A detailed analysis of the production, sales and installed capacity of major car companies in the entire power battery industry (including CATL, BYD, LG New Energy, MANLY BATTERY, etc.) in 2021, the annual summary and the important layout in the future. This report will continue to carry out a comprehensive review of the annual output and installed capacity of the two power batteries, the ternary battery and the lithium iron phosphate battery (Lifepo4 battery), as well as the comprehensive comparison between the two.
1. The ternary will not be replaced by iron and lithium, and the cost disadvantage is weakening
In 2021, the entire ternary lithium battery market has indeed been impacted by lithium iron phosphate batteries. After three years of ternary lithium batteries having a significant market share advantage over lithium iron phosphate batteries (Lifepo4 battery), lithium iron phosphate batteries (Lifepo4 battery) achieved a counterattack in 2021, and the ternary lithium battery was overtaken by the lithium iron phosphate battery in three aspects: output, sales, and installed capacity throughout the year:
1) Output: The annual output of ternary lithium battery was 93.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 93.6%, accounting for 42.7% of the total output, which was inferior to the 125.4GWh output of lithium iron phosphate (Lifepo4 battery), a year-on-year increase of 262.9%, accounting for 57.1% %.
2) Sales volume: The annual sales volume of ternary lithium batteries was 79.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 128.9%, accounting for 42.8% of the total sales volume, which was inferior to the 106GWh sales volume of lithium iron phosphate (Lifepo4 battery), a year-on-year increase of 245%, accounting for 57.2% .
3) Installed capacity: The annual installed capacity of ternary lithium battery was 74.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 91.3%, accounting for 48.1% of the total installed capacity, which was inferior to the installed capacity of Lifepo4 battery of 79.8GWh, a year-on-year increase of 227.4%. The proportion reached 57.1%
Although the lithium iron phosphate battery will perform well in 2021, the ternary lithium battery and the lithium iron phosphate battery will maintain a long-term coexistence state in the future. There is no complete rolling and substitution relationship, and there are only periodic ups and downs. In the past 12 years from 2009 to 2021, the shares of the three stages of ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery (Lifepo4 battery) surpassed each other.
In addition, ternary low-nickel batteries such as 3-series and 5-series batteries are only slightly higher than lithium iron phosphate due to their energy density and other properties, but their management costs such as thermal runaway are similar to those of the 8-series. Considering the price/performance ratio, it is easy to be seized by lithium iron phosphate batteries. However, the high-nickel, ultra-high nickel and cobalt-free ternary batteries, which gradually occupy the ternary share, still have obvious competitive advantages in the high-end market, and their high-quality performance is unmatched and replaced by lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Although the number of car companies interested in lithium iron phosphate batteries is gradually increasing, the proportion of high-end brands using them is still low. In 2021, the terminal supporting car companies are still mainly concentrated in BYD, SAIC-GM-Wuling and Tesla. Pull, the three accounted for nearly 80%. Even Tesla, which first proposed the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2021, will only use lithium iron phosphate batteries on standard models around the world, while other high-performance models such as high-endurance models and high-end models such as Model X and Model S will still use ternary lithium batteries with high nickel and low cobalt, especially their 4680 large cylindrical batteries will be officially used in 2022.
It is worth noting that for the whole year of 2021, in terms of material prices of lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries, although the absolute price of ternary materials is still higher than that of lithium iron phosphate, the price increase of lithium iron phosphate is higher than that of lithium iron phosphate. It has far exceeded the ternary material, which will weaken the cost disadvantage of ternary relative to iron and lithium. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) rose from 40,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2021 to 111,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, an increase of 177.5%, and the price rose again to 126,000 yuan/ton as of January 14; and The prices of the three most commonly used ternary materials, type 523, type 622 and type 811, have risen from 123,500 yuan/ton, 145,500 yuan/ton and 170,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 248,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, respectively. 266,000 yuan / ton and 276,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 100%, 83% and 62% respectively.
2. In 2022, the international market will face the full import of iron and lithium
In 2021, the output of lithium iron phosphate and the installed capacity of batteries will rise sharply. The main reason is that the price of upstream raw materials for lithium batteries such as the four major materials and copper foils mentioned above will rise sharply, which makes lithium iron phosphate at a lower cost. Batteries have obvious cost-effective advantages, and it also lies in the changes in the preferences of terminal car companies for the power batteries they use, especially the changes in the power battery matching of popular passenger cars.
Previously, due to the preference of the subsidy policy for battery energy density and vehicle cruising range, lithium iron phosphate batteries were mainly used in commercial vehicles. In 2021, the sales volume of commercial vehicles in the whole year was 186,000, a year-on-year increase of only 46.6%. The sales volume of 3.521 million vehicles is far behind the growth rate of 1.1 times, while the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate for commercial vehicles is around 10GWh, a year-on-year increase of only single digits, which can be said to be basically the same as the installed capacity in 2020; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate for vehicles has exceeded 30GWh, a year-on-year increase of more than 900%, accounting for more than 75% of the total installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power batteries, which is the main reason for the large increase in the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2021.
This is reflected in the choices of major domestic and foreign mainstream car companies in 2021. Domestic car companies such as BYD, Xiaopeng, Geely, SAIC, and international car companies such as Volkswagen, Tesla, Daimler, Ford, and Hyundai have all indicated that they will introduce lithium iron phosphate batteries, among which representative foreign car companies For example, the iron-lithium version of the Model 3 and Model Y currently sold in my country accounts for nearly 80% of the sales. At the same time, the standard battery life versions of the Model 3 and Model Y in other markets around the world have also begun to use lithium iron phosphate batteries. The domestic car company BYD is also a leader in lithium iron phosphate batteries. The proportion of its models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries has suddenly increased from 5.5:4.5 in 2020 to 9.4:0.6 in 2021.
The collective preferences of major terminal car companies have also caused battery manufacturers to change their direction. LG New Energy and SK Innovation, which previously focused on ternary lithium batteries, also announced their entry into lithium iron phosphate in 2021. Overall, the installed capacity of power batteries Except for Panasonic, the top ten battery manufacturers have begun to deploy lithium iron phosphate batteries. Obviously, the substantial growth in the installed capacity and output of lithium iron phosphate batteries in mid-2021 is highly related to the change in power battery preferences of domestic and foreign car companies, and the layout of power battery manufacturers.
Of course, the trend of accelerating the proportion of lithium iron phosphate in 2021 is mainly concentrated in the Chinese market. The overseas demand for lithium iron phosphate is not as high as that in my country, and it is still dominated by ternary lithium batteries, but this trend is expected to increase in 2022 ushered in changes. If it is said that in 2021, the output and installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries will overtake ternary lithium batteries in the domestic power battery market, then in the new year 2022, lithium iron phosphate batteries will continue to maintain their advantages in the domestic power battery market. The international power battery market where ternary lithium batteries have always maintained a dominant position (overseas whether it is in the field of energy storage or new energy vehicles, ternary lithium batteries account for more than two-thirds) may also face a rapid increase in market share. Exclude the possibility of overtaking ternary lithium batteries for the first time.
3. In 2022, the prospect of ternary and iron-lithium
In 2021, the lithium iron phosphate industry chain will be in high prosperity almost throughout the year, but among them, the main players of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials are still professional players such as German Nano, Hunan Yuneng, Hubei Wanrun, etc., lithium iron phosphate throughout the year The total output was 410,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 179%, and the growth rate was almost the same as the sales of new energy vehicles (cumulative retail sales of 2.989 million units, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%). Fewer new players entered the game and a large-scale capacity expansion was carried out.
Although these phosphorus chemical projects are gradually becoming stricter due to the current approvals such as energy evaluation and safety evaluation, and the new production capacity also has problems such as ramping up production capacity, the planned production capacity may not be released quickly, but in the long run, the supply of lithium iron phosphate is in excess. possible. This will have a certain impact on the lithium iron phosphate industry. Once the demand for the lithium iron phosphate battery market by terminal car companies weakens, it may cause the overall overcapacity, especially the product homogeneity of the newly added players. Advantages, it is easy to cause vicious competition at low prices.
As for the ternary lithium battery, although it will be overtaken by the lithium iron phosphate battery in 2021, and there is a lot of distance in terms of growth rate, but in 2022, the launch of the 4680 battery and the process of high nickel and cobalt-free will be expected to give The ternary lithium battery brings a substantial increase in opportunities and volume, and comprehensively increases the proportion of high-nickel ternary lithium batteries in the entire ternary lithium battery.
In 2021, my country's output of ternary high-nickel materials, including NCA and NCM 811, will reach about 140,000 tons, an increase of over 260% year-on-year. Yuan lithium battery and 4680 battery suitable for high nickel ternary will be launched in 2022, and the demand side, the high-end models and high-end brands of terminal car companies will continue to increase the demand for high nickel ternary, high nickel ternary lithium battery It is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth, further occupy the share of medium and low nickel ternary, and realize the reversal of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
