This year, the new energy vehicle industry has ushered in a demand explosion. As of November, domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.023 million and 2.990 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times. More than the combined sales of the past two years.
The boom in production and sales has brought about a boom in the industry. Therefore, in 2021, stocks in major A-share industries with the concept of new energy vehicles will skyrocket, and the mutual greetings of fund managers will change from "Is there any liquor?" to "Is there any new energy?"
The ballast stone of the new energy vehicle industry chain is the battery, which is further dismantled. The battery is composed of the so-called four diamonds, namely the positive electrode, the negative electrode, the electrolyte, and the diaphragm. The cathode material is the most important part of the four major materials. Why do you say that?
The positive electrode is the most important point of force for the advancement of materials technology. We know that improving energy density is a key factor in solving the mileage anxiety of new energy vehicles. Specifically, the main function of the separator is to isolate the positive and negative electrodes and prevent electrons from passing through, while allowing lithium ions to pass through;
The electrolyte is responsible for conducting lithium ions, and the two mainly affect the safety performance of lithium ions, which can be understood as safety components. The negative electrode affects the fast charging performance and cycle life of the battery more, so the performance of the positive electrode material largely determines the energy density of the battery.
The positive electrode is the most important force for reducing the system cost. The cost of power batteries accounts for 30%-40% of the cost of the whole vehicle. In the context of the gradual decline of domestic subsidies, cost reduction has become the top priority of the industry. The cost of cathode materials accounts for up to 40% of the cost of power batteries, and it is a material that car companies and battery companies dream of saving.
In fact, since the introduction of lithium batteries in the 1990s, its development has been on the road of exploring cathode materials. The Lifepo4 Battery, ternary battery, and lithium cobalt oxide battery we see today are all named after the positive electrode material.
After more than 30 years of development, there are actually quite a few cathode materials currently used for lithium batteries. The industrialized ones mainly include lithium cobalt oxide (LCO), lithium manganate (LMO), Lifepo4 Battery and ternary materials (NCM, NCA).
Among them, lithium cobalt oxide is the earliest industrialized cathode material, and the technology is relatively mature. At present, it is mainly used in consumer electronic products such as mobile phones; lithium iron phosphate and ternary are mainly used in power batteries, which are the two routes that attract the most attention in the market. The battle between these two major material directions is also quite a story, and it is also the focus of the analysis below.
Can lithium iron phosphate still dominate?
In fact, since the development of new energy vehicles in my country in 2009, until 2015, the Lifepo4 Battery with low cost and high cycle life has been the mainstream route, accounting for up to more than 70% (limited by energy density, pure electric passenger vehicles at that time) The cars are mainly small and micro).
The turning point was in 2017, with the adjustment of policy subsidies to encourage the pursuit of high energy density and the advancement of ternary lithium battery technology, the ternary battery, which is mainly based on high energy density, gradually replaced the Lifepo4 Battery and became the mainstream of the industry, with a rapid increase to 67%. , it seems that the cathode material dispute has been concluded at that time.
But in the past year or so, lithium iron phosphate has sounded the horn of a counterattack. Since the beginning of last year, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries has started to catch up with ternary batteries from 38.3%. By June this year, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate has surpassed the installed capacity of ternary batteries for five consecutive months.
The performance of lithium iron phosphate batteries this year can be said to be quite impressive. From January to October, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 53.2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 316.4%, accounting for 49.5% of the total installed capacity. Today, lithium iron phosphate batteries It has formed a trend of sharing the world with ternary batteries. From the perspective of production, lithium iron phosphate batteries have long been higher than ternary batteries.
The first question to answer is why lithium iron phosphate can still "resurrection", and the reason is mainly the catalytic results of the following three aspects (you can also refer to the related articles of brocade in the past for more discussion):
1) Cost. Nowadays, the decline of policy stickers has forced car companies to control costs, and car companies have further put forward cost reduction requirements for power battery companies, and lithium iron phosphate with lower costs has begun to be valued. Now, many car companies including Tesla and Xiaopeng have also launched lithium iron phosphate versions. Even Daimler Group said that cheaper but lower power lithium iron phosphate batteries will be used in the future.
2) Structural innovation. The CTP and BYD blade battery and manly battery technology of the CATL have brought the energy density of the lithium iron phosphate battery to a new level from the perspective of the whole vehicle.
3) Security. With the increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles, there are more and more electric vehicles in the streets and alleys, and safety has gradually attracted more attention from the market, rather than the previous energy density theory.
Compared with ternary, the advantages of lithium iron phosphate are reflected in low cost, long cycle life, and superior safety. When the market orientation tends to emphasize low cost and safety, it is not difficult to foresee the resurgence of lithium iron phosphate.
But the wonderful story may not end at the above. The technological innovation of batteries is like a couple in love, and there are always endless topics to talk about. We have observed that the wind direction of the new energy market may turn again, and the positive market may once again usher in a turning point.
On November 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Regulations for the Li-ion Battery Industry (2021 Version)" (Draft for Comment) and the "Administrative Measures for the Announcement of Lithium-Ion Battery Industry Specifications (2021 Version)" (Draft for Comment). Among them, it is proposed to guide enterprises to reduce manufacturing projects that simply expand production capacity, strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality, and reduce production costs.
Going deep into the details, the new specification requires: the energy density of the energy-based power battery project should be ≥180Wh/kg, and the energy density of the battery pack should be ≥120Wh/kg. For the energy density requirements of the battery pack, the current ternary and lithium iron phosphate are basically not restricted by the new regulations, but for the requirements of the single energy density, the mainstream lithium iron phosphate battery single energy density is still around 160Wh/kg, a considerable part The product is not yet able to meet the new regulations.
Therefore, as soon as the opinion draft was released, many power battery companies received concern and greetings from many investors: Can the single energy density of the company's lithium iron phosphate battery meet the new requirements, and is there any difficulty in mass production?
Of course, the new specification is not to suppress the development of lithium iron phosphate route. In fact, the new specification also puts forward new requirements for cathode materials: lithium iron phosphate specific capacity ≥ 150Ah/kg; ternary material specific capacity ≥ 175Ah/kg. The current industry situation is that the high nickel materials of the ternary 8 series and above are undoubtedly up to the standard, but the mass production specific capacity of the ternary 5 series and below may not meet the standard, and the ternary materials must also be nervous.
The new standard is to encourage everyone to work hard in the direction of high energy density and high product quality, not to draw a conclusion on the "route battle" between lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. For the ternary battery recently suppressed by lithium iron phosphate, due to its The natural high energy density attribute once again ushered in the east wind of development.
[2] Terminal demand is the first driving force
After all, policies can only give directions, and consumer demand is real.
The major event in the auto industry recently is the Guangzhou Auto Show. The big difference from the past is that this auto show is not only a joint venture car company, but even domestic car companies have intensively released high-end electric models of more than 200,000 yuan, and their pure electric battery life. All are above 600km, and many models even reach 1000km. High-end electric vehicles with long cruising range have become the highlight of the auto show.
In fact, with the accumulation of national wealth, people's requirements and quality of vehicles are getting higher and higher, and the market demand for mid-to-high-end electric vehicles is increasing. A and B-class electric vehicles are becoming a new driving force. From the newly unveiled models at the Guangzhou Auto Show to the best-selling models of NIO ES8, Xiaopeng P7, and Lynk & Co 001, this trend has quietly occurred.
Referring to the fuel vehicle market, A and B-class vehicles are the mainstream, and there is basically no market for A00-class models. In the new energy market, the low-endurance A00-class models account for the highest proportion, but their market share is gradually shrinking; on the other hand, the penetration rate of high-endurance B-class electric vehicles is rapidly increasing.
On the other hand, A00-class car owners buy cost-effective (low cost) cars. A00-class cars such as Wuling Hongguang MINI and Changan Benben are positioned for urban transportation, and their application scenarios are very limited. electric car to go far.
Another point, which is easy to be overlooked, with the advent of the second half of automotive intelligence, additional functions such as smart cockpit, autonomous driving, and in-car entertainment will also further increase power consumption (for the second half of automotive intelligence, we will report in the near future. exhibit)
The conclusion is: the future load of the battery on the car will only get higher and higher.
Then the problem comes. With the launch of mid-to-high-end models one after another, the cruising range will become an important parameter, and the ternary battery, which is temporarily suppressed by lithium iron phosphate, may usher in strong demand support.
【3】America's baton
As the world's second largest auto market, the U.S. market has about 17 million auto sales, but the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the United States in the first three quarters of this year was only 3.7%. In this global wave of electrification, the United States has previously given the outside world the impression that there is no sense of participation at all, and the United States even withdrew from the Paris Agreement during the Trump administration.
However, after the new leader came to power, the situation reversed 180 degrees. In August this year, the Biden administration proposed a goal of achieving 50% of the sales of new energy vehicles in the United States by 2030. Three months later, the US House of Representatives passed Biden's $1.75 trillion. The stimulus bill, which has greatly exceeded market expectations for new energy subsidies.
With the new government's support for new energy vehicles, it is expected that the United States will also catch up with this wave of new energy and become the most anticipated market for the industry chain next year. With the acceleration of the electrification transformation of traditional local car companies such as GM and Ford, and the growth of new forces such as Tesla and Lucid, the supply side of new energy vehicles in the United States is not a big problem.
The following is the key point. The local battery supply of new energy vehicles in the United States is mainly the factories of LG Chem, Panasonic, Samsung SDI, SKI, and other Japanese and Korean companies in the United States, and the above-mentioned companies are mainly based on the ternary route.
It is worth reiterating that Tesla, as the leader of electric vehicles, is also keen on the ternary route. Although the domestic Model 3 has recently adopted the Lifepo4 Battery solution, it has not changed its ternary-based development route at all. The 4680 large cylindrical battery released by Musk on "Battery Day" last year is one of the masterpieces of his ternary high-nickel route. After 2022, Tesla and Panasonic's 4680 high-nickel cylindrical batteries will usher in mass production, and domestic related industry chain companies have already participated.
03
Reorganization of investment ideas
After the above analysis, we have a further understanding of the history, current situation and future of the "fighting method" of the two major cathode materials, and to map the capital market, we are bound to sort out the investment ideas of cathode materials for lithium batteries again.
[1] The improvement of energy density becomes the main theme again
Since last year, lithium iron phosphate has been on fire until now, and it has a tendency to overthrow the ternary. A large part of the reason is that everyone has begun to pay attention to cost and safety rather than pure energy density (mileage). But in fact, the improvement of energy density (mileage) has always been a key factor in the progress of the new energy industry.
Why does the country stare at energy density? As mentioned above, mileage anxiety is an important factor restricting the large-scale promotion of new energy vehicles. Although the current mainstream electric vehicles have a battery life of about 500 kilometers (with a discount for actual use), the gap is still relatively large compared with fuel vehicles.
If the real cruising range of an electric vehicle reaches 800 kilometers, or even more than 1,000 kilometers, the owner's mileage anxiety will be greatly reduced. Tesla, the most successful car company in the commercialization of new energy vehicles, has continuously improved its cruising range in the past decade, which also shows the importance of energy density.
So how can the energy density of the battery continue to increase? It is nothing more than innovation at the level of material systems and structures.
Let’s talk about material system innovation first. For lithium iron phosphate, limited by the theoretical specific capacity (170mAh/g) of lithium iron phosphate material, the room for improving the energy density of battery cells has become smaller and smaller. On the contrary, ternary materials are in the rapid iteration period of technology. From NCM333 to NCM523 to NCM811, their energy density is gradually increasing. Compared with the current mainstream ternary NCM523, the energy density of NCM811 can be increased by about 18%.
In fact, the ternary cathode material combines the advantages of three cathode materials, lithium cobalt oxide (LiCoO2), lithium nickelate (LiNiO2) and lithium manganate (LiMnO2). The ratio of metal elements varies and can be continuously optimized.
For structural innovation, the optimization of the current battery structure has been simplified. For example, CTP technology and blade battery, the components that can be saved in the battery pack are saved. In the future, only CTC technology (no module) will be left, and there is room for energy density improvement. Getting smaller and smaller. All of these are destined to be difficult for lithium iron phosphate to make achievements in long-life batteries, so this new policy is to make ternary batteries develop towards high nickel.
【2】 Cheap and cheap
Have you noticed that the sales of new energy vehicles are in a dumbbell shape, with high sales of high-end models and low-end mobility models, and small sales of intermediate economy models. The reason why this happens is that the price of power batteries is not cheap enough.
At this point, some people will say that to compete for cost, isn't that still the strong point of lithium iron phosphate batteries?
In fact, although the cost of the ternary battery is higher than that of lithium iron phosphate at this stage, there is still a lot of room for its cost to fall due to the innovation of the material system.
In the cost of ternary cathode, the cost of raw materials has a significant impact on the price of ternary materials, accounting for more than 80%, especially the price of cobalt, which has been high, and the external dependence of cobalt materials is as high as 90%. At present, the unanimous solution in the industry is to adopt a high-nickel, low-cobalt or even cobalt-free solution.
According to industry estimates, the cobalt content of the cathode material of NCM811 battery is reduced from 12.2% to 6.1% compared with that of NCM523, which translates to the reduction of cobalt consumption per kWh of power battery from 0.22kg to 0.09kg, a drop of as high as 59%. Today, the material cost advantage of ternary high nickel is more and more prominent. Since the beginning of this year, the proportion of high nickel in ternary has increased from 20% at the beginning to nearly 50% now.
Secondly, after the ternary cathode develops to high nickel, its energy density is generally 20-30% higher than that of lithium iron phosphate or three kinds of medium nickel. , aluminum foil and other costs will also decline simultaneously.
Furthermore, due to the high difficulty of preparation of ternary high-nickel materials, the current mass production scale is still small. In the future, with the increase in sales of electric vehicles, the scale effect and production yield increase (the current industry yield rate is about 80%) , can also further reduce costs.
In the long run, the cost gap between ternary high nickel and lithium iron phosphate will become smaller and smaller. According to calculations by Caitong Securities, it is expected that the cost of high-nickel batteries will eventually be comparable to that of lithium iron phosphate in 2030.
