More and more pure electric vehicles with lithium iron phosphate batteries are beginning to be introduced to the market. On March 3, the new car company Xiaopeng Motors launched the rear-drive standard endurance version of the Xiaopeng P7. The new car has two models, the Zhixiang version and the Zhizun version. The price starts at 229,900 yuan, compared with the ternary lithium version of the same configuration. It is 20,000 yuan lower; Xiaopeng G3 has a new 460c configuration model, starting at 149,800 yuan. Different from the current P7 and G3, which are equipped with ternary lithium batteries, these two new cars use lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the estimated delivery time is May this year.
More cars equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries are on the way. Even more surprising is that Tesla CEO Musk recently announced on social platforms that he will switch to lithium iron phosphate batteries in more models. As early as October last year, Tesla launched the Model 3 standard battery life model equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries in the Chinese market, lowering the price to 249,900 yuan. This move will be used for reference by overseas markets.
The new car company ZeroRun also added an entry-level T03 model equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries in February. “Currently, the entry-level lightweight version is in use, and it is still uncertain whether it will be installed on more models.” ZeroRun Auto Insiders told the Economic Observer reporter. Many car companies have begun to favor lithium iron phosphate batteries again, which is changing the battery landscape, which has also prompted the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries to start to rise.
The growth rate exceeds that of ternary lithium batteries
According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China from January to December 2020 will reach 63.6GWh, a cumulative increase of 2.3%. Among them, the total installed volume of ternary lithium batteries reached 38.9GWh, accounting for 61.1% of the total installed vehicles, a cumulative decrease of 4.1%; the cumulative installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 24.4GWh, accounting for 38.3% of the total installed vehicles, a cumulative increase of 20.6%, yes The main product that drives the overall increase in vehicle loading.
This is very different from the situation in 2019. In 2019, the total installed volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.2GWh, which only accounted for 32.5% of the total installed volume. The installed volume decreased by 9.0% year-on-year. An increase of 22.5%. In January of this year, lithium iron phosphate batteries continued to lead the ternary lithium batteries in terms of the year-on-year growth rate of installed vehicles. Data show that in January 2021, my country's power battery installed capacity totaled 8.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 273.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 33.1%. Among them, ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries have installed 5.4GWh and 3.3GWh, respectively, up 241.9% and 349.8% year-on-year.
"The demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries will indeed increase this year, and the proportion will increase slightly. The reason is that the demand for lithium iron phosphate versions of passenger cars and passenger cars is picking up." Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles The reporter said. However, he also mentioned that the overall recovery of lithium iron phosphate batteries should not be too large. Like Tesla’s Model Y, which may become an explosive model this year, it is still equipped with ternary lithium batteries, Xiaopeng P7, and G3 iron phosphate. Lithium battery version models, relatively speaking, will not be the main models.
It is understood that the power batteries used in pure electric vehicles are mainly ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. These two types of batteries account for more than 90% of the total installed power batteries. At present, the more widely used ternary lithium battery has the advantages of high energy density and high charging and discharging efficiency, but the price is higher. The lithium iron phosphate battery has low energy density, low charge and discharge efficiency, and more serious attenuation in winter, but the structure is stable, the charge and discharge cycle life is longer, and the production cost is low.
From the perspective of the development history of pure electric vehicles, early electric vehicles used mostly lithium iron phosphate batteries, and ternary lithium batteries accounted for less than 30% in 2015. In the following years, as subsidies shifted to high endurance, ternary lithium batteries developed rapidly due to their advantages such as high energy density. In 2018, the proportion of ternary lithium batteries installed in vehicles exceeded that of lithium iron phosphate batteries for the first time and reached a peak of 65% in 2019. Since 2020, the proportion of ternary lithium batteries has begun to fall.
The rise of ternary lithium batteries is the result of the combined effect of policies and markets. But beginning last year, some mid-to-high-end models also began to carry lithium iron phosphate batteries. BYD's mid-to-high-end model BYD Han EV launched in July last year is equipped with a blade battery that is a lithium iron phosphate battery. In addition, at the beginning of this year, it was reported that Weilai Automobile will launch a lithium iron phosphate battery model. Weilai did not directly deny this, and Weilai’s current products have a starting price of more than 350,000 yuan.
Raw material prices are rising fiercely
In 2020, many models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries have become popular models, and it seems that they have not been "disliked" by consumers because of their choice of lithium iron phosphate batteries. For example, after the Tesla Model 3 is equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, the price of this model drops to 250,000 yuan. In the second half of last year, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV went on the market. This mini-electric vehicle equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries was sold well, with monthly sales exceeding 20,000 units. Of course, this is also one of the main reasons for the increase in the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries installed in 2020.
After replacing the Model 3 with lithium iron phosphate batteries in the Chinese market, Tesla is also planning to expand the application range of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Musk explained the decision on social media: "The supply of nickel raw materials is our biggest concern in the mass production of batteries, which is why we plan to equip the standard battery version of electric vehicles with iron-lithium batteries. Iron ( And lithium) there are many!” It is understood that the ternary lithium battery refers to the lithium battery using lithium nickel cobalt manganese or lithium nickel cobalt aluminate as the positive electrode material, and the lithium iron phosphate battery is a lithium-ion battery using lithium iron phosphate as the positive electrode material. The raw materials required by the two are very different.
The prices of nickel and cobalt are increasing recently. According to data from the London Metal Exchange, from February 6 to early March, the price of nickel rose from US$17,535 per ton to US$19,689, a monthly increase of 12.28%. According to data from foreign media BusinessInsider, the price of nickel has risen by as much as 67.44% in the past year. The price of cobalt has increased even more. According to data from the London Metal Exchange, the price of cobalt has risen from US$42,975 to US$52,795 in the past month, an increase of 22.85%. "The main reason for the use of lithium iron phosphate is that, from the current point of view, the price of lithium iron phosphate can be relatively low by about 20%. In the long run, people do not want the growth of ternary lithium batteries to reduce the price of nickel. The demand is too high, and the early stage was worried that the supply of cobalt would be insufficient. Therefore, a compatible product is used, that is, lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium are developed in a balanced manner. In this way, the pressure on resources is relatively small. "Cui Dongshu said.
Next, whether the lithium iron phosphate battery will threaten the main position of the ternary lithium battery, Cui Dongshu said: "Whether the status of the ternary lithium will be threatened depends mainly on whether the supply of raw materials for the ternary lithium battery is sufficient, especially the battery Whether the content of cobalt in the medium can be reduced, and whether the supply and price of nickel can remain stable. This is actually a long-term strategic resource consideration."
Compromise of car companies
The most direct impact of using lithium iron phosphate batteries is the reduction in vehicle costs, which in turn will bring down the price of vehicles. According to the survey data released by Bloomberg in December last year, the price of ternary lithium batteries in the global market has dropped to an average of US$102/kWh, while the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries is US$80/kWh. Take the ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate models with the same battery capacity of 50kWh as an example, the price difference of the battery alone can reach $1,000.
The two P7 models released by Xiaopeng this time have been reduced by 20,000 yuan compared with the price of the ternary lithium battery version, but the battery life has also declined. The newly released P7 is equipped with a lithium iron phosphate battery with a battery capacity of 60.2kWh and an NEDC range of 480 kilometers; the previous long-range rear-drive version is equipped with a 70.8kWh ternary lithium battery, and the NEDC has a range of 586km. Except for the difference in battery capacity, the lithium iron phosphate version of P7 is consistent with the corresponding ternary lithium models in the configuration.
The lithium iron phosphate Xiaopeng G3460c model priced at 149,800 yuan, except for the replacement of lithium iron phosphate batteries and low wind resistance wheels, has the same price, cruising range, and other configurations. "Xiaopeng recently launched a lithium iron phosphate version of the model, which lowers the price threshold, which is conducive to expanding its consumer user base, thereby increasing its sales." Zhang Xiang, an automotive analyst, said that the pricing is very similar to the Tesla Model3. The Xpeng P7 with overlapping space, this model adjustment will help it open up the market.
In addition to cost advantages, lithium iron phosphate batteries also have the advantages of high safety and long service life. An engineer from a domestic new energy automobile manufacturer told reporters that due to the structure of the battery material itself, the lithium iron phosphate battery is more affected by temperature, and its material activity and conductivity will drop significantly in the low-temperature environment in winter. . Although with the advancement of technology, the performance of lithium iron phosphate in the low-temperature environment has been greatly improved, but there is still a gap with the ternary lithium battery.
He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, also faced this issue very candidly. On the social platform where Xiaopeng released new car information, he said in his comments: "A small reminder, iron-lithium batteries are more suitable for warm climates."
