Not long ago, the state announced the "Methods of Action to Promote the Development of the Automotive Power Lithium-ion Battery Industry", which put forward the development direction and requirements of power lithium-ion batteries. The state has just issued the "Mid-Long-Term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry", which once again affirmed the pillar status of the automobile industry, clarified the industrial environment in which Chinese brands are the mainstay, and clarified the development direction of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles under the legal environment. Regarding new energy passenger vehicles, products that are well received but not so popular for the time being should further improve their quality and reduce costs. Among them, one of the key components, power lithium-ion batteries, is the key to reducing costs. Although power lithium-ion batteries have achieved good results in cost reduction, they are still facing many pressures and a series of challenges. Cost reduction and development have become the topic of resonance in the industry.
1. Policy review
According to the several target requirements of the "Methods of Action to Promote the Development of the Automotive Power Lithium-ion Battery Industry": From the perspective of the scale of the industry, the total output of the power lithium-ion battery industry in 2020 will exceed 100 billion watt-hours, and the production and sales scale of a single leading company will exceed 40 billion watt-hours. , That is, the scale of supporting new energy passenger vehicles is about 1.3 million; from the perspective of product performance, it is simply that the power lithium-ion battery system and the energy density of the monomer have been greatly improved, and the product safety meets the needs of large-scale use; In terms of parts and components, the upstream industry chain has achieved balanced and coordinated development, with no missing links and international competitiveness; from the perspective of high-end equipment supporting industries, power lithium-ion battery production equipment has been automated and intelligent to achieve substantial cost reductions.
The new energy vehicle R&D and promotion application project mentioned in the "Mid and Long-term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" clearly proposes that by 2020 the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million, and the specific energy of power lithium-ion battery cells will reach more than 300 Wh/kg. , And strive to achieve 350 watt-hours/kg, the system specific energy strives to reach 260 watt-hours/kg, and the cost is reduced to less than 1 yuan/watt-hour. By 2025, new energy vehicles will account for more than 20% of vehicle production and sales, and the specific energy of the power lithium-ion battery system will reach 350 watt-hours/kg.
Combined with the policy situation, we can find that the cost of power lithium-ion batteries will be closely related to economies of scale, technology research and development, production equipment, and upstream and downstream industrial chains. The author believes that the cost reduction of power lithium-ion batteries is still adapted to the barrel theory, that is, there is a shortcoming The board will fall short. Appropriate cost reduction and development itself are not in conflict, but if the cost control ability is not strong, the necessary investment continues, and the profitability level is still declining, the company may face a dilemma of great pressure.
2. Analysis of the influencing factors of the cost of power lithium-ion battery
1. Economies of scale are an inevitable choice
In recent years, there has been an upsurge in the development of new energy vehicles at home and abroad. The key component attributes and market prosperity of power lithium-ion batteries have attracted a large amount of social capital investment. Up to now, there have been more than 20 new energy powertrain and BMS companies above the designated size in China, and 170 new energy vehicle battery companies. Among them, in 2016, the power lithium-ion battery production companies BYD and CATL shipped 7.35GWh and 6.72GWh respectively, with a total market share of more than 50%; the market share of Walmart and Guoxuan Hi-Tech were 8.9% and 6.6% respectively, and the remaining 100 Many companies shipped less than 1Gh of power lithium-ion batteries in 2016 (the largest company's shipments were close to 33,000 passenger cars). Judging from the operating conditions of typical companies above the designated size, in 2015, CATL power lithium-ion battery sales revenue was 5.7 billion yuan, profit was 1 billion yuan, and the sales revenue in the first half of 2016 was about 3.5 billion yuan; in 2016, Guoxuan Hi-Tech Power Lithium-ion Battery Battery operating income was 4.075 billion yuan, accounting for 85.64% of operating income, a year-on-year increase of 90.84%. It can be preliminarily judged that the power lithium-ion battery business is the mainstay of rising profits for battery companies above designated size.
Figure 1 The market share of domestic power lithium-ion batteries in 2016
However, combined with the "Methods of Action to Promote the Development of the Automotive Power Lithium-ion Battery Industry", the total shipments of BYD and CATL are about 14 billion watt-hours, which is 65% behind the target of the leading company of 40 billion watt-hours; it only accounts for 100 billion. 14% of the industry's total output of watt-hours. Therefore, the entire power lithium-ion battery industry is still in a period of "competition for hegemony". Facing a "fishy storm"-like "merger and acquisition war in the new century", large-scale is an important prerequisite for the company's survival. Only a large enough scale can share the cost of R&D costs, manufacturing equipment, and manpower input. As long as the output reaches a certain level, the cost can be brought down.
2. R&D investment cannot be saved
According to CATL President Huang Shilin, the key to doing a good job of power lithium-ion batteries lies in "sufficient technology accumulation, continuous and large investment", which is also a true portrayal of the power lithium-ion battery industry. At present, domestic power lithium-ion battery companies continue to increase R&D investment while expanding their production scale. According to domestic practice, the R&D investment of leading companies in the manufacturing industry is about 2% to 3% of operating income, with a very small number of about 5%. Take CATL as an example. At present, CATL’s annual R&D investment is 5%-6% of sales. The Institute has more than 150 doctors and more than 1,000 masters. It plans to invest more than 30 billion yuan to develop R&D and production upgrades by 2020. It is planned to form an effective output of 50G watt-hours. What's more, some domestic power lithium-ion battery companies, such as AVIC Lithium Battery, account for 15% of operating income. Chaowei Chuangyuan plans to invest more than 20% of operating income. This shows the technology research and development of power lithium-ion batteries. The industrialization of power lithium-ion batteries is very important. The investment in technology research and development must reach a certain level, and the investment in research and development cannot be saved.
3. It is difficult to put power lithium-ion battery equipment into braking
According to the data from Gaogong Lithium, invest in the construction of a 1GWh lithium-ion battery construction project. If domestic equipment is used, the investment will probably be 500 to 600 million yuan, of which the value of the equipment accounts for about 60%, and the corresponding domestic equipment cost is about 300 to 360 million yuan. , And the foreign price of equivalent equipment is about 480-540 million yuan, and the price of some important equipment abroad is more than twice the price of domestic equipment.
As can be seen from the above table, taking BYD and CATL as examples, if the 40 billion watt-hour requirements of the "Action Method to Promote the Development of the Automotive Power Lithium-ion Battery Industry" and the high degree of automation and intelligence are to be met, a rough estimate of Scenario 1 and Scenario 1 Under the second situation, BYD and CATL will invest in new power lithium-ion battery production lines with a capital of 15 to 27 billion yuan and 16.25 to 29.25 billion yuan, respectively. The investment in pure power lithium-ion battery equipment will reach 9 to 16.2 billion yuan. The level of 97.5-17.55 billion yuan.
Since the manufacturing industry of lithium-power lithium-ion battery production equipment is a non-standardized equipment industry, the performance of the equipment must be continuously improved according to the changes in the production process of customers. In the process, there will be equipment upgrade costs, equipment depreciation costs, and equipment maintenance costs. Will continue to bring challenges to the power lithium-ion battery industry. All in all, the equipment investment is a bit tasteless and the cost is high, but the investment still has to be continued and the brakes are difficult.
4. Moths will inevitably appear in the industrial chain
The ecological environment of the industrial chain will directly affect the company's cost fluctuations and control capabilities. The power lithium-ion battery industry chain is long, which not only forms a close supporting relationship with the entire vehicle, but also extracts mineral resources to batteries and battery packs, and finally recycles, forming a closed loop of the power lithium-ion battery system. The author believes that vehicle cost reduction conduction, gaming costs, and pressure on the cost of key components and materials will inevitably be encountered by power lithium-ion battery companies in their development.
(1) Invisible pressure on vehicle companies
Vehicle companies are masters of the automotive industry and will directly determine whether power lithium-ion battery companies can enter the core supply chain. Therefore, to a large extent, the decline in power lithium-ion battery prices is the general trend. With the introduction of a series of domestic power lithium-ion battery policies, the industry market concentration will increase, the company's pace of expansion will accelerate, and the company's net profit will decline to a certain extent. In addition, since the subsidy declined by 20% in 2017, the company will further optimize and adjust the model structure and model ratio based on the dual-point policy and market demand, and will further reduce the cost of power lithium-ion batteries. Batteries may follow price cuts, and battery prices and company profits may usher in an inflection point. In 2016, the unit price of ternary batteries is 1000-1100/kwh, and the net profit is about 10%, after PACK is 1850 yuan/kwh; the unit price of lithium iron phosphate PACK is about 2100-2300 yuan/kwh, and the net profit is about 15-25%. Combined with the subsidy of domestic new energy vehicles, in the future, passenger cars and commercial vehicles (passenger cars, logistics vehicles) may adopt the ternary battery technology route as the mainstream, and the price reduction of ternary batteries will be more drastic. Based on the transmission of price pressure, ordinary manufacturers Net profit reaches 3-5%, and high-quality manufacturers with cost advantages 5-10%. It is expected that in 2017, the ternary PACK will be reduced to 1500 yuan/kwh, and the lithium iron phosphate PACK will be reduced to 1800 yuan/kwh.
(2) Vehicle companies are eyeing
Domestic vehicle companies have never been vegetarians, and closely follow the development process of power lithium-ion battery companies. Everyone knows that power lithium-ion batteries are the key core components of new energy vehicles. They still account for 30% or more of the vehicle's selling price, and the cost accounts for about 40%. So, for such an important component company, it is equivalent to the "heart" of new energy vehicles. Currently, most vehicle companies do not have enough reserves and deposits. This will surely speed up the joint venture and cooperation between vehicle and power lithium-ion battery companies, such as BAIC. Joint ventures with South Korea's SK and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, SAIC and A123 joint ventures.
However, from the perspective of the history of vehicle development, mainstream traditional vehicle companies at home and abroad have their own core component-the engine in order to seek development and differentiated competition. In the same way, in the future, new energy vehicle companies will also seek profit and achieve differentiated competition, and they are likely to seek holdings or mergers and acquisitions of power lithium-ion battery companies. Even the current Tesla has its own power lithium-ion battery company. Therefore, in a certain stage of industrial development, vehicle companies will inevitably accelerate the holding of power battery parts and components. By then, vehicle and power lithium-ion battery companies will add a certain game cost.
(3) Key materials conduct cost pressure
Domestic power lithium-ion battery companies not only face the risk of rising prices of upstream raw materials, but are also subject to the supply of high-end key materials, which will directly conduct cost pressures on power lithium-ion battery companies. In terms of prices, the prices of raw materials such as cobalt, nickel, copper, and lithium carbonate continue to rise. Since most domestic power lithium-ion battery companies have accumulated less, it is difficult to extract and recycle waste batteries with higher efficiency and lower cost. Control costs; from the perspective of product quality, domestic key materials such as positive electrodes, negative electrodes, diaphragms, and electrolytes have all made great progress, but they still have to be purchased and imported in large quantities from abroad. In particular, the cathode material industry is relatively obvious. Foreign cathode material companies such as 3M of the United States and Umicore of Belgium dominate the industry by virtue of their advantages in technology and standards, which restrict the supply and cost control of cathode materials to a certain extent.
3. Relevant development suggestions
To sum up, the current domestic power lithium-ion battery cost reduction and development are facing the requirements of economies of scale, the cost increase of each link centered on the industrial chain, the pressure transmission of new energy vehicle cost reduction, and the increase of game cost. The situation is that the company is facing the dilemma of spending more and making less money. Therefore, domestic power lithium-ion battery companies must face up to themselves and not be presumptuous, and pay attention to the issues of “scale, R&D investment, equipment investment, and industrial chain costs” involved in the healthy development of the power lithium-ion battery industry, and they must be able to create a new energy solution. A new path for the new ecology of the automobile industry. In recent years, a number of outstanding companies such as BYD and CATL have emerged. Among them, CATL has also entered the BMW car battery supplier system, which is worthy of pride. For the overall development and cost reduction of the power lithium-ion battery industry in the future, the following specific suggestions can be considered:
One is to improve the policy system. The power lithium-ion battery industry is a typical capital and technology-intensive company. It should ensure the continuity of industry policies and reduce production and R&D costs; continue to encourage and support the technological innovation of power lithium-ion batteries and the update and iteration of smart devices.
The second is to draw lessons from the development of the traditional auto parts industry, accelerate the establishment of a technological innovation system for the power lithium-ion battery industry, and build a complete supply chain system. Make every effort to tackle the basic theories of power lithium-ion battery development, high-end production equipment, key component materials, components, component assemblies, extraction and recycling, and other product technologies, to achieve basic scientific research, differentiated technology application research, and forward-looking platform technology research In order to realize the solid development of the industry.
The third is to establish a good overall coordination relationship and continue to deepen the collaboration and joint venture cooperation between the vehicle and the power lithium-ion battery company.
All in all, the road to reduce the cost of power lithium-ion batteries must be adhered to, but the healthy and orderly development of the power lithium-ion battery industry must be taken into account. It is summarized in 6 key words, namely, “control the total amount, optimize the environment, improve the quality, and create the brand. , Promote transformation and increase efficiency"!
Manly Battery which located in Shenzhen,China. A leading Lithium battery manufacturer over 12 years ,pls feel free tosend email to info@manlybatteries.com
