Entering 2020, a variety of battery skills competition continues to upgrade. But it is undeniable that lithium battery skills will be difficult to be subverted for a long time to come.
This year's government work report highlights the need to strengthen the construction of new infrastructure, develop a new generation of information networks, broaden the use of 5G, the construction of charging piles, the implementation of new power cars, stimulate new consumer demand, help industrial upgrading.
As we all know, the "construction of charging piles", "the implementation of new power cars" are inseparable from the development of the lithium industry, in fact, "broaden the use of 5G" will also be the use of lithium batteries to speed up the penetration, expand the scale of investment, pull the new type of consumption of the new key.
"Broaden the use of 5G will bring high-speed addition to the lithium industry, will further expand the use of lithium batteries, lithium batteries will have a huge increase in demand for the mall." Tang Yougen, director of the Institute of Chemical Power and Materials of Central South University, told the battery network: first, 5G use will promote the electrification of society and intelligent development, 5G communication and large-scale mobile power and lax energy storage will be added rapidly, and there will be a new increment of energy storage lithium-ion batteries; second, 5G use will accelerate the development of intelligent cars, promote the large-scale spread of electric cars, and directly drive the demand for power battery shopping malls Finally, the use of 5G will enable the further development of cell phones, computers, daily appliances and other consumer electronics products, consumer lithium-ion batteries will usher in a new round of additions. At the same time, the use of 5G will also promote the rapid development of smart homes, smart communities, smart social services and various mobile robots, and the demand for supporting lithium batteries will increase significantly.
Broaden the use of 5G will accelerate the use of lithium battery penetration, driving the development of a number of segments of the lithium battery market
Li-ion battery for 5G communication and energy storage
Now many countries around the world are accelerating the commercialization of 5G, 5G base stations and other "new infrastructure" capital investment continues to heat up: China Mobile's 2020 capital expenditure landing, in which 5G-related capital expenditure of about 100 billion, accounting for 55.6%; China Tower's 2020 capital expenditure estimates, a total of 28 billion out of 17.8 billion is 5G-related capital expenditure. Guoxin Securities estimates that 5G construction will be launched on a large scale in 2020, peaking in 2021-2023 and gradually maturing in 2024-2025.
"Now, we are adding about 10,000+ 5G base stations every week. in April, 5G users added more than 7 million a month and accumulated more than 36 million households." On May 25, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei revealed in an interview via web video method that the speed of 5G construction has been accelerated since this year.
On May 19, Gan Bin, vice president of Huawei's wireless product line, also indicated at Huawei's 17th Global Analyst Conference that the country has now completed the construction of 200,000 5G base stations, and it is estimated that by the end of this year, 800,000 5G base stations will be built, covering more than 340 cities across the country.
With the accelerated construction of 5G base stations, communications 5G lithium battery shopping mall is also ushering in a substantial increase. 2020, only China Mobile and China Tower released the lithium iron phosphate battery pack product tender is close to 4GWh.
On April 27, China Mobile 2020 communication goodwill lithium iron phosphate products will be acquired in the project bid opening, in the sky technology, sea four up, double deng group, billion lithium, Nandu power, Xiongtao power, light Yu power, Li Lang battery 8 companies won the bid.
May 25, China's tower 2020 backup with lithium iron phosphate battery pack products intensive electric acquisition project announcement of the results of the winning bid, Shuangdeng Group, Nandu Power, Zhi Tai New Power, Penghui Power, Zhongtian Technology 5 enterprises pre-winning bid.
The above two lithium battery assembly acquisition project, the estimated total amount of more than 1.3 billion yuan. In addition, China Unicom and China Telecom has also announced that this year will jointly collect no less than 250,000 5G base stations, it is estimated that the lithium battery industry will welcome another 1 billion yuan of large single.
5G lithium battery for smart network connected cars
This year's national two sessions, BAIC Group Chairman Xu Heyi, Chery car Chairman Yin Tongyue, SAIC Group Chairman Chen Hong, Xiaokang car Chairman Zhang Xinghai and many other representatives have been talking about 5G skills and intelligent network-connected car industry development.
On April 24, Huawei joined FAW Group (FAW Hongqi, FAW Feiyue, FAW Liberation), Chang'an Sedan, Chunfeng Group (Chunfeng passenger cars, Chunfeng Xiaokang), SAIC Group (SAIC passenger cars, SAIC GM Wuling), GAC Group (GAC New Power), BAIC Group (BAIC New Power), BYD, Great Wall Sedan, Chery Holdings, JAC Sedan, Yutong (bus), Ceres, Nanjing Iveco Vico, T3 travel and other first 18 car companies, officially established the "5G car ecosystem".
In mid-April, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "2020 smart network connected car standardization work points", the standardization of China's smart network connected car and the phase of the task made instructions. The main points of the work pointed out that 2020 is the closing year of the completion of the first phase of the construction of the smart network connected car standard system goals, but also the next phase of the work plan layout year.
Before that, the domestic SAIC Rongwei, Guangqi new power, Great Wall car, the new Baojun, Weimar car and many other car companies have long laid out 5G smart network connected car category. Local governments and car companies have also started to establish 5G intelligent network connected car demonstration area, open 5G intelligent network connected car demonstration line.
Battery network noted that, from the layout of the car companies, now has been exposed to the 5G smart network connected car production models are new power cars, as 5G car burst key year, this year, a number of production models will be listed in succession.
In addition, the recently released "IDC Global Smart Connected Car Guess Report" shows that the vehicles that can be connected to third-party service channels and the global smart connected car shipments equipped with embedded mobile networks, reached 51.1 million units in 2019, an increase of 45.4% compared to 2018. IDC estimates that by 2023, global smart connected car shipments will further increase to 76.3 million units, an annual increase rate of 9.3%.
At this stage, the development and use of smart connected cars is still in its infancy, but with the increase in shipments of 5G smart electric models, the demand for lithium-powered batteries in the market will also expand.
Consumer electronics and smart home products with lithium batteries
Research institutions Markets and Markets released a report, said this year, the global lithium-ion battery market demand will reach $ 44.2 billion, to 2025 will increase to $ 94.4 billion, during the compound annual rate of increase of 16.4%. In terms of capacity range, 3,000-10,000mAh is expected to increase at the highest CAGR during the forecast period, especially in consumer electronics, electric cars, aerospace, defense, and power stuffs. The growing consumer electronics and smartphone malls are adding to the demand for high-powered batteries that can keep devices running for long periods of time while supplying the best device experience thanks to large screens and backup power.
Data released by research firm EVTank shows that the shipments of lithium-ion batteries in the small category in 2019 were 46.5 Gwh, an increase of 23.3% year-on-year, mainly due to the fact that lithium batteries for the categories of electric things, electric bicycles and vacuum cleaners maintained a fast rate of increase in 2019. In addition, the increase in smartphones, especially the 5G version of smartphones, has also driven the increase in shipments of small class lithium-ion batteries.
In terms of enterprises, in 2019, Xinwanda consumer lithium batteries achieved revenue of 18.546 billion yuan, an increase of 24.27% compared with 2018; Desai batteries achieved revenue of 18.443 billion yuan in 2019, an increase of 6.92% compared with the same period last year, and the company's operating income from consumer electronics lithium battery-related products accounted for about 90% of the revenue.
In 2020, with the arrival of the 5G era, the demand for consumer electronics and smart home products carrying power is also getting higher and higher, with smaller and smaller volume requirements and longer and longer service life, the battery's skill upgrade, product replacement and mall expansion will also speed up in many aspects.
However, although in the wind of the new 5G infrastructure, the above lithium battery use mall prospects, but in the early stage of the start, the mall is not easy to broaden.
For example, the above-mentioned China Mobile 2020 communication goodwill lithium iron phosphate products will be acquired in the project, in the winning companies, the lowest bid unit price of about 0.66 yuan / Wh, the highest about 0.74 yuan / Wh. For such a price, a number of industry sources indicate that the price is far below expectations.
"Part of the lithium battery products super cheap price won the bid, on the one hand, due to the progress of skills, so that the battery cost reduction, on the other hand, the enterprise's marketing strategy of the mall." Tang Yougen also believes that "no profitable mall behavior is not sustainable, the mall standards will enable battery companies to return to normal development. 5G communication reputation lithium-ion battery mall prospects are good, but the domestic lithium battery production capacity is huge, the competition is inevitable."
"0.66 yuan / wh = 2.112 yuan / Ah , lithium iron phosphate cathode + graphite cathode + electrolyte + collector + shell accessories and other battery materials cost price may be more than 0.66 yuan / wh, plus labor, utilities, depreciation, I think there is no need to count the details, in short, is not profitable." In the opinion of Wang Qingsheng, president of China-Russia New Power Materials Technology Research Institute, the low-price competition is one of the main reasons why the quality and function of batteries cannot be improved.
Wang Qingsheng believes that the 5G mall covered by the mall and products ultimately have to rely on the function and product skills to do support, the mall will still be subdivided, to portable digital, smart home, remote control, unmanned, drive equipment, base station power backup and other categories to bring new mall space, but this also puts forward higher requirements for battery function and functionality.
"Different segments of the mall product positioning pricing is also different, will not just rely on the price to win the mall discourse." Wang Qingsheng indicated that high safety, high multiplier, high capacity, long life, small volume, wide temperature all-round battery more attention is a common problem in the battery industry, high-quality battery mall capacity remains large.
Wang Qingsheng further example, the future development of 5G intelligent network in intelligent control, face recognition, intelligent avoidance, driverless, network services, etc. brings high speed, precision, personalized, driven by the new trend of the development of new power car, but whether it is 5G intelligent network car is still the present day electric car on lithium battery function, function, safety are the same requirements or even higher some requirements. "For the new power car shopping mall to promote whether to produce more impact, depending on the 5G mall product use function and the acceptance of the masses, do not see all will love, because too cumbersome control at least not the favorite of the middle-aged and elderly; in addition, the stability of the networked car security (refers to the cyberspace security does not include battery safety) whether to pass will also restrain some People's choice; then there is the issue of price, according to the design of the 5G network link should be higher than the current electric car, then how to position the price? 5G intelligent network car positioning of the market crowd in where? 5G network connected car in the end can bring how much increase in the lithium battery mall, we will see."
Conclusion: Although the entire lithium battery market is already a "red sea", but in many segments of the market, is still a "blue ocean". Enterprises to open up new shopping malls in order to find new profit points of addition, with the continuous expansion of 5G mall capacity, there will be more and more battery industry chain enterprises to enter, if at the beginning of the mall cultivation, "lose money to earn", rely on low-cost strategy to cut into the mall, the mall is not up into the price war, the blue sea into the red sea, the entire industrial chain will be frustrated.
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