According to a new survey by accounting and consulting firm KPMG, auto industry executives expect electric vehicles to account for just over half of new car sales in the US and China by 2030, and could reach that proportion without government subsidies, foreign media reported.
KPMG conducted its latest annual survey of 1,000 auto executives. According to the survey, executives believe electric vehicles will account for 52 per cent of new car sales in the US, China and Japan by 2030, with a smaller share in Western Europe, Brazil and India. But behind the headline forecast, executives take a very different view.
In China, the world's largest car market, some auto executives expect electric vehicles to account for less than 20 per cent of new car sales by 2030, while others believe they could account for 80 per cent of new car sales in China by then.
So far, global sales of electric vehicles have been driven by government subsidies. But 77 per cent of respondents to the KPMG survey said mass adoption of electric vehicles could be achieved within 10 years without government assistance, as battery costs fell to levels comparable to those of internal combustion engines. But 91 percent of auto executives said they supported government subsidies.
The survey also showed that 75 per cent of executives surveyed expect companies to reassess which businesses are survivable and sell "non-core" assets over the next few years as more new cars switch to battery-powered technology. "There will be a lot of m&a activity in the automotive industry," said Gary Silberg, global head of BMV's automotive business.
Despite the supply chain crisis and production disruptions caused by the pandemic over the past year, some 53% of executives surveyed said they believed the auto industry could grow profitably over the next five years. The most optimistic executives were from the US and China, while the most pessimistic were from France, according to the survey.
Internal combustion engines, including hybrids, are expected to retain a significant share of most major auto markets in the coming years, the survey also showed.
The pace at which automakers are phasing out internal-combustion vehicles and their carbon emissions is a key issue facing the global auto industry. In early November, a group of automakers and countries signed a statement calling for rich countries to phase out internal-combustion vehicles by 2035 and for the world to phase them out by 2040.
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