According to a new study by industry trade group CLEPA, the transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles could mean as many as 500,000 jobs will be cut at European Union auto parts suppliers by 2040. The corresponding job growth in electric vehicle parts will not fully offset the loss of internal combustion engine vehicles, with only 226,000 new jobs in electric vehicle parts, implying a net loss of 275,000 jobs. The countries with the biggest job losses were Germany (121,000), Italy (74,000), Spain (72,000) and Romania (56,000).
That could happen if only zero-emission vehicles are allowed to be sold in the EU after 2035. The EU aims to reduce emissions by 55 per cent from 2021 levels by 2030. CLEPA is calling for a variety of technologies to reduce vehicle emissions, including hybrid technology, green hydrogen technology and the use of renewable fuels. CLEPA points out that this approach could also reduce emissions by 50% while maintaining current employment levels.
European car parts suppliers employ 1.7m people, while carmakers employ about 1.2m, according to the PWC study for CLEPA. In addition, there were about 1.21 million jobs in tire, body building, chemicals, batteries and electrical equipment, and 3.2 million jobs in support services.
The study looked at three questions: What impact do different powertrain technologies have on the value a supplier can add? What is the corresponding effect on employment? What is the impact on climate targets?
Most of the "added value" in electric vehicles will come from batteries, from raw materials to cells to batteries to recycling. The battery industry is nascent in Europe, however, with many gigafactories planned but only a handful currently in operation.
The study found that as the electric vehicle industry grows, the number of jobs for internal combustion engine vehicle parts suppliers will decrease significantly, especially after 2030. There are currently 599,000 jobs in the internal combustion engine components sector in Europe, but that number is set to fall to 513,000 by 2030 and 153,000 by 2035.
The study set up three power system scenarios.
Hybrid technology: Hybrid technology will reduce co2 emissions from 95 g/km today to 20 g/km by 2040, adding 200,000 jobs.
Pure electric vehicle technology: Zero CO2 emissions by 2040, with a corresponding loss of 275,000 jobs.
A "radical" scenario would see carbon dioxide emissions fall to zero by 2030, but unemployment would exceed 360,000.
"Society's needs are too diverse to adopt a one-size-fits-all approach," de Vries said in a press release. A regulatory framework open to all available solutions, such as hybrid technology, green hydrogen and the use of renewable fuels, will enable innovation as we redefine mobility for decades to come."
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