In November, a total of 5.9GWh of ternary batteries were installed in my country, a year-on-year increase of 56.1%, and a month-on-month increase of 71.6%; a total of 4.7GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries were installed, a year-on-year increase of 91.4%, and a month-on-month increase of 95.5%. The installed capacity from January to November was 50.66GWh, the ternary battery decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, and the iron-lithium battery increased by 12.5% year-on-year. It can be seen that the performance of the iron-lithium battery in 2020 is better than that of the ternary battery, and it gradually accounts for the passenger car market. increase.
Strong terminal demand will increase the share of lithium iron phosphate in the future
The increase in iron-lithium batteries in the second half of the year was mainly due to the increase in supporting passenger models. It can also be seen from the recommended catalog of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that the number of new passenger models supporting iron-lithium batteries in 2020 has increased a lot compared with last year. The best-selling models BYD "Han" and Hongguang MINI are basically basic. In addition, in early October, Tesla announced its standard battery life version. Model 3 has changed from ternary batteries to lithium-ion batteries. Driven by a variety of best-selling models, the installed capacity of iron-lithium batteries reached 4.7GWh in November, an increase of 91.6% year-on-year, and the proportion of installed capacity rose from 13% in February to 44%. It is expected that it will account for 25% of pure electric passenger cars in December. From previous years, with the popularity of ternary batteries, the proportion of iron-lithium batteries in passenger cars is decreasing year by year. However, with the decline of subsidies in 2019, the low cost of iron-lithium batteries, strong safety, and improved battery technology, iron-lithium batteries have returned to the stage of the passenger car market. In 2020, new models supporting iron-lithium batteries will increase. SMM It is estimated that lithium iron phosphate batteries will account for 11% of the pure electric passenger car market in 2020. In the long run, lithium iron phosphate batteries will dominate the A0 and A00 low-end markets. There are about 800,000 non-compliant low-speed electric vehicles in China. The A00-class market can better solve the problem of the legalization of low-speed electric vehicles. It can be seen that the future A00-class market has great potential. However, because the low-end models have a low charge, only about 10KWh, the demand for lithium-ion batteries is relatively small. In addition, B and C-class models will also use iron-lithium batteries, such as BYD, Tesla, Xiaopeng Motors, etc. As overseas car company Tesla opens the precedent for supporting iron-lithium batteries, future overseas car companies Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, and other car companies will also start to use lithium-ion batteries to reduce costs and enter the Chinese market faster. According to BYD’s future plans, all new models are expected to be equipped with iron-lithium batteries, and BYD’s electric vehicles have a higher battery charge, which can further promote the increase in the installed capacity of iron-lithium batteries. In addition to passenger cars, the electric two-wheeler market is also a potential stock in the future. At present, the annual output of electric bicycles is basically more than 30 million. In 2020, the degree of lithium-ionization will continue to increase. It is expected that the annual lithium-ionization will reach 25%, and it will continue to increase to 40% next year. Due to the advantages of high safety, long cycle life, and low cost, iron-lithium batteries have gradually increased their demand in market areas such as takeaway vehicles and express vehicles. In the future, it will gradually penetrate the shared electric bicycles and the civilian market. It is expected that iron-lithium batteries will account for about 50% of the electric vehicle market next year, occupying part of the market share of ternary and lithium manganate. In the energy storage market, the construction speed of domestic 5G base stations in 2020 has exceeded expectations. As of the end of November 2020, nearly 700,000 5G base stations have been opened nationwide, and it is expected that more than 600,000 5G base stations will be built in 2020. Due to the higher frequency band used by 5G, the weaker the diffraction ability, the only way to expand the radiation range is to increase the power. Therefore, in addition to macro base stations, 5G base stations also need to add many micro base stations and adopt "macro station + small station" cooperation. Because 5G base stations have weak penetration, the total number will be 2-3 times higher than 4G base stations. It is estimated that 5.5 million 5G macro stations and 10 million 5G small stations will be built. According to the calculation of the 5GC-band single station power consumption of 4000W and the emergency duration of 3.5h, the battery demand of the new 5G base station in 2020 can reach 8.4GWh. In addition, with the increasing demand for overseas wind power and photovoltaic energy storage and the frequent occurrence of potential safety hazards in overseas ternary batteries, the demand for iron-lithium batteries in overseas energy storage markets has also increased. It is expected that the demand for domestic iron-lithium batteries in overseas energy storage markets will increase next year 4- About 5 times.
2021 lithium iron phosphate price outlook
Affected by the rise in the price of lithium carbonate, the price of lithium iron phosphate continues to rise. According to SMM research, since December, the price of lithium iron phosphate has shown an overall upward trend. As of December 31, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 38,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,000 yuan/ton from December 1. , The range is 9.35%.
Industrial carbon prices have risen relatively high, coupled with the increase in the price of iron phosphate, iron-lithium enterprises are in short supply, and at the end of the year, new energy commercial vehicles have begun to impulse, downstream demand is better, and the demand for small power and overseas energy storage markets continues to increase. , The price of lithium iron phosphate still has room to rise.
In 2020, the price of iron-lithium fluctuates near the cost price for a long time. In the first half of the year, the demand for the terminal power market has weakened. The iron-lithium basically relies on energy storage orders. The market competition is fierce, and battery factories lower costs and lower prices. In addition, the price of lithium carbonate is in the downward range in the first half of 2020, and the price of iron and lithium has plummeted.
In the fourth quarter, the price of lithium carbonate increased by nearly 13,000 yuan/ton. In addition, the cost of iron phosphate increased due to seasonal reasons, and the pressure on the cost of iron and lithium increased. Considering that the profit margin of iron and lithium plants is small, iron and lithium companies have adjusted their prices one after another. Because downstream battery companies are less willing to increase prices of raw materials, the transmission of price increases to the downstream is slower. The price of iron and lithium basically increased in mid-to-late November and mid-December. This week, due to the excessive increase in the price of lithium carbonate, iron-lithium companies are more difficult to withstand cost pressures. They have raised their prices in advance on the 30th, and the prices have risen by 3,000-4,000 yuan/ton.
Considering that the high terminal demand and the tight supply in 2021 will lead to an increase in the price of lithium carbonate. In addition, the oversupply of lithium iron phosphate will improve next year, and the market demand for power, energy storage, and small power will increase significantly. SMM predicts that the price of lithium iron phosphate will continue to grow, The increase rate of transmission or increase.
At present, new energy vehicles are the general trend of the global auto market. Since the second half of 2020, more and more pure electric passenger vehicles are equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries. SMM predicts that iron-lithium batteries will account for 40%-45% of new energy vehicles in 2021. . How much will iron-lithium replacement ternary batteries affect the demand for cobalt and lithium in China's power market in the future?
