Since 2020, the once-quiet lithium iron phosphate battery has begun to pick up and enter a new growth cycle.
In 1997, when American scientist Goodenough discovered and verified that lithium iron phosphate (LFP) with an olivine structure could be used as a positive electrode for lithium batteries, he might not have thought that such a technical route would one-day "bloom" in China on the other side of the ocean.
In 2009, China launched the Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles Project, planning to develop 10 cities every year within 3 years, and each city will launch 1,000 new energy vehicles. Thanks to safety and long-life considerations, new passenger cars were the main vehicle at the time. Most energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate batteries.
After that, the power lithium battery of the lithium iron phosphate technology route began to take root in China and continue to grow.
Bai Ke, Chief Engineer of Anchi Technology, recently gave a speech entitled "Lithium Iron Phosphate: Looking Back and Starting Again". As an industry witness, he looks back on the development of lithium iron phosphate in the past ten years, the current transition, and the future outlook.
Looking back at the domestic development of lithium iron phosphate batteries, in terms of installed capacity, from 0.2GWh in 2010 to 20.3GWh in 2016, it has achieved a 100-fold increase in 7 years. After 2016, it will stabilize at 20GWh per year.
In terms of market share, from 2010 to 2014, the market share of lithium iron phosphate has been maintained at more than 70%, but after 2016, affected by the adjustment of the subsidy policy and the linkage of energy density, lithium iron phosphate batteries began to be in the market In cold weather, the market share has gradually fallen from over 70% before 2014 to less than 15% in 2019.
During this period, lithium iron phosphate batteries have also received a lot of doubts, and once became synonymous with backwardness, and even a trend of discarding lithium iron phosphate has appeared. Behind this change also shows that before 2019, the market's dependence on policies is very high.
From the perspective of technical performance and cost indicators, it can reflect the development of lithium iron phosphate battery technology and industrial maturity to a certain extent. The energy density has increased by an average of 9% per year over the past 10 years, and the cost has fallen by 17% per year.
, and the cost will drop to 0.5 yuan/Wh.2020, a turning point for lithium iron phosphate batteries
Since 2020, the once-quiet lithium iron phosphate battery has begun to pick up and enter a new growth cycle.
The logic behind this mainly includes:
The first is the suspension of the route dispute in the field of new energy vehicle power batteries, and products with different technical routes have begun to find a suitable track; the second is the advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries in a certain scale of markets such as 5G base stations, ships, and construction machinery. Highlights and opens up new market opportunities; third, as the battery market becomes more and more market-oriented, the To C-end business holds up new growth points, which gives lithium iron phosphate batteries a new opportunity to be selected.
In terms of market applications, the most attention is paid to the three phenomenal models in the field of electric vehicles, Tesla Model 3, BYD Han, and Hongguang mini EV, all of which are equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries. The application on this brings a lot of room for imagination.
As the market begins to further get rid of the policy and move towards real marketization, opportunities for lithium iron phosphate batteries will also be further opened.
According to market data, the total installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate in vehicles in 2020 is expected to reach 20Gwh. In addition, the shipment of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the energy storage market is expected to be around 10Gwh.
Opportunities for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the new decade
After 2020, there is no doubt that lithium iron phosphate batteries will open up more space in more diversified market applications.
In the comprehensive electrification of the power system, the trend of comprehensive electrification of land transportation and vehicles is irreversible; the electrification of ships is also accelerating, and relevant standards have been improved. At the same time, the electric aircraft market has begun to try. This will have a part of the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
The field of energy storage will become the second battlefield for lithium iron phosphate batteries. Energy storage is mainly divided into large-scale energy storage combined with the power grid and small energy storage represented by 5G base stations. These will all play the leading role in lithium iron phosphate batteries. Application market.
In addition, in emerging application markets, including electric forklifts, electric mopeds, data center backup power, elevator backup power, medical equipment power supply, and other scenarios, all will bring certain opportunities and space for lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Diversified market and differentiated product development
The diversified market also puts forward differentiated requirements for lithium batteries. Some require long battery life, some require high energy density, and some require wide temperature performance. Even for lithium iron phosphate batteries, differentiated development is needed to meet the needs and pain points of different application scenarios.
Founded in May 2016, Anchi Technology has always adhered to the lithium iron phosphate technology route. In response to the future market demand, Baike introduced Anchi's technology research and development direction in the field of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In the direction of energy density improvement, the era of frantically pursuing energy density has passed, but as a carrier of energy, energy density is a technical indicator that it must face.
In this regard, Anchi has developed a structural gradient thick electrode, which eliminates the problems of excessive internal resistance of conventional thick electrodes and increased battery operating temperature by balancing the polarization of the pole pieces. It can make the iron-lithium battery take into account the longevity and high energy density. The weight energy density of iron-lithium batteries based on this technology exceeds 190Wh/Kg, and the volume energy density exceeds 430Wh/L.
In response to the application requirements of power batteries in low-temperature scenarios, Anchi also developed low-temperature lithium iron phosphate batteries, through the combination of low-viscosity super electrolyte, ion/electronic superconducting network, isotropic graphite, ultra-fine nano-lithium iron, and other technologies. Let the battery operate normally in a low-temperature environment.
In addition, in the development of long-life batteries, Anchi has achieved more than 6000 cycles of lithium iron phosphate batteries through technologies such as low lithium consumption negative electrodes, high stability positive electrodes, and self-repairing electrolytes.
