In 2021, my country's power battery output will reach 219.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 163.4%. Among them, the output of ternary batteries reached 93.9 GWh, accounting for 42.7% of the total output, a year-on-year increase of 93.6%; the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 125.4 GWh, accounting for 57.1% of the total output, a year-on-year increase of 262.9%. This shows that lithium iron phosphate batteries have occupied more than half of the power battery market share after the rapid growth last year. So, will the output gap between ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries be further widened this year?
Rising raw material prices have a greater impact on ternary batteries
It is understood that 2021 is the first year in which the production, sales and vehicle loading of lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeds that of ternary batteries. Statistics recently released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance show that from January to February this year, my country's power battery output reached 61.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 185.7%. Among them, the output of ternary batteries reached 22.5 GWh, accounting for 36.6% of the total output, a year-on-year increase of 87.6%; the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 38.8 GWh, accounting for 63.2% of the total output, a year-on-year increase of 308.2%. Compared with last year, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery production has further increased.
Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Technology, believes that this has a certain relationship with the increase in the price of battery raw materials. "Lithium iron phosphate battery is less affected by the increase in the price of cathode raw materials, only the price of lithium carbonate has increased, while the ternary battery is different. , the prices of nickel and cobalt have risen sharply, so the cost increase exceeds that of lithium iron phosphate batteries."
Deng Wei, a researcher at Zheshang Securities, also told reporters: "The single-ton consumption of lithium carbonate for lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries is 588 tons/GWh and 650 tons/GWh, respectively, and the price of lithium carbonate increases by 10,000 tons per ton. RMB/ton, the cost of lithium iron phosphate battery will increase by 5.875 yuan/kWh, and the cost of ternary battery will increase by 6.5 yuan/kWh. In absolute terms, the cost of lithium iron phosphate battery kWh increases less than that of ternary battery. "
In addition, Zhang Xiang also said that the continuity of the ternary battery industry is doubtful. "The cobalt resources of the ternary battery cathode material are limited. According to the current situation, by 2025, the cobalt resources on the earth may be exhausted."
Ternary battery no longer enjoys the advantage of long battery life
"It doesn't make sense for an electric car to have a long range." Tesla founder Musk's remarks recently sparked heated discussions in the industry. In fact, many people in the industry also believe that the current driving needs of consumers are basically limited to commuting, and the current cruising range of electric vehicles can already meet the travel needs of consumers. At the same time, the configuration of larger and heavier power batteries to meet the needs of a very small number of long cruising ranges not only increases the cost significantly, but also makes it difficult to guarantee safety. In addition, the charging network continues to improve, so that the advantages of ultra-long battery life of ternary batteries are no longer available. It is the goal pursued by the market.
At the same time, the frequent occurrence of spontaneous combustion accidents in electric vehicles has led to the concern of the safety of power batteries. Lishen battery insiders said that in order to produce power batteries with higher specific energy, the company chose the ternary battery technology route, "However, considering safety issues, no OEMs are willing to install vehicles, and batteries are currently only used in unmanned vehicles. on board."
On March 15, BYD publicly stated that the company's pure electric models have been fully equipped with blade batteries, which can be charged and discharged more than 3,000 times. It is understood that the blade battery was released on March 29, 2020. Compared with the 40% space utilization rate of the traditional battery pack, the space utilization rate of the battery is more than 60%, which greatly improves the vehicle cruising range. It can be seen that the advantage of high specific energy of ternary battery is being lost.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries are gaining favor
In recent years, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually become the main choice for car companies. For example, global sales champion Tesla announced last year that it would use lithium iron phosphate batteries in its standard battery life models. Domestic sales champion BYD will cover lithium iron phosphate batteries. to all pure electric vehicles. At the same time, the capacity expansion of lithium iron phosphate batteries is progressing steadily. In 2021, Guoxuan Hi-Tech ranked third in the lithium iron phosphate battery market, and a relevant person from the company told reporters: "According to the company's latest plan, the battery production capacity will increase from 50 GWh in 2021 to 300 GW in the next five years. At the time, lithium iron phosphate was the main technical route, accounting for a large proportion.”
Deng Wei also introduced: "Last year, many chemical companies entered the lithium iron phosphate battery cathode industry chain, and the monomer production expansion plans are more than 100,000 tons. It is expected that by the end of this year or next year, the production capacity will be released one after another."
"At present, it seems that the market share of ternary batteries is difficult to exceed that of lithium iron phosphate batteries." Zhang Xiang said.
However, Deng Wei believes that the high nickel and cobalt-free route battery industry chain has been laid out for many years, and the volume is imminent. In the future, the development of ternary batteries may turn around. "The positive electrode industry chain of ternary batteries, battery factories, car companies, etc. have been seeking alternatives to cobalt. It has been developed and tested for many years in the direction of high nickel, low cobalt and even cobalt-free with higher specific capacity. At the same time, Ningde Times, Rongbai Technology, Huayou Cobalt Industry, GEM, Guanghua Technology and other lithium battery and material companies have long been in the field of lithium battery material recycling. layout, and the recycling economy of ternary batteries is higher than that of lithium iron phosphate." With the scale effect formed by the integrated layout of ternary battery-related enterprises, and the further improvement of the waste battery recycling industry chain, the cost price of high-nickel ternary batteries is expected to be higher than that of lithium iron phosphate. Lithium iron phosphate batteries were flat.
