According to the latest market research, the mobile robot (AGV/AMR) market is expected to reach more than US$18 billion by 2027, and the growth rates of AGV and AMR are around 24% and 43%, respectively. The total installed capacity of AGVs and AMRs will exceed 2.4 million units in 2027, making mobile robots the new normal in people's daily operational activities.
AGV (Automated Guided Vehicle) and AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robot) Market Highlights
Although the new crown epidemic is still in the global epidemic, it has not affected the good growth of the industry, with sales expected to exceed 3 billion US dollars in 2021. Around 640,000 mobile robots (AGVs and AMRs) are expected to be shipped by 2027, with a total installed base of 2.4 million units in the market.
Between 2022-2027, AMR will grow at a CAGR of about 43%, and by 2027, AMR will become a more attractive market compared to AGV, with relatively high shipments and TAM share .
The US, Germany, UK, China and Japan will lead the market, with annual demand for mobile robots (AGVs and AMRs) exceeding 200,000 units by 2027.
Goods-to-person (G2P) and person-to-person (P2G), both types of AMRs have their own markets with some advantages and disadvantages. It depends which is the more efficient and cost-effective solution for your existing or new warehouse.
Picking and sorting mobile robots will become a new and important category, growing by 45% by 2027, especially in the micro-fulfillment segment.
China will be the hub of autonomous mobile robots, both in demand and supply, as Chinese-made AMRs are expected to boost economics by 30%-40% due to labor cost advantages and huge consumption in China itself.
After QR codes, lidar, vision cameras, and sensor fusion are key navigation technologies that will be commercialized in this field due to flexibility, safety concerns, and higher accuracy. Even multi-sensor fusion AMRs are expected to grow by 70%. There are specialized navigation technology and software companies (Autonomy Service Providers) that support mobile robot manufacturers in building such capabilities with the help of artificial intelligence and machine vision.
In addition to logistics and manufacturing, delivery, retail and cleaning are emerging target applications, and despite the relatively low absolute market size, growth of about 35% is enticing.
Main factors and challenges
Automation is a focus for the manufacturing and logistics industries and is part of the Industry 4.0 and Supply Chain 4.0 initiatives for continued growth and sustainable development. Robotics is an important aspect of this automation and could contribute more than 20% of the warehouse automation market opportunity valued at over $30 billion.
The growth of e-commerce is the main driver of AGV/AMR demand in warehouse automation. Global e-commerce sales have grown at a compound annual growth rate of 20% over the past decade, reaching approximately $4.5 trillion globally in 2021 and are expected to grow to $7.5 trillion by 2026. The share of online retail has risen from 2% of total sales to about 13%, and is expected to reach a further 22% by 2026.
Labor costs and wage rates are especially high in developed countries. The annual cost of a forklift operator can be as high as $50,000. If a forklift has to run 24 hours, then at least 3-4 drivers are required. Add the investment cost of a forklift to $10,000 plus personnel costs, and the annual cost of a forklift exceeds $200,000.
Artificial intelligence and deep learning are also at an inflection point, already disrupting multiple industries, and are sure to impact how warehouses operate today. In January 2022, Berkshire Grey launched an artificial intelligence (AI)-powered reverse logistics solution designed to help retailers accelerate the resale of returns and improve labor utilization in the returns process. The solution includes Berkshire Grey's Robotic Product Sorting and Identification (RPSi) and Robotic Shuttle to Wall (RSPW) systems.
RaaS and different leasing options are reducing upfront investment as end users do not have enough capital expenditures to do a trial run to validate ROI. There are now options like pay-per-item, pay-per-mile, pay-per-peak day, etc. to balance the customer's operating costs with RaaS costs.
Safety Challenges - Over the past 15 years, the development of AGV/AMR has created a wide range of machines and markets. Everything from AGVs/AMRs in warehouses to homes. A key divide in the AGV/AMR world is the difference in safety requirements between "service" AGV/AMR and "industrial" AGV/AMR. While the intent is that AGVs/AMRs do not harm humans, service robots operate within the human domain, and work environments may include operations in grocery stores, retail stores, malls, hospitals, sidewalks, or the home.
