According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.125 million units and 1.206 million units respectively in the first half of this year, with a year-on-year increase of 200%. Behind the hot market, a discussion on "battery shortage" is quietly rising in the industry.
Recently, the Bank of America released a report showing that according to model projections, the power battery supply may be "sold out" in 2025-2026, and the "battery shortage" may further intensify in 2026-2030.
Is the battery shortage real? Who is the driving force behind it? What is the subsequent trend of battery supply?
The so-called "battery shortage" is actually a high-end capacity shortage under the imbalance between supply and demand. With technological progress, standardization and effective capacity release, the current structural shortage is expected to ease, and in the context of car companies continue to seek supply chain security, second-tier battery manufacturers are expected to usher in new development opportunities.
In fact, the phenomenon of battery shortage is not something new, since last year, this situation has emerged. Power battery manufacturers have uneven capacity utilization, insufficient high-quality capacity, low-end excess capacity, and currently more of a structural capacity shortage.
At present, the vehicle manufacturers are in the critical period of branding, will certainly first cooperate with the head of high-quality battery factory, and due to the rapid change in battery routes, other battery factories of high-end capacity did not keep up, only to highlight the short-term supply and demand mismatch.
According to calculations, the current manufacturers providing high-end power batteries, the effective capacity of 300GWh, while China's expected installed capacity this year is about more than 200GWh.
On the surface, the capacity gap is not large, but the actual situation is that most of the battery lines have customized features, a carrot a pit, if the sales of supporting models do not meet expectations, and the production line can not be used for other models, the capacity can not be fully developed, resulting in idle.
At present, there is a polarization of battery supply, "battery shortage" situation can not be regarded as a universal phenomenon. "In fact, high-quality customers like Tesla, Volkswagen and BMW are favored by battery factories, and their battery supply will be guaranteed on a priority basis; in contrast, car manufacturers with less than ideal sales have less control over the upstream, and may be affected in the battery supply chain.
The topic of "battery shortage" is suddenly hotly debated, and many of the reasons are still from the explosion of the new energy vehicle market.
