In 2021, sales of pure electric vehicles in Western Europe will exceed 1 million for the first time, but will slow as the traditional combustion engine market, which is currently damaged by the new crown epidemic, returns to normal. By 2025, sales of pure electric vehicles will accelerate again, with a market share of 13%, according to Schmidt Automotive Research.
Most mainstream forecasters predict that by 2025, the market share of pure electric vehicles will be close to 19%.
At the same time, experts say the surge in electric vehicle sales relies on massive government subsidies, and when subsidies run out, demand could weaken significantly.
BEV sales will reach 1,045,500 units in 2021, accounting for 8.5% of the total market share of 12.3 million units, up from 6.7% in 2020. Growth in pure electric vehicles will slow to 1.18 million in 2022, 1.29 million in 2023, and 1.36 million in 2024, Schmidt Automotive Research said in a report. The market will recover to 14.3 million units, and the market share of pure electric vehicles will reach 9.5%.
The EU's next target for CO2 emissions by 2025 will shake the market. The next major emissions milestone will begin in five years.
“By 2025, due to the impact of the EU’s latest “five-year target for average carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles”, the market share of pure electric vehicles will increase significantly to 13%. This target will be 15% lower than the 2021 carbon emission level to 100g/ km WLTP or so.
Matthias Schmidt, an independent auto analyst, said: "This will lead to a relatively large increase in BEV registrations, thanks to the introduction of newer, cheaper models at the same time. "
Sales of plug-in hybrids are almost on par with demand for pure electric vehicles, reaching 11 percent in 2025, doubling from 5.6 percent in 2020, according to the Schmidt Automotive Research report.
Western Europe includes all of Europe's largest markets such as Germany, UK, France, Italy, Norway and Spain.
Leading data publisher IHS Markit is more optimistic about BEV sales, forecasting a market share of 19.1% in the EU in 2025 and 8.3% for plug-in hybrids. The EU is made up of 27 member states, but the lion's share of pure electric vehicles will be in the main, core Western European market.
Sales of pure electric vehicles in Europe doubled to 745,684 units in 2020, according to French consultancy Inovev. The company noted that these sales were mainly from Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Norway.
In 2020, sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids have been boosted by EU carbon dioxide emissions regulations, which force manufacturers to sell more electric vehicles. The German and French governments also offered substantial cash incentives. In Germany, buying an electric car can get nearly $11,000 off the government.
According to Christof Engelskirchen, chief economist at Autovista Group, these subsidies could lead to a contraction in the electric vehicle market, because once these subsidies disappear, pure electric vehicles will have to rely on their own advantages.
“Government-funded incentives are the driving force. This masks some of the challenges that will resurface after subsidies: pricing has to come down, range has to increase, and more charging facilities are needed.”
The top-selling model in Europe in 2020 was the Renault Zoe, followed by the Tesla Model 3, Volkswagen ID.3, Hyundai Kona and Audi E-Tron.
Globally, the top-selling vehicle in 2020 is the Tesla Model 3 (365,240 units) with a 17% market share, followed by Wuling Hongguang Mini EV (127,651 units), Renault Zoe and Tesla, according to Inovev. Model Y.
According to Inovev, Tesla is the world's leading pure electric vehicle manufacturer with 499,535 units sold, followed by China's SAIC with 243,201 units, followed by Volkswagen with 227,394 units of the Volkswagen brand, Porsche and Audi. Then there are 172,673 Renault-Nissan units.
In 2021, European consumers will have a new batch of pure electric vehicles to choose from, including the Volkswagen ID.4, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Audi RS e-tron, Mazda MX-30, Fiat 500e, Dacia (a Renault subsidiary) Spring , Skoda Enyaq, Mercedes EQA, B and S, BMW iX3, Nissan Ariya and Tesla Model Y.
Beyond 2025, Schmidt said, manufacturers will try to use profits from combustion-engine vehicles to prepare for all-electric vehicles while still capable.
“The EU’s imminent tougher 2030 regulations will begin to mark the end of the internal combustion engine era in many markets. Until then, legacy carmakers will try to capitalize on the profits from their most successful internal combustion engine vehicles to provide more fuel for pure electric vehicles. Build a bridge."
Manly Battery which located in Shenzhen,China. A leading Lithium battery manufacturer over 12 years ,widly used for Robostic industry,if there is any project need to evluate ,pls feel free tosend email to info@manlybatteries.com
