The transition to new energy vehicles will have an important impact on energy conservation and emission reduction in the automotive industry. Take passenger vehicles for example, in 2021, the carbon emission per mile of pure electric vehicles is about 70 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer, while that of fuel vehicles is about 176 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer.
Ming-gao ouyang
Academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences, vice president of China Electric Car 100 People Association
More than 2.5 million new energy vehicles were sold in China from January to October, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
"Market growth this year exceeded expectations but was logical." On December 2, electric cars in China c media communication conference, member of Chinese Academy of Sciences, vice President of China's electric vehicle c Ming ouyang work highlights and new energy vehicle technology and market trend of medium and long term views, said in 2021, penetration of new energy car sales and rapidly increasing month by month, new energy automobile market into the new stage explosive growth. He predicted that about 3.3 million neVs could be sold in China this year.
In Ouyang Minggao's opinion, the reason for the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market is the result of technological progress, abundant products and powerful policies. In terms of technology, electric vehicle battery technology continues to improve and cost to reduce, and the structural design of battery system continues to innovate, such as large-scale application of blade battery, large-scale equipment of lithium iron phosphate battery in cars; In terms of products, after years of promotion, the brand image of electric vehicles has been improved, and a large number of new models have been introduced, which are more trendy than traditional cars. In terms of policies, it is the continuation of subsidies, double credit price increase, and the introduction of national double carbon strategy to guide manufacturers and young customers.
From January to October, global sales of generalized new-energy passenger vehicles reached 7.02 million units, with China's new-energy passenger vehicles accounting for 51 percent of the world's total. Judging from the experience of s-shaped growth curve, Ouyang minggao said that global vehicle electrification has broken through a critical point and entered a steep growth period. "It is estimated that China's neV sales will continue to grow to 5 million units next year, which is still a conservative estimate limited by battery supply, chip supply and production capacity." Ouyang minggao said.
Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Committee of 100, said that China's industrialization of new energy vehicles should experience three stages: policy-driven, policy-driven and market-driven. Among them, the second stage is low carbon, green stage, but also the stage of network and intelligent.
What contribution will the explosive growth of new energy vehicles make to carbon reduction? The Global carbon neutrality Roadmap released by the International Energy Agency in May sees an 18-fold increase in electric cars worldwide from 2020 to 2030, with annual sales reaching 55 million units in 2030.
According to Ouyang minggao, this is an aggressive forecast in line with low-carbon development goals. Relatively conservative foreign forecasts put global ev sales at 30m by 2030.
Based on the calculation analysis and comprehensive judgment of the research team, Ouyang Minggao made an overall forecast of China's ELECTRIC vehicle market: It is expected that in 2025, China's sales of new energy vehicles will be between 7 million and 9 million; The number is expected to reach 17 million to 19 million by 2030. In terms of population, it will be close to 100 million in 2030.
Obviously, the transition to new energy vehicles will have an important impact on energy conservation and emission reduction in the automotive industry. Using passenger cars as an example, Ouyang said that in 2021, the carbon emission per mile of pure electric vehicles will be about 70 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer, while that of fuel vehicles will be about 176 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer.
"Carbon emissions per mile traveled by pure electric vehicles are expected to drop to 20 grams per kilometer in 2035, a reduction of more than 70 percent compared to 2021." Ouyang minggao analysis, the main reason for the sharp decline is the change of energy structure, that is, the proportion of green electricity increased. As the proportion of green electricity increases, the carbon emissions of electric vehicles will be significantly reduced.
Talking about the evolution of the industrial pattern in the future, Ouyang Minggao believes that in 2023, Chinese and foreign brands of new energy vehicles will enter a period of intense competition.
"In terms of core technologies, domestic brands are strong." Batteries account for 60% of the technological content of electric vehicles, and China dominates the current generation of battery technology, Mr. Ouyang said. At present, Japan and other countries are vigorously developing the next generation of all-solid-state battery. Although There is still a gap between China and foreign countries in the development of this technology, it is estimated that it will take about 10 years for the industrialization of all-solid-state battery technology to have an important impact on the market pattern.
In terms of supply chain, China's power battery industry chain is complete, 70% of the world's battery production capacity is in China, and products are supplied to the world. Ouyang Minggao bluntly, from the perspective of finished vehicle brands, after the explosion of electric vehicles is a challenge to the old brand, is an opportunity to the new brand. "In the new wave of electrification and intelligence, China's own brands are full of confidence to occupy a dominant position in the future competition in the auto industry."
