In 2021, despite the continued delay of the epidemic, energy consumption will show a growth trend as the economy recovers. The transformation of global energy production and consumption is accelerating in the direction of diversification, low carbonization, and digitalization. At the same time, due to multiple factors such as the epidemic, the monetary policy changes of major economies, and especially the intensification of geopolitical conflicts, the future energy transformation has a long way to go.
In 2021, global primary energy consumption is estimated to be 13.84 billion tons of oil equivalent, an increase of 5.2% from 2020 and a 0.9% increase from 2019, before the pandemic. Fossil energy consumption showed a significant recovery trend, of which coal increased by 6%, oil increased by 6.1%, and natural gas increased by 4.6%. Non-fossil energy showed a steady growth trend, nuclear energy increased by 2%, hydropower increased by 2%, and non-fossil energy increased by 3.6%.
In 2021, in terms of energy structure, the proportion of various energy sources will be basically stable compared with 2020. The proportion of non-fossil energy consumption decreased slightly, down by 0.3%; the global oil demand rebounded steadily, and the proportion of oil increased by 0.2%; in the fourth quarter, the global power shortage, the low cost of coal power, the increase in power generation, the proportion of coal rebounded by 0.2%; The drastic price fluctuations affected the recovery of natural gas consumption, which accounted for a decrease of 0.2%. Under the influence of the epidemic, the process of global energy transition has moved forward tortuously. The absolute amount of nuclear energy consumption among non-fossil energy has increased, but its proportion has decreased by 0.2%, and the total amount has increased; the proportion of water energy has decreased by 0.2%; wind, light and other non-water energy The total share of renewable energy remains unchanged.
In the Asia-Pacific region, China's economy grew by 8.1%, and energy consumption increased significantly, driving the regional energy consumption to increase by 5.6%. North America has a large economy, and the economic recovery is better than expected, and energy consumption increased by 5.1%; the Middle East increased by 3.3%, Africa increased by 4.6%, and Central and South America increased by 3.3%. These three regions have a small economic base and limited growth in energy consumption. ; Europe and Eurasia rose by 5.7%, due to the energy crisis starting in the second half of 2021, and the restart of coal-fired power plants in Europe, energy consumption increased more than Asia Pacific and North America.
In 2021, only the non-fossil energy share in the Asia-Pacific region will increase compared to 2020, and all other regions will decline. In 2021, the abnormal weather in Europe and the extreme drought in the United States will cause wind power and hydropower to plummet. Coal and natural gas consumption in Europe and the United States will rebound. At the same time, coal consumption in China and India will also rebound. At the same time, global renewable energy generation achieved the largest growth in history, especially in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, the installed capacity of renewable energy generation is growing rapidly, and the energy transition is advancing in twists and turns.
In 2021, global power generation is estimated to be 28.32 trillion kWh, an increase of 5.6% from 2020 and more than the pre-pandemic 2019.
Structurally, extreme weather and soaring gas prices spurred a recovery in global power generation in 2021, with the largest growth in renewable energy generation on record. At the same time, due to the record high gas price in 2021, the consumption of coal power will increase significantly, an increase of 9% over 2020, an increase of 2% for oil power and 0.2% for gas power. Global nuclear power generation has rebounded, especially with the rise of emerging markets, and global nuclear power generation in 2021 will increase by 2% compared to 2020. Renewable energy generation increased by 8%, but it still cannot meet the growing demand for clean energy.
In 2021, it is estimated that the global fossil energy power generation will be 17.48 trillion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 6% compared with 2020, and the proportion of power generation will be 61.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared with 2018. Non-fossil energy power generation was 10.8 trillion kWh, with a growth rate of 4.9%, and power generation accounted for 38.4%. Although non-fossil energy maintained growth, the growth rate narrowed, and its growth was mainly due to investment before the epidemic. In 2021, global energy-related carbon emissions will increase by 6%, and the process of cleaning the power system will be difficult.
The Asia-Pacific region is a region with significant growth in electricity consumption. Thanks to the recovering economic growth in China and India, the proportion of electricity consumption in the Asia-Pacific region will increase from 48.2% in 2020 to 49.5% in 2021. In 2021, China's electricity demand will increase by 10%, faster than the economic growth of 8.4%.
The proportion of electricity consumption in North America, Europe and Eurasia decreased by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively, the proportion of electricity consumption in Central and South America decreased by 0.1%, and the proportion of electricity consumption in the Middle East and Africa was basically the same.
In 2021, the world will add nearly 290GW of new renewable energy projects, an increase of 3% compared to 2020. Photovoltaic power generation capacity accounted for more than half of the newly installed renewable energy power generation capacity, followed by wind power and hydropower. In 2021, it is estimated that the global installed capacity of non-hydro renewable energy power generation will reach 154.3GW, with a growth rate of 16%, 3.4 percentage points lower than that in 2020. Among them, wind power increased by 17% to 8.4GW; photovoltaic increased by 20% to 6.9GW. At present, the unit installed cost of wind power has entered a period of steady decline, and it is mostly used in centralized wind farms as large-scale wind turbines. With the promotion of distributed energy systems, photovoltaics (especially small distributed photovoltaics) will become non-water renewable energy sources in the future. direction of development.
Looking forward to 2022, the global economic growth and energy supply and demand pattern will be affected. The epidemic and global supply chain shortages will have an impact on inflation. Energy and commodity prices may further increase, directly driving downstream commodity costs to surge, and economic losses will be more serious. At the same time, the energy supply and demand pattern may be restructured, the European oil and gas consumption may be further compressed, and the global oil and gas demand will further "shift eastward".
The EU's energy policies and plans for the next few years may change. The EU's short-term focus is on shifting from decarbonization to energy security, possibly relying more on coal, nuclear and natural gas for power generation, and allowing for more carbon emissions in general. In the long run, the EU will also accelerate energy transformation, improve electrification, accelerate the development of new energy to replace fossil energy, and improve energy efficiency, thereby reducing dependence on natural gas.
