Lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4 battery) and ternary lithium battery are in the "fighting battle", "a combination of a variety of technical advantages", as an important upgrade route for lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4 battery) lithium iron manganese phosphate (lifepo4 battery) "Horizontal knife immediately", the technological breakthrough and industrialization process continue to accelerate, is expected to reshape the industry pattern. Soochow Securities predicts that this new technology product is expected to be mass-produced in the first half of 2023.
At present, whether it is a battery company such as Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan High-tech, Manly battery, or German Nano, Dangsheng Technology, Pengxin Resources (Litai Lithium Energy), Hezong Technology, Baichuan Co., Ltd., Zhongbei New Materials, Tianjin Stellan and other material companies are actively deploying lithium manganese iron phosphate technology. According to industry statistics, the number of patents related to lithium iron manganese phosphate (lifepo4 battery) has risen rapidly in recent years, with 172 patents as of March 2022.
Among them, CATL applied for a patent for the preparation method of lithium iron manganese phosphate (lifepo4 battery) as early as 2015. In December 2021, CATL acquired a 15.57% stake in Litai Lithium Energy, a lithium iron manganese phosphate material company, with an investment of 413 million yuan. It is reported that Litai Lithium Energy currently has an annual production line of 2,000 tons of lithium iron manganese phosphate, and plans to build a new production line with an annual output of 3,000 tons of lithium iron manganese phosphate in the near future.
BYD has also applied for patents related to lithium iron manganese phosphate (lifepo4 battery) many years ago. Previously, BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu said that the energy density of BYD's new generation of lithium iron manganese phosphate batteries has reached the density of ternary materials. , and is more economical than ternary materials from a cost perspective. The "FP1865140-15Ah square lithium iron manganese phosphate lithium-ion battery" independently developed by Guoxuan Hi-Tech also won the honor of new product in Anhui Province.
Judging from the current progress of related material companies, Defang Nano said that the company's new lithium iron manganese phosphate has begun to send samples, and it is expected to be industrialized in 1-2 years. With the addition of positive lithium supplementation technology, the energy density of the battery can be increased by 20%. %, the cycle life can reach 10,000 times, the production capacity by the end of this year is 120,000 tons, and the production capacity next year is 180,000-200,000 tons.
It is understood that Defang Nano announced in September 2021 that it plans to build a “100,000-ton-per-year new phosphate-based cathode material production base project” in Qujing, Yunnan, with a total investment of not less than 2 billion yuan. In January 2022, it plans to expand the production of 330,000 tons of new phosphate-based cathode materials again. According to industry analysis, the new phosphate-based material is lithium manganese iron phosphate.
As a leading domestic lithium battery cathode material enterprise, Dangsheng Technology disclosed in its semi-annual report in August last year that the company is developing high-performance lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron manganese phosphate materials specially for electric vehicles and high-end energy storage markets. Recently, Hezong Technology stated on the interactive platform that the company carried out the research and development of lithium iron manganese phosphate precursor products last year, and has completed the pilot test of various types of lithium iron manganese phosphate precursor products, and has begun to send samples to downstream new energy enterprises for testing.
Technically speaking, lithium iron manganese phosphate is the addition of manganese element on the basis of lithium iron phosphate, which belongs to the "gene" mutation of lithium iron phosphate. It can take into account the dual advantages of lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganese phosphate, and its energy density is higher than that of iron phosphate. Lithium is 15-20% higher; the price and cost are almost the same as lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4 battery); the safety performance is close to that of lithium iron phosphate, and it can pass many safety tests such as nailing and impact; The composite material can not only make up for the safety problem of the ternary material, but also improve the energy density of the composite material.
Compared with ternary and lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron manganese phosphate has high voltage, high safety and good low temperature performance. In addition to being used alone, lithium iron manganese phosphate doped products will develop rapidly in the future. At present, the industry is in the first stage of "staking the field". Cathode companies that bind high-quality customers and lead mass production patent processes are expected to build competitive barriers.
"At present, the market that lithium iron manganese phosphate has entered is the market of small power two-wheeled vehicles and tricycles. It is mainly used for ternary composites to improve the safety performance of ternary and reduce the cost of ternary. Later, lithium iron manganese phosphate will enter the market. The power battery market is used in electric vehicles. Then, lithium iron manganese phosphate will be used in small energy storage, as a small power source to replace part of lead-acid; finally, lithium supplementation technology through positive electrode is expected to be applied in large energy storage." people pointed out.
It is not difficult to imagine that the future market space for lithium iron manganese phosphate is broad. CICC predicts that the global demand for lithium iron manganese phosphate materials is expected to usher in 300,000 tons in 2025, and a market space of 18.2 billion yuan. Lithium iron manganese phosphate is a potential substitute material for lithium iron phosphate and ternary 5 series. In the field of electric vehicles, it is expected that the replacement demand for lithium iron phosphate for lithium iron phosphate will reach 56GWh in 2025, and the demand for ternary compound matching will reach 28GWh. The overall demand is about is 84GWh.
It is worth noting that the increase in demand for lithium iron manganese phosphate will drive the demand for battery-grade manganese sources. According to industry estimates, 0.39kg of iron source and 0.25kg of manganese source are required per KWh of LMFP-46 cathode. CITIC Securities predicts that the amount of manganese used in lithium battery cathode materials will exceed 300,000 tons in 2025, and the compound growth rate will reach 32% in 2021-2025; it is expected to exceed 1.3 million tons in 2035.
From the perspective of industry insiders, with the completion of a new round of production expansion by major lithium battery upstream manufacturers in the future, after the supply and demand relationship is resolved, the market competition will transition from capacity competition to cost and quality competition, and new battery technologies such as lithium manganese iron phosphate will be available. Enterprises related to reserve and battery-grade manganese resources may have more advantages in future industrial competition.
