At the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum held on March 25-27, CATL revealed two major developments. Its chief scientist Wu Kai said at the meeting that CATL will release the "Kirin battery" in April this year, and its system weight, energy density and volumetric energy density will continue to lead the industry's highest level; in addition, CATL's battery life of 1,000km has a higher specific energy. The heat-free diffusion technology will be mass-produced in 2023.
Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, shared important predictions at the forum. He predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 28% in the first half of March this year, and by the end of this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach 35%.
Regarding the rising price of raw materials for new energy vehicles, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the forum that the current sharp rise in the price of raw materials for power batteries requires great attention and careful study and resolution.
Under the influence of the upward pressure on the price of upstream raw materials, combined with the decline of subsidies, since 2022, price increases have almost become one of the hottest topics in the electric vehicle industry, and the whole industry has set off a frenzy of price increases.
Trillion "Ning Wang" released a heavy signal
From March 25th to 27th, the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum (2022) was held in Beijing. New energy giants such as CATL, BYD, and Panasonic all released heavy signals, arousing market attention.
Among them, the Ningde era revealed two major developments. Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said at the meeting that CATL has launched the third-generation CTP technology through continuous technological iteration, which is internally called "Kirin battery". Its system weight, energy density and volumetric energy density continue to lead the industry's highest level. . Under the same chemical system and the same battery pack size, the power of the Kirin battery pack can be increased by 13% compared to the 4680 system.
Ten trillion racetracks are boiling,
Wu Kai further revealed that the "Kirin battery" of CATL will be officially released in April this year.
It should be pointed out that the 4680 battery is a new type of power battery with a larger size. In September 2020, Tesla announced the 4680 battery technology for the first time. According to official data, its energy density reached 300kWh/kg, 4680 cells The energy of the single unit is increased by 5 times, the cruising range of the whole vehicle is increased by 16%, the output power is increased by 6 times, and the cost is reduced by 14%.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has bluntly said that the battery is a "huge breakthrough" in technology that will make it possible for his company to produce electric cars priced at $25,000. In early March this year, it was reported that Panasonic plans to build a power battery factory in the United States, which may produce 4680 batteries for Tesla.
At the forum, Yuki Kusami, president of Panasonic, said that 4680 batteries will become the mainstream of cylindrical batteries in the future. The 4680 battery is a "double innovation" in battery structure and material: it adopts a large cylindrical structure, and its capacity is 5 times higher than that of the 2170 battery.
In contrast, the energy density and cruising range of the "Kirin battery" to be released by CATL is higher than that of the 4680 battery, which is undoubtedly a major breakthrough for the new energy vehicle track.
At the same time, at the meeting on March 26, Wu Kai also threw out a major news. He said that in September 2020, Ningde era took the lead in realizing heat-free diffusion on 811 products, and there are some car companies and battery companies one after another. All have launched their own heat-free diffusion technology, and the current heat-free diffusion technology has become the mainstream of the industry. The Ningde era's heat-free diffusion technology with a cruising range of 1,000km and higher specific energy will be mass-produced in 2023.
The super battery and super battery life heat-free diffusion technology introduced by CATL has undoubtedly aroused the market's expectations for the follow-up of new energy. Some analysts pointed out that battery life and safety have always been the key to restricting the popularization of electric vehicles. With breakthroughs, the penetration of new energy vehicles will continue to increase.
Wang Chuanfu: The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 35% this year
At the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, BYD Chairman and President Wang Chuanfu also shared important predictions on the development of new energy vehicles. It is estimated that in the first half of March this year, the penetration rate of new energy in China has exceeded 28%, and it is estimated that the penetration rate of the whole month will also exceed 28%. The penetration rate of new energy in my country increased from 6% in January last year to 22% in December, an average increase of 1.3 percentage points per month. According to the speed of industry change last year, it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country will reach 35% by the end of this year.
At the same time, Wang Chuanfu further emphasized that the current market driving of new energy vehicles accounts for 70%, and the policy driving is only 30%. The growth of new energy vehicles in 2021 will be different from three years ago. At that time, online car-hailing and taxis accounted for a large proportion. However, in 2021, the proportion of private cars will be as high as 88%. It is the people who use practical actions to support the purchase of new energy vehicles.
Wang Chuanfu expressed a different view on the power battery energy density hotly discussed in the forum. He believes that when the cruising range crosses a certain threshold, the importance of power battery energy density decreases, and the most important indicator may become safety, Cost and cycle life, the current surge in battery raw material prices are challenges that the industry needs to overcome.
Wang Chuanfu's concerns are obviously closely related to the continuous rise in the price of upstream materials for lithium batteries. After the continuous surge in 2021, the price of lithium carbonate in 2022 is still soaring. According to the specific data, since the beginning of July last year, lithium carbonate has increased by about 500%, lithium hydroxide has increased by about 400%, ternary materials have increased by about 130%, lithium iron phosphate materials have increased by about 220%, electrolyte has increased by about 40%, and the negative electrode has increased by about 40%. Materials and diaphragm prices also increased slightly.
Ten trillion racetracks are boiling,
Affected by the continuous impact of upstream material costs, the sales price of battery cells has increased by 50%-60% since the middle of last year, and the comprehensive cost of battery cells has increased by more than 65%. At present, lithium battery companies are still facing certain cost pressures, and there is a possibility of further price increases in the future.
Regarding the issue of rising raw material prices, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the meeting that the current sharp rise in the price of raw materials for power batteries requires great attention and careful study and resolution. Xin Guobin mentioned that we will moderately speed up the development of domestic resources, resolutely crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and speculation, and guide upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain to strengthen cooperation, achieve win-win development, and promote the return of key raw material prices to rationality.
Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Association of 100, said at the meeting that the balance between supply and demand of lithium resources may return to normal after 2-3 years, but considering the deterioration of the global trade environment, and the nickel brought about by the Russian-Ukrainian war Price speculation, in order to deal with supply security, government departments should introduce relevant policies and take effective measures to crack down on hoarding and curb short-term large fluctuations, otherwise it will have a major impact on the development of electric vehicles.
