According to data from the China Bicycle Association, in 2019, my country completed 27.077 million electric bicycles, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. Up to now, the number of electric bicycles is nearly 300 million, and the scale is growing at a rapid rate of 30 million each year, ranking No. 1 in the world. One. At the same time, with the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, the new standard will promote the replacement of lead-acid batteries with lithium batteries in the field of electric bicycles.
"Currently, the lithium battery penetration rate is about 10%. With the promotion of lithium batteries, electric vehicles by policies, manufacturers, and consumers, the lithium battery penetration rate is expected to exceed 80% in 2022. According to the 48V/12AH charge demand for electric bicycles, it is estimated that in 2022 The demand for lithium batteries will exceed 17GWh. According to the calculation of the 70% lithium penetration rate of 250 million electric bicycles in the country, the entire market is expected to demand 100GWh." An industry insider roughly calculated an account.
Data from the Advanced Industry Research Institute of Lithium Battery Research (GGII) also show that, driven by strong downstream demand, China’s bicycle lithium battery shipments reached 5.450GWh in 2019, an increase of 61.5% year-on-year. It is expected to increase to 8.448GWh in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 55%.
It is worth noting that driven by emerging industries such as express delivery and food delivery, users of electric bicycles have significantly improved battery performance requirements. On the one hand, lead-acid batteries under the existing technical conditions are difficult to meet the demand; on the other hand, lithium battery technology is iterated quickly, and the cost has dropped, again and again, making the application of lithium batteries in the electric bicycle market promising.
Gao Xiaobing, deputy dean of the Advanced Industry Research Institute, optimistically stated that the coverage of lithium battery electric bicycles will achieve a compound growth rate of 23% from 2019 to 2023, and it is expected to reach 33.1 million in 2023. Judging from the market situation this year, the market pricing of major brands of lithium batteries has been lowered to a certain extent. With the advantages of greater energy density, cleaner, environmentally friendly, and lighter products, the replacement of lead batteries by lithium batteries has accelerated significantly. . It is estimated that my country's lithium battery electric bicycles will exceed 10 million in 2020, and the penetration rate will exceed 50% by 2021, achieving a major reversal of the industrial pattern.
It is not easy to share the pie. Due to the huge stock of lead-acid batteries, the prospect of "Lead to Lithium" in the field of electric bicycles is attractive, but the road to alternatives is not smooth.
At present, it is not easy for entrants from the field of new energy vehicle power batteries to unify the arena in the field of electric bicycles. They met an opponent they had never encountered before: As a global leader in lithium batteries for light vehicles, Xingheng Power’s lithium battery shipments have been ranked first in the world for many years.
"Lithium battery companies coming from across borders want to profit from the electric bicycle market. The difficulty can be imagined. They are facing challenges in terms of cost, channels, and product standards," said an industry insider.
Currently, there are more than 70 lithium battery companies supporting electric bicycles in my country, and new brands are constantly entering. According to industry insiders, during the market transition period of "lead to lithium", the electric bicycle lithium battery market will usher in a more tragic "shuffle".
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