The AI chat robot ChatGPT released by AI research institute OpenAI on November 30, 2022 has become a phenomenal consumer AI application. The number of live users has exceeded one million in less than one week and one hundred million in two months.
1、 Principle and characteristics of ChatGPT
（1） Principle
ChatGPT is a new artificial chat robot released by OPENAI. It is a homologous model with InstinctGPT, which is trained based on GPT-3 model. It is an imperative command. In simple terms, it is to train a cold start model and a feedback model of reinforcement learning through manual annotation, and then learn a conversation-friendly ChatGPT through reinforcement learning.
（2） Features
1. Strong learning ability.
2. Have certain logical analysis ability.
3. Its question-and-answer and interaction will not lead to incorrect answers.
2、 Shortcomings and defects of ChatGPT
（1） Technical dimension
From the perspective of its own technical principles, its massive training is actually based on existing data, data and knowledge, asking some questions that have been concluded and have answers, and its retrieval ability, collection ability and integration ability are very strong. However, for new knowledge, it may not be able to answer some innovative and challenging questions, or questions it has not encountered, or questions it has not trained in the database.
（2） Work dimension
Now many people are worried about whether their work will be affected by ChatGPT. For some simple and repetitive work, primary collection, collation and verification, including some simple customer service answers, may be replaced. However, at a deeper level, the work with a certain degree of innovation, with a certain emotional color, needs to communicate with people, and based on a lot of experience, such as psychological counseling for students' personality, ChatGPT is not competent at present. So don't be blindly pessimistic.
（3） Realization dimension
For any good product, we should finally think about how to realize it. If you simply rely on the question and answer of the intelligent voice robot to recharge, a large number of users may play it, and the novelty will pass, and it will not recharge. If customized services are provided, the training cost is very high. For example, let ChatGPT do an investment analysis. Under the current technical path, its possible results can only be simple data collection. If we want to reach the level of high-level analysts, we need to pay more energy and time costs. Therefore, the developers of ChatGPT are now faced with a dilemma: for popular development, we may not pay for it if our enthusiasm is over; For professional field development, the user may not pay enough to support the development cost.
（4） Resource dimension
It is worth noting that both Google and the Internet platform have certain technical reserves and resources. Seeing the development prospects of ChatGPT, everyone has begun to step up the layout. In the A-share market these days, the stock prices of listed companies in related industries have risen rapidly. ChatGPT is a disruptive new technology with good prospects for development and will have an important impact on us in the future. However, at present, there are some congenital deficiencies in terms of its technical route, job substitution and commercialization, and further development is needed.
（5） Regulatory dimension
The chief technical officer of Open AI, an AI research company, said that ChatGPT may "fabricate facts", which is no different from other AI tools based on language models. It is now necessary for regulators to intervene to prevent the potential negative impact of generative AI systems such as ChatGPT on society. For companies such as OpenAI, the most important thing is to introduce it into public awareness in a controlled and responsible way. The company also needs help from regulators, the government and even everyone. It is "not too early" to supervise ChatGPT now.
（6） Legal dimension
AIGC (artificial intelligence generated content) generated by ChatGPT in the process of dialogue with users may imply the risk of copyright infringement. If ChatGPT provides text, photography, audition and other works or software code created by others in the process of feedback to users' questions, as long as it exceeds the reasonable use limit of comments, introductions and so on, it is also an infringement of others' right to information network transmission. These "answers" of AIGC are all online open source data, which are produced through large-scale pre-training models. They definitely draw on the intellectual property rights of human beings. If the legal step is larger, the intellectual property rights of human beings may not be guaranteed.
To some extent, ChatGPT can indeed replace some basic manual work, such as simple data integration and search, forming basic research ideas, and changing some original business models. However, it is not advisable to excessively pursue or worry about the impact of ChatGPT. First of all, new technologies are produced every day. We should not be alarmed because of the production of new technologies; Secondly, everything should be divided into two parts. On the one hand, it may subvert the original business model and work, but at the same time, it may also improve work efficiency, improve quality, reduce costs and increase efficiency, which is more conducive to intelligent and digital transformation, making many work easier and more efficient.
Globally, AIGC industries such as ChatGPT are still in the market exploration stage, and there is still a long way to go to achieve stable output and mature commercialization. There is great uncertainty in the development of AI technology. At present, the application of ChatGPT technology is still in a relatively preliminary stage. Whether it can really benefit from the development of ChatGPT technology remains to be seen. If the technology can not reach the commercialization level in the future, the heat may ebb after a period of time, and the volatility in the later period is large. It is also uncertain whether ChatGPT will be used in the subsequent business. In the medium and short term, although ChatGPT has a higher technical level than other AI chat tools, it still has not reached the ideal state. Its product iteration and ecological establishment still need some time. At present, the business model is still unclear, and the operating cost is high. It is expected that ChatGPT will not bring substantial disruption to the industrial ecosystem, including the search engine giant, for the time being.
