Global looting
On October 22, 2021, the Global Mineral Resources Strategic Research Center of China Geological Survey released the "Global Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel, Tin, and Potash Mineral Resources Reserve Evaluation Report (2021)". According to data, as of 2020, the global reserves of lithium (lithium carbonate) are 128 million tons and the resources are 349 million tons, mainly distributed in Chile, Australia, Argentina, Bolivia and other countries. Cobalt reserves are 6.68 million tons and resources are 23.44 million tons. Congo (DRC), Indonesia, Australia and other countries are the most abundant. The reserves of nickel ore are 90.63 million tons and the resources are 260 million tons. Indonesia ranks first in the world in reserves, and countries such as Australia and Russia are rich in resources. From the consumption side, in 2020, the global consumption of lithium (lithium carbonate) is about 400,000 tons, cobalt is about 170,000 tons, and nickel is about 2.4 million tons, an increase of 6.2%, 15.3% and 7.3% respectively year-on-year.
In 2021, the demand for clean energy and strategic emerging minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel will increase sharply. Under the situation of “the one mine is hard to find”, prices have soared collectively, and the global mineral resources battle will become fierce again: In December, Australia’s main lithium mining company Pilbara sharply Lower the forecast of lithium ore shipments, and lower the forecast of spodumene shipments for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2021 to 380,000-440,000 tons. The company will conduct three auctions of spodumene concentrate in 2021, the highest The price reached US$2,350/ton (FOB, 5.5% grade), far exceeding the high price of lithium mines around 2016; in November, the Chinese Embassy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo issued a notice stating that The three provinces of Kivu and South Kivu are security high-risk areas. Recently, there have been many vicious cases of armed robbery and kidnapping involving Chinese citizens. Earlier that month, the "New York Times" published an article stating that 15 of the 19 existing cobalt mines in the Congo (DRC) are operated or funded by Chinese companies; in October, French New Caledonia Prony Resources, a sub-mining company, announced that it has reached a multi-year nickel supply agreement with Tesla, which will purchase more than 42,000 tons of nickel.
Comment on this website: In 2021, it can be clearly felt that the profit distribution of the battery industry chain is tilted towards upstream raw materials, and the price increase of many materials has exceeded expectations. Many institutions predict that pressure on the raw material side will continue to increase, and the supply and demand of mineral resources with high demand in the battery field will remain tight in 2022, and prices may remain high or even hit new highs.
Giant turned
Behind the tight supply of lithium, cobalt, and nickel, the unexpected growth of the downstream demand market is the main reason. Recently, Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of the Yiwei Economic Research Institute/Dean of the China Battery Industry Research Institute, predicted that the global production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 22.4 million and 47.81 million in 2025 and 2030, respectively. In 2025, the global demand for power batteries will reach 1268.4GWh, plus small batteries and energy storage batteries, the total shipment will reach 1615GWh; in 2030, the global demand for power batteries will reach 3083.5GWh, plus small batteries and energy storage batteries, The total shipment volume will reach 3927GWh.
In 2021, domestic and foreign auto companies have announced to increase investment in the field of new energy vehicles and batteries, and expand the choice of "carbon neutral vehicles": Great Wall Motors will invest 100 billion yuan in R&D in the next five years, focusing on new energy and intelligence. Research and development in two major areas; Volkswagen plans to invest 89 billion euros in the research and development of electric vehicles and digitalization; Toyota will invest 4 trillion yen in the development of electric vehicles by 2030, increasing the amount of new battery investment to 2 trillion days Yuan; Nissan plans to invest 2 trillion yen in the next 5 years to accelerate the promotion of electric drive product layout and technological innovation... In addition, according to analysis data released by Reuters, global automakers plan to invest in the next 5 to 10 years Approximately 515 billion U.S. dollars to develop and manufacture new electric vehicles and eliminate internal combustion engine vehicles.
At the same time, under the high market boom, more and more traditional energy giants have started the "elephant turn" and intensively entered the new energy and new materials subdivision track: Exxon Mobil, Shell, BP, Duke Energy , Total, BASF, Dow Chemical, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Yankuang Energy, Yongtai Energy, Power Investment Energy, Shandong Energy Group, Hubei Yihua, Guizhou Phosphorus and other traditional fossil energy and chemical giants at home and abroad are accelerating Layout of wind and solar power generation, charging and swapping power stations, hydrogen energy, battery materials and other fields.
Comment on this website: Keeping the same frequency with the times and trending in the same direction, often get twice the result with half the effort. Under the "dual carbon" strategic goal, the transformation of the energy structure is accelerating, and traditional energy giants are pressing the "decarbonization" accelerator key.
Global core pain
In 2021, many car companies such as General Motors, Toyota, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover, Renault, etc. will be forced to temporarily suspend or reduce production due to chip shortages. According to data released by AutoForecast Solutions, as of December 19, 2021, due to the shortage of chips, the global auto market has reduced production by 10.272 million units. Among them, the cumulative reduction in China's auto market has reached 1.982 million units, accounting for 19.3 of the total reduction in production. %. AFS expects to reduce production of 11.309 million vehicles throughout 2021.
It is worth noting that under the tide of core shortage, in addition to BYD, automakers such as SAIC, Geely, Great Wall, Xiaopeng, and Leapfrog have also begun to seek self-production and self-research of chips, and chip allocation is inclined to new energy models and high-profit models. Normally, some new cars from Mercedes-Benz, General Motors, BMW, Kay Tesla, Ideal, Xiaopeng and other auto companies have chosen to temporarily “reduced” the delivery.
Comment on this website: Despite the "core pain", the determination of car companies to transform to intelligence is still firm, and chip companies have gradually shifted their research and development focus to the direction of intelligence and electrification of new energy vehicles. In 2021, the areas of autonomous driving and chips will attract a lot of money. For example, Momenta completed approximately 6.4 billion yuan in C round of financing; Waymo completed 2.5 billion US dollars in financing; Horizon completed 1.5 billion US dollars in C7 round financing; SenseTime's Hong Kong stock listing raised a total of 5.775 billion Hong Kong dollars and so on.
China leads
In the field of new energy vehicles, China continues to lead the world, and the number of new energy vehicles has long occupied half of the global new energy vehicle market. Counting 2021, it will rank first in the world in sales of new energy vehicles for seven consecutive years. At the same time, in the Top 20 global auto companies by market value, Chinese auto companies have also occupied more than 6 seats for a long time.
On December 16, 2021, BMW held the 2022 "Welcome the New Year Online Annual Meeting", describing the company’s strategic upgrade in China with the perceptual theme of "Home in China": Keep the corporate strategy in line with China’s development goals, and adhere to " The principle of "China First" gives priority to the needs of the Chinese market in the development of new products, and continuously strengthens the co-creation and win-win situation with Chinese partners. Looking forward to 2025, the BMW Group will accelerate the advancement of electrification, digitalization and sustainable development in China, and keep pace with China.
In the field of power batteries, according to data released by South Korean market research organization SNE Research, from January to November 2021, CATL ranked first with a market share of 31.8%, which is higher than the second place LG New Energy (with a market share of 20.5%). ) 10 percentage points higher. Panasonic, BYD, and SK On ranked third to fifth with 12.5%, 9%, and 5.8% market share respectively. Ranked 6th to 10th are Samsung SDI, China Innovation Airlines, Guoxuan High-tech, AESC, and Yiwei Lithium Energy. Among them, compared with the same period in 2020, five of the six Chinese companies have achieved three-digit growth, while Japanese and Korean companies have a clear downward trend. Taking into account the cumulative gap in the installed capacity of enterprises, the leading position of Chinese enterprises will be stable for the whole year of 2021.
Comment on this website: With the continuous deepening of reform and opening up, the demand potential of the Chinese market, a sound industrial chain layout, a strong and resilient economic environment, and a solid and effective epidemic prevention and control have strengthened the multinational companies’ ability to continuously increase their localization in China. Confidence, we believe that there will be more and more "BMW" "home in China".
Huge sums of money recalled
In 2021, GM will recall 140,000 Chevrolet Bolt EVs in batches due to battery safety hazards. The cost of the recall is about 2 billion U.S. dollars. Its battery supplier LG agreed to pay GM up to 1.9 billion U.S. dollars; due to the risk of fire, Hyundai has recalled about 8.2 globally. The cost of this recall of 10,000 electric vehicles to replace the battery system is 1.4 trillion won. Hyundai Motor and LG have respectively assumed 30% and 70%.
Not only GM and Hyundai, but in 2021, many new energy car companies announced the recall: At the end of December, Tesla recalled nearly 200,000 electric vehicles in China and 475,000 in the United States; in December, BMW Brilliance 1974 domestic iX3 electric vehicles were recalled; in August, Shanxi successfully recalled 5,900 pure electric trucks; in July, Porsche recalled 43,000 pure electric cars Taycan worldwide; in June, Cheetah Automobile announced the recall of 4117 CS9 pure electric vehicles... Among them, in the Chinese market, data from the Defective Product Management Center of the State Administration for Market Regulation shows that as of the end of June 2021, my country has recalled a total of 1,283,800 new energy defective vehicles, accounting for 22.13% of the total number of new energy vehicles at that time.
In addition to the power battery field, energy storage batteries also have huge recalls. At the end of May 2021, LG New Energy stated that in order to avoid potential fire hazards, it recalled ESS batteries produced at the Nanjing plant in China from April 2017 to September 2018 at an estimated cost of approximately 400 billion won. Prior to this, LG New Energy had also recalled ESS in the United States and Australia.
Comment on this website: As the country with the highest number of new energy vehicles in the world, the number of vehicles in China has exceeded 300 million, while the number of new energy vehicles has not exceeded 10 million. To reach the number of 300 million vehicles, it is estimated that it will take another 20 Years, even longer. However, the current car recalls have become normal, and with the increase in market penetration, the recall of new energy vehicles will also become normal. The recall is a double-edged sword. The current public opinion is relatively negative, but the recall is also a manifestation of the company's fulfillment of social responsibility, and it can also force the company to improve product quality and safety performance.
Market value take off
In 2021, the capital market is enthusiastic about the new energy vehicle track, and the high market capitalization and high growth of listed companies in the related industry chain will appear.
On May 31, the share price of domestic power battery Ningde Times hit a record high of 429 yuan per share during the intraday trading. The total market value exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time. It became the first trillion-dollar market capitalization company on the Growth Enterprise Market and once exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan. Became the second-ranked listed company in A stock market value. As of the close on December 31, 2021, the total market value of CATL has reached 1.37 trillion yuan, ranking fourth in the A-share market; in addition to CATL, BYD, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Enjie, Ganfeng Lithium, The conceptual stock market value of many lithium batteries such as Salt Lake Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, Pioneer Intelligence, Putailai, and Tianci Materials have also exceeded 100 billion yuan.
On October 25th, Tesla closed up 12.66% in US stocks to close at $1024.8600, and its market value exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, reaching $10267 billion.
On November 10, Rivian landed on Nasdaq, raised US$12 billion in IPO, and its market value soared to US$152 billion on November 16, surpassing Volkswagen and becoming the world’s third-largest car by market value after Tesla and Toyota. Enterprise. At present, although the market value of Rivian has fallen significantly, it is still maintaining the top 5 industry in the market value of global car companies, ranking ahead of traditional car companies such as GM, Daimler, Ford, BMW, and Ferrari.
Comment on this website: The battery network inquired about the relevant data of Oriental Wealth and found that the A-share battery and new energy related sectors will collectively become popular in 2021. As of the close of December 31, 2021, the new energy vehicle sector has increased by 43.75% during the year, and the charging pile sector has increased during the year. The increase reached 43.63%, the automotive chip sector increased 35.48% during the year, the driverless sector increased 32.46% during the year, the lithium battery sector increased by 76.38% during the year, the salt lake lithium extraction sector increased by 75.47% during the year, and the sodium ion battery sector increased by 75.47% during the year. 67.36%, the solid-state battery sector rose by 71.19% during the year, the hydrogen energy sector rose by 68.6% during the year, and the energy storage sector rose by 79.67% during the year. Judging from the research reports issued by major securities firms, in 2022, the battery new energy track will continue to be a high-growth track that is widely optimistic about the capital market.
Green light up
A few days ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the "2021 Renewable Energy Market" report predicting that in 2021, the global total installed capacity of wind power, photovoltaics and other renewable energy power generation will exceed 290 million kilowatts, refreshing for the second consecutive year. The highest record in history. IEA predicts that in the next five years, the growth of global renewable energy installed capacity will further accelerate. By 2026, the total global installed capacity of renewable energy power will increase by more than 60% on the basis of 2020, reaching 4.8 billion kilowatts, which is equivalent to the total installed capacity of global fossil fuel power generation and nuclear power. China will be the most dazzling country among them. IEA predicts that by 2026, China's total installed wind power and photovoltaic capacity is expected to exceed 1.2 billion kilowatts, which will also reach China's wind and solar installation targets four years in advance.
According to data released by the National Energy Administration, in 2021, the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation nationwide will historically exceed 1 billion kilowatts, and the installed capacity of hydropower and wind power will exceed 300 million kilowatts. The installed capacity of offshore wind power ranks first in the world. The volume exceeded the 1 trillion kilowatt-hour mark for the first time, and continued to maintain its lead.
Comment on this website: In 2021, low-carbon set sail, green power is on: The European Union released the latest low-carbon development policy "Fit for 55", China launched a pilot green power trading, and the United States has also accelerated its carbon neutrality. As the world moves towards low-carbonization, the carbon footprint of the battery's full life cycle is required. Whether to have green power has become an important consideration in the site selection of new projects.
Recycling the wind
In 2021, battery recycling and cascading utilization will take off again, and favorable policies will be introduced one after another. The speed of the layout of related industry chain companies will also attract more and more companies to enter this field.
In the international market, the Volkswagen Group’s component division’s battery recycling pilot plant in Salzgitter has been put into operation in early 2021; Nissan plans to build new battery recycling plants in the United States and Europe before the end of fiscal year 2025; Battery Resourcers Announced a lithium-ion battery recycling agreement with Honda Motor; SKI plans to start a battery recycling program in 2022 and is expected to recycle 30GWh of batteries in 2025; LG New Energy and Eco Pro Group are beginning to commercialize electric vehicle battery recycling business, The two parties plan to recycle more than 40% of the 15,000 tons of waste batteries as the core material of the battery; BASF plans to build a new battery recycling test device at its Schwarzheide cathode active material (CAM) production base in Germany, and plans to start operation in early 2023 Installation; Northvolt announced that it will increase the annual recycling capacity of the Revolt Ett recycling plant in Sweden to 125,000 tons of batteries...
In the domestic market, Guanghua Technology announced that it plans to invest 454 million yuan to build efficient and comprehensive utilization of waste lithium batteries in the existing plant area.
Cum high-performance battery material expansion project; GEM plans to invest 1.8 billion yuan to build a new energy material project and a circular economy industry project with supporting raw materials. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, it also plans to deploy a power battery recycling plant in Europe; a total investment of 12 billion Feidongguo The Xuan battery material base has started, and the construction content covers the front-end raw materials and back-end battery recycling and echelon utilization of lithium-ion power batteries; Tianqi intends to invest 5 billion yuan in the next 5 years to build an annual output of 3 10,000 tons of ternary precursors and 12,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate production projects; Tinci Materials plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary to invest in the construction of 100,000 tons of iron-lithium battery recycling projects; Ningde Times invests 32 billion yuan to build Bangpu integrated battery materials Industrial Park Project... In addition, in 2021, three batches of the list of companies that meet the "Industry Standards and Conditions for the Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles" have been released, and the number of "regular forces" in the comprehensive utilization of waste power batteries for new energy vehicles will be expanded to 47.
Comment on this website: The scale of 100 billion power battery recycling is waiting to start, and the wind has come! At present, the “decommissioning tide” of power batteries, especially the “decommissioning tide” of ternary lithium batteries with higher recycling profits, has not really come. The theoretical recyclable volume and the actual recyclable volume are very different, and relevant policy support and supervision Efforts need to be strengthened, corporate profit models are not yet clear, and market chaos continues. However, there is no doubt about the market prospects of power battery recycling. With the help of policies, capital, resources and other forces, industry chain companies have a higher enthusiasm for investment and layout, and cooperation between upstream and downstream companies in the recycling field is further deepening. It is foreseeable that with the continuous expansion of scale, the improvement of the recycling system, and the strengthening of policy supervision, the battery recycling market will gradually move towards a healthy development track.
Innovation first
On December 28, 2021, eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for Intelligent Manufacturing Development". The plan pointed out that a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation in the world will develop in depth, and new technologies will continue to make breakthroughs and The accelerated integration of advanced manufacturing technologies provides historical opportunities for the high-end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry.
In various top-level designs of the government, "innovation" has become a high-frequency word. At the same time, the enterprise level is also accelerating the research and development and industrial application of advanced technologies.
In the past year, many car and battery companies at home and abroad have announced that they will be investing heavily in technological innovation and research and development: Northvolt and Volvo announced that they will establish a joint battery research and development center in Gothenburg, Sweden; Volkswagen invested 70 million euros to establish a new battery research and development center. Audi also announced that it will establish a high-performance battery research and development center at the Neckars-Ulm plant in Baden-Württemberg; Ford established a new global battery innovation center Ford Ion Park, and spent US$185 million to build a cooperative learning experiment in Southeast Michigan Office; SK On has set up a next-generation battery research and development center and plans to build a test production line; Ningde Times plans to invest 7 billion yuan in the new energy advanced technology research and application projects of Ningde Times in the latest 45 billion yuan fixed increase plan; Honeycomb Energy has More than 5 billion yuan has been invested in research and development, and 25.2 billion yuan will be invested in the next 5 years...
Comment on this website: For a long time, in interviews and questions in the media, many companies have been asked questions such as "how big is the gap between domestic and foreign technology in terms of technology", "how many years will it take for China to catch up with Japan and South Korea" and so on. In 2021, faced with similar questions, we often hear confident answers: “In the field of battery new energy, China has already taken the lead!” With the widespread application of green and low-carbon technologies, the innovation system and innovation capabilities have risen sharply. The battery new energy industry is moving towards the middle and high end of the global value chain.
Energy storage run
In 2021, the global energy storage industry will begin to enter a period of accelerated development. On October 18th, Huawei Digital Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Shandong Electric Power Construction Third Engineering Co., Ltd. successfully signed the Saudi Red Sea New City Energy Storage Project. The energy storage scale of the project reaches 1,300MWh. It is by far the world's largest energy storage project. The largest off-grid energy storage project.
According to the forecast data released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the global energy storage market will grow at a compound annual rate of 33% before 2030, and the cumulative installed capacity will reach 358GW/1028GWh in 2030, which is 20 times the scale of 17GW/34GWh at the end of 2020. The above, and will attract 262 billion US dollars of investment between 2021 and 2030.
The prediction of Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of Ivey Economic Research Institute/Dean of China Battery Industry Research Institute, is more optimistic: the cumulative installed capacity of global electrochemical energy storage power stations will reach 150GW in 2025 and 550GW by 2030.
Comment on this website: The two overseas energy crises in 2021-the Texas power crisis in the United States and the European natural gas crisis, as well as the power cuts in many places in China, have sounded a wake-up call for the energy transition: promoting the transition from traditional energy to clean energy The long-term process must be gradual and avoid one size fits all. At the same time, in this process, in order to ensure the safe and stable operation of clean energy, the energy storage industry is bound to enter a new era of large-scale, high-growth development.
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