Industry data show that in 2019, China's lithium iron phosphate material production of about 100,000 tons, which is mainly distributed in January-May and September-October, the production is more concentrated mainly by the new energy vehicle production and sales, and new energy vehicle production and sales are affected by the subsidy policy, thus showing this distribution.
January-March this year, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the new energy vehicle market almost came to a standstill, the electric vehicle market for lithium iron phosphate demand also fell to a freezing point, but lithium iron phosphate material production by the impact is not large. Data show that since March lithium iron phosphate material production has returned to last year's average line. "5G base station energy storage market in the first half of the demand is more obvious, especially China Mobile, China Tower two lithium iron phosphate bidding on 4GWh," industry analysts believe that the first half of the 5G base station and other energy storage market has become the main demand, the east does not light up the west, energy storage business led lithium iron phosphate materials quickly rebounded.
According to battery China Network, as of the end of May, including China Tower, China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom, radio and television systems and Huawei built a total of about 440,000 5G base stations. According to the planning of several enterprises mentioned above, 1.15 million more 5G base stations will be built this year. Combined with the scale of investment and construction, it is expected that this year only 5G base stations with lithium iron phosphate demand is expected to reach 10GWh.
This market explosion, will also drive the growth of lithium iron phosphate materials. Some institutions expect that this year's lithium iron phosphate material production is expected to reach 130,000 tons, an increase of up to 30%, and ternary material production on par. This will also change the lithium iron phosphate materials in recent years by the ternary material gap is getting bigger and bigger situation.
It is worth noting that, due to 5G base stations and other markets for lithium iron phosphate quality tolerance is higher, "cost-effective" more critical, so the upstream market also began to diverge. Industry data show that from January to May this year, lithium iron phosphate material market share of the top 5 companies has fallen from 78% in 2019 to 73% in 2020, and in May fell to below 65%. This is reflected behind the rise of the traditional non-automotive power lithium iron phosphate materials companies.
Automotive, marine and other areas of lithium iron phosphate towards the "high-end"
By the fiscal subsidies, as well as lithium iron phosphate battery technology to enhance the impact of this year, lithium iron phosphate in the passenger car market began to pick up, Tesla Model 3 launched lithium iron phosphate version, BYD's new car Han equipped with lithium iron phosphate "blade battery", in addition to BAIC EU5, SAIC Rongwei and other hot models also increased the lithium iron phosphate version.
Cost compared to ternary has a significant advantage is to promote car companies to increase the lithium iron phosphate version of an important factor. However, due to market demand, lithium iron phosphate in the field of automotive has also opened the "upward" path of technological upgrading, lithium iron phosphate in the automotive market gradually towards high-end, is expected to change the "inherent impression" of lithium iron phosphate only with low-end cars.
In terms of technology enhancement, in 2019 several domestic lithium iron phosphate giants have action. Such as Ningde Time, BYD through structural innovation, making lithium iron phosphate battery pack volume utilization and energy density have improved, on the one hand, to improve the overall battery pack charge, on the other hand, by reducing the structure of the battery pack, further reducing the cost; Lixin battery, Guoxuan High-tech is based on lithium iron phosphate material itself, and constantly breakthrough lithium iron phosphate monomer and the upper limit of the system energy density.
Whether it is structural process innovation, or from the material itself, focusing on the traditional automotive field of power battery manufacturers, are hoping to further improve the performance of lithium iron phosphate batteries through technological innovation, and thus broaden its share of the automotive market. Therefore, we believe that the future of automotive lithium iron phosphate technology will continue to "up".
Thanks to the improvement of power battery technology, as well as the cost continues to decline, in order to promote the green development of the marine sector, the trend of electrification of ships in recent years, lithium batteries began to be vigorously promoted in ships, currently inland rivers and lakes can frequently see the shadow of electric ships.
"At present, ships with lithium iron phosphate battery cells and new energy vehicles with lithium iron phosphate battery cell requirements are basically the same, but the ship lithium battery system requirements are higher, the safety, fire system requirements are higher than the electric car." A battery company believes that "the application of lithium iron phosphate on electric ships will also face more technical verification, the need for more stringent specification standards, it is foreseeable that the future of lithium iron phosphate for ships will also develop in the direction of higher performance."
In addition to electric vehicles, ships and other fields, in the field of large-scale energy storage projects, also put forward more requirements for lithium iron phosphate batteries, such as the requirement that the number of battery cycles can be done 7500 times or even 10,000 times more, to ensure that the application of energy storage batteries for as long as 20 years. The characteristics of these application scenarios are driving the differentiation of lithium iron phosphate routes.
Application scenario "differentiation" enterprise multi-line layout
In fact, despite the different application scenarios of lithium iron phosphate batteries, for its different quality requirements, giving many companies the opportunity, but the market competition is brutal, the traditional automotive power field giants are also digging to expand the market segment, using different product strategies to eat more market cake.
This year's 5G base station, the traditional power field of lithium iron phosphate companies have been actively involved, such as Ningde Time, BYD, Guoxuan High-tech, Lixin battery, lithium billion, Peng Hui Energy and other companies have participated in China Mobile, China Tower related projects bidding, and Lixin battery, lithium billion, Peng Hui Energy has achieved certain results.
Although Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan High-tech, etc. in this year, China Mobile, China Tower two large lithium iron phosphate bidding in defeat, but familiar with the play of this market, I believe they will adjust the play to return, is expected to participate in the next project, competition will also be more intense. And this situation will be extrapolated to all applications of lithium iron phosphate, whether high-end or low-end, the head of the company can rely on technology, scale, capital advantages, using different product strategies "precision strike", and the only limiting factor may be the return on this market is proportional to their investment.
