In 2021, with the gradual easing of the impact of COVID-19, various economic activities will fully recover, and the global LED market will reach US$17.65 billion (+15.4% YoY), with a higher-than-expected growth rate.
Looking forward to the future, with the gradual increase of Mini LED backlight and display, the continuous increase in the penetration rate of automotive LEDs, the continuous increase in the demand for high-end lighting, and the further expansion of display applications, TrendForce estimates the LED market in 2026. The output value is expected to grow to US$30.312 billion, with a compound growth rate of 11% from 2021 to 2026.
In the next few years, the demand for Micro/Mini LED will be the main driving force for LED chip manufacturers to expand production. Therefore, in addition to manufacturers in mainland China, manufacturers in Taiwan (Epistar), Europe and the United States (ams OSRAM), Japan and South Korea will also expand production. need. The newly added production capacity mainly comes from the demand for Micro/Mini LED, so it is estimated that the proportion of 6-inch/8-inch wafer production will increase year by year.
1. Micro/Mini LED market
In 2021, the demand for Mini LED backlight and Mini LED direct display will increase significantly. Driven by leading manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung, more and more manufacturers will launch Mini LED related products. In the sub-field, the application with the most growth momentum.
In the Micro LED market, after a detailed review of the current state of the industry, TrendForce believes that the overall status of indicators such as technical challenges, cost structure, and suppliers capable of mass production are much more conservative than before, and the Micro LED industry may need more A long time to achieve mass production. However, Micro LED is still the most important development direction of the LED industry in the future, among which the market potential of large-scale displays, wearable devices and head-mounted devices is unlimited.
2. Automotive LED market
With the dual growth momentum of the overall automotive market shipments and the penetration rate of LED lighting, the global automotive LED market will achieve rapid growth in 2021. Headlights and automotive displays are the biggest driving forces for the growth of the automotive LED market.
In the long run, the penetration rate of LED headlights will continue to increase, and with the emergence of new technologies such as ADB, the output value of LED headlights will continue to grow; the trend of large-scale automotive displays will continue to drive the demand for automotive display backlight LEDs growth.
The intelligent ambient light adopts RGB LED with built-in driver IC, which not only simplifies the circuit design, but also improves the flexibility of product application. Intelligent ambient lighting will be applied to high-end car models from 2022, resulting in an annual growth in the overall ambient lighting market output value, which will grow to US$248 million in 2026.
3. Display market
Benefiting from the obvious recovery of various sports events and business activities, the global LED display market demand has recovered. Although the market demand has declined in 2H21 due to factors such as rising overseas transportation costs and government budget reductions, overall, the display LED market size will still grow significantly in 2021.
In addition, scenarios for cross-border applications of LED displays are constantly being developed, such as conference spaces, home theaters, cinemas, virtual shooting, etc., which will also be the main driving force for the growth of the small-pitch display market in the next few years.
At the same time, Outdoor Display is mainly used in advertising, transportation, sports venues, Live Event and other markets, and the market size will continue to grow steadily from 2022 to 2026. It is worth noting that the 2022-2023 "hundred cities, thousand screens" plan is expected to promote the growth of the outdoor display screen market.
4. Invisible light market
Mainly include UV LED and IR LED. UV LEDs include UV-A LEDs and DUV LEDs. In 2021, with the popularity of vaccines and the decline in UV-C LED prices, the kinetic energy of UV-C LED market demand will slow down, and the global UV-C LED market size will decline significantly. However, in the field of UV-A LEDs, the market size has grown significantly due to the demand for 3D printing, LCD lamination, and wafer applications.
Under the long-term outlook, air sterilization and large-scale surface sterilization are still the key layout areas of leading home appliance brand manufacturers. At the same time, UV-C LEDs will also have the opportunity to be introduced into original automotive air conditioners, dynamic water sterilization, manufacturing facilities and factory automation applications, driving the market demand for UV-C LEDs year by year.
IR LED mainly includes applications such as safety monitoring, 2.5D face recognition, driving monitoring system and occupant monitoring system, eye tracking and so on. Benefiting from the stable market demand and price, the IR LED market size will grow slightly in 2021. In the long run, although applications such as driving monitoring systems, occupant monitoring systems, and eye tracking are still in their infancy, the demand for IR LEDs will continue to grow in the future.
5. Agricultural Lighting Market
After a year of rapid growth in 2020, the growth rate of agricultural lighting LED demand will decline significantly in 2021. Especially in 1H21, due to rising overseas transportation costs and the crackdown on illegal indoor marijuana cultivation in North America, the demand for plant lighting LEDs has weakened.
However, in the long run, there are more and more areas where cannabis is legalized (in 2022, 6 new states will be added to the legalized areas of medical cannabis in North America, and Thailand plans to legalize medical cannabis in 2H22), and the global extreme climate changes are becoming more and more frequent, indoor Agricultural planting has greatly improved the localization of food supply, shortening the food supply chain and improving the level of food safety. In the long run, the agricultural lighting market includes plant lighting, livestock lighting and fishing lights, and the market potential is worth looking forward to.
6. General Lighting Market
After experiencing the Sino-US trade conflict in 2019 and the continued downturn of COVID-19 in 2020 for two years, the LED lighting market will recover significantly in 2021, and with the price stop falling and the increase in the proportion of high-end lighting demand, 2021 The lighting LED market has grown significantly.
In the next few years, with the promotion of factors such as smart lighting and human-induced lighting, the demand for high-end lighting LEDs will continue to increase, and the market size of lighting LEDs will continue to grow.
