Lithium batteries have monopolized the electrochemical energy storage in both the stock market and the new market. In the field of energy storage batteries, with the increasing pressure of environmental protection, a large number of environmentally friendly lithium ion batteries have become the general trend and have a broad market prospect.
Lithium iron phosphate battery is superior to lead-acid battery in many technical indicators, and there is a huge space for substitution and electrochemical energy storage. By the end of 2019, lead-acid batteries ranked second in China's cumulative installed electrochemical energy storage capacity, accounting for 17.8%, and lithium ion batteries accounted for 98.4%, which is the main technical route of electrochemical energy storage.
Lead acid battery production of 202.5 2019 Gwh, as lithium electricity costs down, the future will be better than the lead-acid batteries, lithium-ion batteries if all replacement, according to the price of 0.5 yuan/wh conservative calculation, replace market space also will amount to billions, stack as a decline in the cost of lithium-ion battery will bring huge economy to energy storage project, in the long term development of lithium electricity and energy storage is expected to be resonant, open the huge market space.
The proportion of lithium iron phosphate will remain at 40% by 2025
The amount of iron lithium installed in 2020 is less than 30GW, and we estimate that it will reach 200 GW in about 3 years to 2023. The performance of listed companies can also be perceived. Guoxuan Hi-Tech has an income of 2 billion to 2.5 billion in Q4, which also exceeds the market expectation.
From the perspective of material enterprises, more and more chemical enterprises have entered the market of lithium iron phosphate, such as Anada, Longanboa Bai Li, Santai Holdings, etc., as well as the CNNC titanium dioxide 500,000 tons of expansion plan, which proves the certainty of LFP industry β in the next few years.
Lithium iron phosphate is expected to play a large role in the passenger car market, not necessarily more than three yuan, but also a large proportion, is expected to maintain 40% in 2025. Tesla will start the model cycle of lithium iron phosphate in 2020, and mass production of lithium iron phosphate model will begin in 2023.
Effective productivity of lithium iron phosphate is highly insufficient
Lithium iron phosphate route is the only material segment with positive growth in 2020, and there will be a weakening of tight supply and demand pattern by the end of 2022. We estimate that 124,000 tons, 26,450,000 to 500,000 tons in 2020~22, which will double for two consecutive years, and 1.58 million tons in 2025, exceeding the market space of three yuan materials. At present, the industry effective capacity is highly insufficient, especially the chemical properties of the precursor iron phosphate production expansion is difficult.
A hundred flowers bloom in the process, and the difference in electricity costs is the key
Technology, solid phase, liquid phase, iron oxalate, iron nitrate, all of these are driving costs down. The cost split of lithium iron phosphate mainly depends on the precursor and electricity charge, because lithium carbonate is purchased from outside, everyone is the same, the difference of electricity charge is the location layout, for example, Jiangsu is certainly higher than Yunnan's electricity cost, and the difference of precursor and process route.
The development of energy storage is less than expected, the new energy generation is less than expected, the marketization of auxiliary power services is less than expected, the construction of 5G base station is less than expected, and the cost reduction of lithium electricity is less than expected.
