Power lithium battery price has been an important indicator of concern for people inside and outside the new energy vehicle industry, since the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market in 2014, the power lithium battery has been reducing prices, prices have dropped from higher than 3 yuan / Wh, to the current 1-1.2 yuan / Wh, the current price is only 1/3 of 2014, the future price will drop? When will the price drop? How much room is there for price reduction?
To answer the above questions, the hydrogen cloud chain will start from the following aspects:
1、The development stage of power lithium battery industry.
2、The value chain of power lithium battery industry.
3、The competition pattern of power lithium battery industry.
Hydrogen cloud chain reviews the development of the home appliance industry, it is not difficult to find that the power lithium battery industry is still in the rapid growth stage. China's home appliance industry import stage for 1987-1997, rising fast, the market size is small, low penetration; 1998-2007 home appliance growth stage, high investment in expansion, market penetration rose sharply, prices continue to fall; 2008 to present year home appliances into the mature stage, mergers and acquisitions added, market saturation, rise basically stopped, price cycle fluctuations. LED industry is also in LED industry is also undergoing a similar process.
Power lithium battery is currently in the growth phase, the important judgment based on.
1, is still in the stage of large-scale expansion of production (early 2019 so far statistics Japan and South Korea power lithium battery company planning investment scale reached 50 billion RMB, the amount of domestic investment projects involving new energy vehicles more than 100 billion yuan, power lithium battery is the most core components of new energy vehicles).
2, the current market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still low, less than 4% at the end of 2018. Therefore, according to the analysis of the industry development model, we can initially judge that the power lithium battery industry is in the rapid growth stage, and the price is in the downward channel.
Further, we analyze from the industrial value chain, the power lithium battery still has more than 20% price reduction space.
Power lithium battery upstream raw materials include cathode, anode, diaphragm, electrolyte, etc. These raw materials occupy 60-75% of the cost of power lithium batteries. Power lithium battery and important raw materials have some room for price reduction, cathode materials, electrolyte by the upstream lithium, cobalt ore prices, the current lithium, cobalt and other raw materials are still at a high level, it is expected that cathode materials still have 10-20% down space, electrolyte has 15-25% down space. Diaphragm is currently the raw material with the highest gross profit level, and is expected to have 10-25% decline. Anode still has about 10% down space.
Lithium-ion battery manufacturing still has room for optimization. Although lithium-ion battery manufacturing is now in the mass production stage, after 3-4 years of optimization, but we communicate with industry engineers to understand that the production of lithium batteries is very complex, there is still a lot of room for optimization, which can further improve production efficiency, improve yield and reduce production costs. According to the above preliminary analysis, the price of power lithium batteries has at least 20% room for decline.
Although the price of power lithium battery has more than 20% of the decline, but whether it can really decline, the key factor is the industry competition pattern.
Many people inside and outside the industry believe that CATL has formed a dominant position (market share ~50%), and the competitive pattern of the power lithium battery industry has been stabilized. Hydrogen cloud chain believes that there are still variables in the power lithium battery industry landscape, based on the following important points.
1、Japanese and Korean manufacturers have not yet been positively pK with China's power lithium battery companies.
2, there are new entrants in the power lithium battery industry, and there is still large-scale investment in small and medium-sized companies.
Japanese and Korean manufacturers in technology is not inferior to China's power lithium battery company, important by the subsidy bias restrictions, Japanese and Korean companies temporarily can not compete with our company, but after 2020 subsidies and other restrictions will be gradually removed, Japan and South Korea three strong (Samsung, LG, Panasonic) will join the competition.
From the recent layout of the three strong Japanese and Korean companies, we can see that they have already strengthened the investment in our market and will officially pK with our company in 2020. at the same time, the hydrogen cloud chain also sees smaller companies are still increasing their investment and competing for the market, such as the announcement of the 15 billion yuan expansion plan by FuNeng Technology in October 2018. Evergrande Group announced in a high profile to enter the field of new energy vehicles and establish a power lithium battery production base, with a total investment of 150 billion yuan.
Hydrogen cloud chain believes that the competitive pattern of power lithium battery has not yet been set, and the competition will further intensify in the future, and the price of power lithium battery will also drop.
Through the above analysis, it can be concluded that the price of power lithium battery has more than 20% down space, while the fierce competition will drive the price down inevitably.
As for the price reduction point, Hydrogen Cloud Chain believes that after the subsidy is completely cancelled next year, the price of power lithium battery will drop by about 10%, and then the price will gradually drop. The gross margin of new energy vehicle OEMs is currently at a low level, and if the terminal price must fall, the pressure of price decline will certainly be transmitted to the upstream of the industry chain - the power lithium battery.
Besides, hydrogen cloud chain also judges that the price of power lithium battery may be reduced to 7-8 cents/Wh in the next 3-5 years, which corresponds to about 70-80 thousand yuan for 100 degree battery pack. The acquisition cost of new energy vehicles will be slightly higher or equal than the same level of fuel cars, while the use cost of electric vehicles will be significantly lower than that of fuel cars, and the economy will be highlighted.
It is foreseeable that the economy of new energy vehicles will be further improved as the price of power lithium battery further decreases. With the improvement of battery energy density, safety and range, electric vehicles can fully compete with fuel cars.
