At the beginning of 2022, the new energy vehicle battery swap market will usher in a major player. The power battery giant CATL entered the battery swap field, released the battery swap brand EVOGO, and released a combined battery swap solution for all car companies, and the solution is suitable for 80% of the pure electric models that have been launched and will be launched in the next three years. For a time, netizens sighed that the "wolf" in the power exchange market came.
The battery swap solution is suitable for most pure electric vehicles
At the press conference held on January 18, CATL focused on the overall solution for combined power exchange. The solution consists of three products: "exchange block, quick exchange station, and APP", among which the power exchange block is called It has three characteristics of small and high-energy, free combination and minimalist design for the chocolate bar. Different from Weilai's battery swap, the chocolate battery can be freely combined and swapped on demand because of its small size.
In addition, the chocolate battery adopts the latest CTP technology of CATL. The weight energy density of the power exchange block exceeds 160Wh/kg, and the volumetric energy density exceeds 325Wh/L. A single battery can provide a battery life of about 200 kilometers, which is specially developed for the realization of shared power exchange. It can adapt to 80% of the models developed on the pure electric platform that have already been launched in the world and will be launched in the next three years.
The quick change station has the characteristics of small footprint, large capacity and full climate. Each standard station only needs three parking spaces, and it takes about 1 minute to replace a single power block, and 48 power blocks can be stored in the station. At the same time, the power exchange station can also provide versions adapted to the climatic and environmental conditions of different regions. APP acts as a link between different modules and consumers, providing interconnection and services for people, vehicles, stations, and electricity blocks.
Based on the above-mentioned overall solution for combined battery replacement, the EVOGO brand has three characteristics: one battery and multiple vehicles, renting electricity on demand, and being rechargeable and replaceable. Chen Weifeng, general manager of Times Electric Service, said that the chocolate power exchange block can be applied to passenger cars and logistics vehicles ranging from A00 to B and C levels, as well as various brand models that use the "chocolate power exchange block". Compatibility barriers with models.
In addition, consumers can freely choose the number of leased power exchange blocks according to their own usage scenarios and habits, that is, "rental electricity on demand". At the same time, the EVOGO combined battery swap solution is rechargeable and replaceable, and together with the existing home charger and fast charger, it will form a full-scene energy replenishment method.
From the above point of view, the battery replacement solution of CATL is significantly different from the layout of existing battery replacement companies in terms of battery design, operation efficiency of battery replacement stations, and coverage of the market.
In 2021, my country's new energy vehicles will enter an explosive growth stage, with annual sales reaching 3.52 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. At the same time, the annual installed capacity of power batteries jumped to 154GWh, a year-on-year increase of 142%. Among them, the annual installed capacity of CATL reached 80GWh, accounting for about 52% of the market share, and it is far ahead of power battery companies.
According to industry forecasts, the sales of new energy vehicles will continue to grow to 5 million this year, which means that the installed capacity of power batteries will continue to grow, and the nourishing days of the Ningde era are far from over. So why did the Ningde era arrange for power exchange at this time?
In fact, Chen Xuefeng has already stated the main reasons at the press conference. He said that although the demand for new energy vehicles has exploded and the demand for power batteries has also surged, the prices of raw materials have risen sharply. In contrast, economies of scale and The cost reduction brought about by technological progress is only a drop in the bucket, and the cost curve is turning upward. In this case, CATL is also reflecting on whether the battery only has a technical route of high power and customization? The answer of the Ningde era is obviously "no".
Some people believe that CATL, as a global power battery giant, has predicted that the future economic cost and technological progress of power batteries are very limited, so it is also brewing new growth points, and the layout of power replacement is the new development of CATL. business.
In addition, battery swapping is not a new business model. The battery swapping applications of NIO, BAIC and other car companies have allowed more consumers to see the energy-replenishing advantages of battery swapping. The national level is also strongly supporting the development of battery swapping models. Including the purchase subsidy for battery-swapped models and the pilot work of battery-swapping in many cities in China. In addition, the number of new energy vehicles continues to grow, and the contradiction between charging facilities and the demand for energy supplementation is increasingly prominent, and the energy supplementation market still has a lot of room for growth.
The research report of CITIC Securities pointed out that under the background of 3060, battery swapping has become an inevitable form to promote the popularization of new energy vehicles in all scenarios, and it is an effective supplement to charging. It predicts that 2022 is expected to become the first year of rapid development of the power exchange industry under the improvement of policies, capital, and its own product strength. It is expected that more than 3,000 new power exchange stations will be added throughout the year, and in 2025, the industry is expected to add more than 10,000 new power exchange stations. , that is, the growth space of ten times + in five years. It can be said that the time for the Ningde era to cut into the track may be on the eve of the rapid development of the battery swap mode.
Is the Ningde era the driving force behind the development of the battery swap model?
In fact, before its entry, players such as Weilai, BAIC, Geely, Aodong New Energy, Sinopec, and GCL Nengke have gathered in the field of battery swapping. However, the power exchange model has not yet achieved large-scale development. By the end of 2021, there are only 1,298 power exchange stations in my country, and the total number is still small.
Some analysts believe that although major domestic mainstream car companies are actively deploying battery swaps, each car company has its own technical standards for power batteries, and it is difficult for new energy vehicles of different brands and models to be compatible at the same swap station. At the same time, due to the high cost of construction and operation of power exchange stations, and the heavy asset burden of power exchange companies, it is difficult to achieve profitability in the short term, all of which limit the large-scale development of power exchange models.
Huang Chunhua, general manager of Aodong New Energy Brand and Public Affairs Center, has publicly suggested many times that the construction of an open battery swap service platform should be accelerated, and the battery swap models that are compatible with multiple brands and models should be realized as soon as possible; Based on the unified battery box standard, the battery standardization and unification will be gradually promoted. Only when the power exchange is standardized and unified, it is easy to replicate and develop into large-scale.
However, looking at the main players in the current layout of battery swaps, NIO and BAIC's battery swaps are only applicable to their own brands at this stage. Aodong New Energy has teamed up with a number of car companies to deploy more online car-hailing (B-side) scenarios. China Petrochemical has natural site advantages, but the layout of power exchange also requires cooperation with power exchange companies such as Weilai. Obviously, facing the C-end market, there is still a lack of a master in the field of battery swapping.
The Ningde era, which has entered the power exchange track, is more like this master. First, the Ningde era with a market value of one trillion has ample capital to replace the power; second, as an energy company, the core battery of the power exchange mode is self-contained. It is controllable; third, through years of supply cooperation with car companies, CATL is more aware of the needs of car companies for batteries and chassis. It is also based on this that CATL has launched a "chocolate battery" product for battery swap solutions. It is suitable for 80% of the models that have been launched in the world and will be launched in the next three years.
"Ningde era's solutions will play a very important role in promoting the standardization of battery modules and the development of body-chassis integration, or CATL is an important participant in it." Wang Xianbin, senior analyst at Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, believes that Ningde era The era will be an important driver for the development of the power exchange model. If the power exchange business of Ningde era can be rolled out nationwide, relevant companies in the power exchange industry chain are also expected to benefit. The layout of power exchange will also help Ningde era to further consolidate its market position. .
The battery belongs to the battery The car company belongs to the car company
The advantages of entering the power exchange in the Ningde era are obvious, but there are also many challenges. According to its plan, after the release of the battery replacement solution, CATL will select 10 cities across the country to start the battery replacement service and release more battery replacement models one after another.
In August 2021, Ningde Times established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Times Electric Service Technology Co., Ltd. in Xiamen, Fujian. Its business scope includes sales of new energy vehicle battery swap facilities, centralized fast charging stations, etc.; in September, Ningde Times and FAW Bestune jointly The Bestune NAT (parameters丨picture) battery-swapping version of the Exploration started to deliver 2,000 units in Liaoyuan, Jilin Province. In December, Times Electric Service established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Liaoyuan; in the same month, Ningde Times also signed a cooperation agreement with the Guizhou provincial government to build battery swaps Network protocol.
From the above point of view, the Ningde era may have determined the layout of Liaoyuan, Xiamen, and Guizhou provinces and cities for power exchange. Wang Xianbin believes that the first batch of power exchange cities in the CATL era will most likely choose cities with a relatively high number of new energy vehicles or a large market capacity of cooperative car companies to deploy power exchange stations. However, how to build a station and select a site in the future also involves issues such as land and power supply, which are also inevitable challenges in the Ningde era.
In addition to the selection of pilot cities, the CATL battery swap solution is also open to all car companies. Although it claims that the solution can be adapted to 80% of the models that have been launched and will be launched in the next three years, there is still great uncertainty as to whether car companies will choose the Ningde era battery replacement solution.
According to insiders of CATL, car companies do not need to make too many changes in vehicle manufacturing by adopting CATL's battery swap solution, do not need to adjust the chassis, but only need to develop a battery replacement bracket for chocolate batteries. In addition, with the Ningde era battery swap solution, once the vehicle has a safety problem with the battery, the holder of the battery asset (battery bank) will be held responsible. This means that the battery part of electric vehicles will be separated from car companies in the future, and the holder of battery assets will be responsible for supply, power exchange, operation and recycling.
"For car companies, the development of battery replacement brackets requires additional development costs. At the same time, car companies will also consider the cost of changing existing models and future models." Wang Xianbin believes that in the short term, most car companies will In a wait-and-see state, it also depends on whether the Ningde era will give benefits to car companies, and consider the benefit distribution of adopting its battery swap solution. This is actually a very important run-in between Ningde era and car companies.
However, there are also views that the promotion of any business model is not the choice of the enterprise, but the choice of the market. If the Ningde era battery swap solution can truly solve the pain points of consumers and balance the relationship with car companies, it is also beneficial for car companies to choose the Ningde era battery swap solution.
