As the system energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is directly linked to the number of subsidies, forcing battery companies to improve energy density as soon as possible. In the absence of a breakthrough in material performance, some battery companies use lightweight, reduce the weight of the battery box and make the battery size to improve energy density, its safety, cycle life and actual mass production has been questioned by the industry.
Due to the limited role of improving material performance to enhance the specific energy of lithium-iron battery monomer, some battery companies use lightweight, reduce the weight of the battery box and make the battery shell thin to improve energy density. Lithium iron phosphate cells currently mass production of the highest energy density of 160wh/kg, next year will further improve, is expected to reach 170wh/kg.
Data show that in 2019, the market offer of lithium iron phosphate battery cells has fallen to below 0.7 yuan / Wh, while the offer of ternary battery cells hovers around 0.9 yuan / Wh, and the gap between the two began to widen. According to calculations, to 400km and 250km range models, for example, lithium iron phosphate after deducting the impact of subsidies than the ternary comprehensive cost of 5600 yuan and 3500 yuan respectively. Along with the full withdrawal of subsidies in 2021, the price advantage of lithium iron phosphate will continue to highlight.
In recent years, lithium iron phosphate energy density does improve a lot, will be launched in May-June 2020 a new generation of lithium-iron batteries, volume than the energy density will be increased by 50%, with higher safety and longer life, life can reach 8 years or 1.2 million kilometers, the cost can be reduced by 30%. In the framework of the existing material system, no matter how the technology is improved, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate power battery cells to reach 300Wh/kg hope are more confused, relatively speaking, the ternary technology route is more promising.
According to the report, it is expected that by 2020, the total demand for power batteries in China's new energy vehicle market will be close to 50 million kWh, of which, lithium iron phosphate batteries will also experience 2 years of slow growth, by 2019, the absolute demand will decline, and in 2020, the rapid decline to about 7.5 million kWh; it is expected that in 2018, the pure electric bus sector will be unblocked for ternary batteries, after which ternary The demand for ternary batteries will explode and will reach 42.5 million kWh by 2020, thus basically completing the domination of China's new energy vehicle market, while lithium iron phosphate batteries will shift the market center to the energy storage field.
Lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium battery safety comparison
The controversy about the safety of ternary and lithium iron phosphate has lasted for two or three years, especially in commercial electric vehicles, which battery should be used has been a wide range of opinions, before the industry has a "compromise" is that: different models use different batteries, such as passenger cars value range, the use of high energy ternary batteries, passenger cars are more important to safety The use of relatively low energy but higher stability of lithium iron phosphate.
Ternary lithium batteries will decompose at about 200 degrees, and decomposition will produce a more violent chemical reaction, so it is easier to catch fire in a car collision, which is also generally considered unsafe ternary lithium batteries, it is, for this reason, ternary lithium batteries were previously suspended in the bus.
However, the safety is actually more dependent on the entire power battery system, especially the battery management system, qualified BMS can be cut off in the event of an accident to avoid fire, and not just because the ternary lithium material is easy to pyrolysis ternary lithium batteries are considered unsafe. With the ternary lithium battery safety re-evaluated, the bus will be unbanned ternary lithium battery, which undoubtedly released a large piece of the market.
Lithium iron phosphate and ternary market battle, although there is no clear conclusion, and battery technology is changing rapidly, the near future ushered in a revolutionary change is expected, the technology has matured ternary batteries, with its high energy density and still have more room for improvement, not inferior safety, low-temperature resistance, high charging efficiency, and other characteristics, will stand firm in the new market.
