The installed capacity of energy storage deployed in the United States is expected to grow rapidly in the future, and by 2050, there will be 130GW to 680GW of energy storage systems capable of being integrated into the US grid.
This is one of the main predictions of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) "Future of Energy Storage Study". The study consists of seven parts, and the lab recently released the final report, titled "Key Lessons for the Next Decades."
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted what it described as "high-definition modeling of future development scenarios," calculating the value of daytime battery storage systems (defined as storage with a duration of less than 12 hours) systems) and potential demand for longer-duration energy storage solutions.
The lab's lead researcher, Nate Blair, noted that the overarching conclusion of the "Future of Energy Storage Study" is that even under a conservative reference case scenario, U.S. energy storage deployment is likely to increase rapidly, making it possible for the four main use cases to grow rapidly. Electric grids provide valuable tools.
He said, “Each stage of the study points to a potential wave of energy storage deployments on the horizon, with installed capacity in the U.S. set to increase at least more than fivefold by 2050. Overall, we found that energy storage systems provide significant Value, from easier grid operations to lower cost hot starts to significant carbon reductions.”
8 Key Lessons from "Energy Storage Future Research"
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has highlighted the many benefits that energy storage systems bring to the grid. From its complementarity with solar and wind power, to providing sufficient power when there is no sun or insufficient wind, to improving transmission infrastructure utilization, and providing peak capacity or a role in operating reserves, to distributed storage energy systems to protect the grid from supply stress during peak demand periods.
The study's conclusions contain the following eight key lessons:
(1) Energy storage deployment is expected to achieve rapid growth
Energy storage deployment will grow rapidly and significantly due to cost competitiveness. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has predicted in a series of scenario modeling that between now and 2050, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage systems in the United States will be between 100GW and 650GW. Even at the lower range, as Nate Blair said, this would be more than five times higher than the 23GW cumulatively deployed in 2020.
Energy storage systems with a duration of 4 to 6 hours will be the most common energy storage deployments, and energy storage systems will drive the decarbonization of the grid and the growth of renewable energy capacity.
(2) The cost of energy storage will continue to decline
One may be concerned that the trend in the cost of battery energy storage systems, which has been falling over the years, has been partly affected by the rising demand for lithium-ion batteries and the mismatch between manufacturing and upstream supply.
However, the research report pointed out that the continued growth of battery demand (especially for electric vehicles) will promote the development of battery technology and the decline of cost in the future.
Lithium-ion batteries continue to be the mainstream technology for battery energy storage systems, but other battery technologies may also improve and may have deployment opportunities if they can prove to be more price competitive with lithium-ion batteries.
(3) Energy storage systems can provide stable capacity and promote cost-competitive deployment
While energy storage can provide four primary sources of value to the grid, it is the ability to meet demand and replace gas turbines and other traditional generation facilities during power system peaks that is critical to realizing the full potential of energy storage.
(4) Energy storage systems are becoming a source of competition for grid flexibility
Historically, energy storage has been one of the most expensive ways to make the grid more flexible. However, while the cost of energy storage systems has fallen, the cost of other sources of flexibility has remained largely unchanged. Nonetheless, energy storage remains one of the flexibility options that can and should be deployed, including demand-side management of electricity usage.
(5) Energy storage system and solar power generation facilities complement each other
There is a highly synergistic relationship between daytime energy storage and solar power generation facilities. In most regions where peak demand occurs at noon and night each day, increased deployment of solar power generation can shorten the duration required for energy storage systems.
Conversely, as the installed capacity of deployed solar power generation facilities increases, so does the ability of diurnal energy storage to provide electricity during peak demand periods. The lack of a consistent generation pattern for wind power makes it less suitable for the deployment of energy storage systems. The study found that there is certainly strong complementarity between wind power and energy storage systems, but the relationship is more complex.
(6) As a backup power source, the deployment of distributed energy storage will increase
According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the deployment of distributed battery energy storage systems has huge investment potential in a variety of scenarios. By 2050, 85GW to 244GW of two-hour duration energy storage systems (170GWh to 490GWh) may be deployed, with customer return on investment and return on investment determining whether the floor or ceiling is reached.
(7) As deployment increases, so does the duration of the energy storage system
Currently, energy storage systems with a duration of 4 hours have been determined to be sufficient to meet peak summer demand in many parts of the United States. However, as energy storage deployments increase, the net peak load period extends to longer periods of time. In this case, a longer duration is required to provide a fixed capacity of similar value.
(8) To achieve 100% clean energy, seasonal energy storage technology is required
The main scenarios modeled show how to enable low carbon and high renewable energy grids, reaching 80% by 2050. However, to achieve the 100% decarbonization goal, it is not enough to deploy only renewable energy with daytime energy storage, seasonal energy storage systems such as hydrogen facilities (duration of days, even weeks or months can help to drive The grid becomes completely carbon-free, especially if it can be cost-competitive).
