, and the graphitization link is the key link to restrict the capacity release of the anode material. Therefore, the whole anode material industry is basically in the balance of supply and demand in the future.
In the field of diaphragm, Wu Hui predicted that the global demand for diaphragm for lithium battery will reach 32.32 billion square meters in 2025 and 78.56 billion square meters in 2030. According to incomplete statistics, the planned production capacity of major global enterprises in 2025 is 28.7 billion square meters, and the main capacity expansion plan is concentrated in Chinese enterprises. Considering the capacity structure of dry diaphragm and wet diaphragm, as well as the capacity structure of head and tail enterprises, the effective capacity may be smaller. If there is no new capacity input, the supply of the entire diaphragm industry will be tight.
In the field of electrolyte, Wu Hui's judgment is that electrolyte planning overcapacity, stuck in the link of lithium salt and additives: it is expected that the global demand for lithium battery electrolyte in 2025 will reach 1.842 million tons, and in 2030 will reach 4.478 million tons. On the supply side, according to incomplete statistics, in 2025, the electrolyte planning capacity of major global enterprises total 3.3 million tons, if all in accordance with the plan to put into production, capacity will be excess, but the core link of the electrolyte industry chain is not the electrolyte itself, but in the upstream lithium salt and additives.
In the copper foil field, Wu Predicted that the global copper foil demand for lithium batteries would reach 1.293 million tons in 2025 and 3.142 million tons in 2030. According to incomplete statistics, the planned capacity of lithium copper foil of major global enterprises in 2025 is 1,068,000 tons, which is seriously insufficient.
About Manly
More than 12 years of experience in producing lithium battery cells and battery packs for various applications. Welcome to send your requiry to info@manlybattery.com
