The UK government's newly announced Energy Security Strategy (ESS) clarifies some of the power generation technologies that may be promoted in the future. The document, published on 7 April 2022, sets out short-term targets to tackle high energy costs, the medium-term target of decoupling UK energy use from fossil fuels, and the long-term target of net-zero emissions by 2050. The 24GW target of installed nuclear power capacity could partly answer the question of how the UK will achieve deep decarbonisation. However, the key question remains how the UK will deliver on these commitments.
ESS elevates the UK government's emphasis on offshore wind. This means that the number of new projects announced in the coming years will increase. Offshore wind could start dominating the UK electricity generation market as early as 2023, supplying half of the country’s electricity generation by 2030. The technology's dominance will continue until at least 2050.
By introducing a 2050 nuclear power capacity target, ESS provides a glimpse into how the UK will deeply decarbonise the electricity sector. A Bloomberg New Energy Finance analysis found that the 24GW target is not enough, and the UK will need an additional 44GW of deeply decarbonised capacity by 2050. However, these nuclear plants could reduce our 2050 emissions forecast by 41%.
ESS has stepped up its emphasis on photovoltaics, in line with Bloomberg New Energy Finance's expectations that the technology could play a role in decarbonising the UK. In fact, our analysis shows the potential of this technology is even higher than current government targets.
The UK government indirectly acknowledges through ESS that although onshore wind is the most economical renewable energy technology, the political costs of deploying onshore wind in England and Wales are higher than cost-effective. The ESS will boost UK onshore wind capacity to 28GW by 2030 and remain relatively stable thereafter.
ESS plans to cut planning approval times for offshore wind to one year from the current five years, which will face difficulties. The current approval process for offshore wind requires up to a year of on-site data – especially when it comes to environmental impacts, which raises questions about how projects will be approved within the desired time frame.
Reaching the 24GW nuclear power target by 2050 is challenging. The UK has 6GW of installed nuclear capacity in operation, but most will be shut down by 2030 due to lifecycle-related issues. Based on this, the UK ensures that only 1.2GW of the existing Sizewell B power plant and 3.2GW of the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant project still in operation after 2035 are still in operation. In addition, the Sizewell C project with an installed capacity of 3.2GW has been in the late preparation stage, and the British government may restart the 10.7GW project in the development stage. In either case, the UK needs to incentivise the development of new projects; at the same time, the country's nuclear power strategy will take time to pay off. How these projects will be funded also remains to be seen.
The goal of developing 1 GW of electrolyzers by 2025 and 5 GW of installed capacity by 2030 goes further than previous targets. The government's plan to increase renewable capacity on the UK grid will benefit electrolysers, which will run at 40% utilisation by 2030 and rely solely on curtailment of wind and solar power, which should significantly reduce their product - hydrogen - - production costs.
50GW
New target for UK installed offshore wind capacity by 2030
70GW
New target for UK installed PV capacity by 2035
24GW
New target for UK installed nuclear capacity by 2050
