Ternary or lithium iron, which material system has a better market share now or in the future? This problem that has existed since the beginning of the development of new energy vehicles has always been a topic that people cannot avoid when discussing lithium batteries. Especially with the rise of the new energy vehicle industry in recent years, the battle between ternary and iron-lithium battery systems has attracted more attention. .
In the past 8 years or so, ternary and iron-lithium have also "lived up to expectations" and have successively occupied the market opportunities, relying on their own advantages and policy trends to "lead the way" for several years; with the decline of the new energy subsidy policy last year , and the improvement of the energy density of lithium iron batteries in recent years, the advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are prominent, and it seems that it has become an indisputable fact that it will occupy more than half of the market share of power batteries in the future. The recycling market will also have to face the problem of recycling battery routes. .
As we all know, the current lithium battery recycling market is limited by factors such as technology and cost, and the recycled material has always been closely related to the cathode material system. It can be said that the current development route of cathode materials determines the future market size of lithium battery recycling.
According to this logic, it seems that with the increase in the share of iron-lithium batteries in the current high-growth power battery installed capacity, the proportion of iron-lithium batteries in the batteries that will be retired in the future will also be larger. Lithium battery, who will be the main force in the recycling market?
1. Waste ternary and lithium cobalt oxide batteries are currently the "leaders" of the recycling market
Before the outbreak of new energy vehicles, the most popular ternary batteries in the market are mainly used in power bank, low-end digital and other fields, and lithium cobalt oxide batteries mainly used in the field of 3C digital.
Lithium manganate batteries with two-wheeled vehicles and portable tools as the main application areas, although there is a lot of retirement, but in terms of recycling value and potential future scrap, they are not as good as other types of lithium batteries.
2. In the next 5 years, retired iron-lithium batteries will have a tendency to catch up
Among the main application fields of the four major types of lithium batteries, the current market growth is particularly rapid in the power field, and the power battery material system is dominated by ternary and iron-lithium. At present, iron-lithium surpasses ternary by its relative advantages, but it is reflected in In terms of battery retirement, it will be 5-7 years later.
According to our forecast of future lithium battery decommissioning under the forecast of future demand for lithium batteries, it is expected that the used batteries in the recycling market will usher in a structural reversal in 2029. At that time, the decommissioning volume of iron-lithium batteries will exceed ternary yuan, occupying the recycling The market is "half of the country".
However, for most recycling companies, lithium batteries containing high-value metals, such as ternary and lithium cobalt oxide, are more willing to recycle, and waste iron-lithium batteries were "cold" in the first half of last year and before. The price of lithium carbonate soared in the second half of last year, and the recovery value of iron and lithium began to appear.
Unexpectedly, although the profit margin of the recycling plant has been greatly improved, it is not as impressive as lithium carbonate.
According to the estimation of the recovery cost and the understanding of the market situation, when the price of lithium carbonate is above 100,000-120,000 yuan/ton, the waste iron-lithium battery has recycling value.
At present, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is still above 450,000 yuan / ton, and the price is still strong. The recent second auction of Australian lithium miner Pilbara this year has pushed the price expectation of lithium carbonate to a climax. According to the forecast of the future price of lithium carbonate, it is difficult for the price of lithium carbonate to fall below 150,000 yuan/ton in the next five years, and the future recycling market is still promising!
