In the previous, Tesla and Ningde Time in the negotiations, the primary target is the cobalt-free battery cells, through communication with industry friends can admit that Tesla will use lithium iron phosphate, and is Ningde Time's square lithium iron phosphate. At the same time, last week, following China Mobile's price limit of 2.5 billion yuan to collect communications goodwill lithium iron phosphate batteries, China Tower also announced that it will be a large plan to buy lithium iron phosphate battery pack, and does not limit the highest price bid. The purchase of multiple companies also makes clear the future of lithium iron phosphate battery down demand and the future of the mall space.
Now, the use of lithium iron batteries are not bound to the field of new energy cars, in the base station energy storage, industrial and commercial energy storage, large and small UPS, grid-side energy storage, user-side energy storage and other fields have the potential to use prospects. Center Zhengzhi orange and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also held meetings, the meeting clearly marked to accelerate the development of 5G construction, to promote the resumption of 5G resumption of production, the three major operators have also expressed their position to increase the construction of 5G base stations. The work is supplied with a boost to the development of the work.
In the communication mobile network, the base station is the primary component of the mobile communication network energy consumption, accounting for more than 80% of the entire network energy consumption. In the 4G era, the maximum power consumption of a single base station can be up to 1300W. As 5G uses a larger array of planned antennas and higher bandwidth, the base station will handle massive amounts of data and consume significantly more energy than the original 3G and 4G base stations. According to calculations, the power of a single fully loaded 5G base station is close to 3800W, 3.5 times that of 4G, and even under no-load conditions, the power reaches 2300W, 2.6 times that of 4G. Assuming that the energy consumption of other equipment (such as air conditioning systems) is taken into account, the energy consumption of a single 5G base station will exceed 5 KW. The planning of the backup power capacity is generally determined in accordance with the peak power consumption of the base station, and in order to meet the necessary hours of demand, the replacement of large-capacity backup power is inevitable. The typical value of standby power for a single 4G base station is about 11.2KWh, while 5G base stations will need to be expanded to 21.2KWh, almost doubling the capacity.
The year 2020 will be a year of accelerated construction of 5G base stations, according to the three major operators planning, it is estimated that in 2020 there will be 680,000 new 5G base stations, the demand for backup battery capacity up to 14.4 GWh. it is estimated that before 2025, the number of 5G macro base stations in China arrived at 7.6 million, after which the 5G network is dominated by micro base stations. Then the total demand for backup power for the whole 5G macro base stations is up to 161GWh, and the new battery demand in the next three years is 14.42GWh, 21.2GWh and 27.56GWh, with growth rates of 423%, 47% and 30% respectively.
Future 5G base station demand for batteries
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Since the development of mobile communication work, lead-acid batteries with very high cost performance and skill sophistication and stability, coupled with the lead-acid battery huge shopping malls and perfect back-end resource processing support, in the field of communication base stations is the first choice for backup power, occupying more than 90% of the base station backup power market. And following the continued decline in the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries, lead-acid battery backup power position is at stake.
From the price point of view, lithium iron phosphate battery is twice the lead-acid battery, but from the point of view of the use of capital, lithium iron battery in the field of base station energy storage full life cycle cost is now far beyond the lead-acid battery. The future lead-acid battery is replaced by the inevitable result of the work, following the 5G base station power consumption has increased significantly, the cost of electricity has increased significantly, the base station demand for peak frequency modulation is intense, the lower cycle life of lead-acid batteries and slower charging speed can not meet the needs of the 5G era, and lithium iron batteries in this regard for the 5G base station to bring great economy. We calculate that after the selection of lithium iron batteries, the uniform annual backup battery cost of 8100 yuan, 1700 yuan lower than the lead-acid battery / year, if the country's 5 million base stations all choose lithium iron batteries, it will save 8.5 billion yuan in backup power costs. And from the time axis, after the third year, the cumulative cost of lithium iron batteries can be lower than lead-acid batteries. As China Mobile first open lithium iron battery tender, the future Unicom Telecom is also expected to follow.
Lithium iron phosphate battery add logic in the power battery has now been verified, now in the 5G era of communication base station energy storage, lithium iron battery will play a greater effect. The future of lithium iron does not stay here, following the lithium battery cost continues to decline, lithium iron batteries are expected to be completely open in the field of energy storage supporting space, widely used in power generation side, transmission and distribution side and electricity side of various industries and fields. We believe that the current round of lithium iron battery industry chain recovery is the inevitable result of skill upgrading and cost reduction, other obstacles in front of the money are not enough. Assuming that the choice of lithium iron in the field of power is the result of cost-oriented, then in the field of energy storage, the choice of lithium iron is the inevitable upgrade of skills, and the power field ternary batteries on the mechanism of the constraints of lithium iron batteries as a withdrawal. Lithium iron price decline and functional improvement for its own industry chain turned up a huge growth space.
At the time of the work expected under the expectation of the future space of the lithium iron phosphate industry chain is huge, related companies can focus on.
1, Ningde Time (lithium iron phosphate batteries are certainly leading).
2, Xiangtan Electrochemical (the company is in the cathode material link, lithium iron cathode product quality is excellent, high compaction density).
3, De Fang Nano (Ningde Time lithium iron cathode largest supplier).
4, China Baoan (subsidiary Betray's lithium iron cathode capacity of 30,000 tons)
5, Fengyuan shares (with an annual capacity of 6,000 tons of cathode information, including lithium iron phosphate series capacity of 3,000 tons / year.)
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