Here you need to do a simple science, first of all, lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries are similar in cost, the former cycle life is slightly higher than the latter. The difference is that lithium iron phosphate is safer than ternary lithium batteries, but the range is much different.
Continue to look at lithium iron phosphate, some time ago, has been the large-scale use of ternary lithium batteries Tesla announced that they are switching to lithium iron phosphate for all standard range versions of electric vehicles worldwide. Here is a key word, that is, "standard range version", since the lithium iron phosphate battery can meet the standard range requirements, then screw a security wire is naturally better.
Look at ternary lithium batteries, although the capacity density makes its range is really high, but the stability is poor, resulting in ternary lithium batteries are more "sensitive", such as high temperature environment spontaneous combustion rate is higher than lithium iron phosphate. Then think differently, we all know that the lithium battery low temperature will be "afraid of cold", the ternary lithium battery low temperature performance advantages come to the fore. Since the safety of the low-temperature environment is also good, and better range, will also give rise to a considerable market space.
So now look at who is the future of new energy vehicles, this is actually a different scenario of the demand problem.
Will the power exchange model drive the popularity of new energy vehicles?
At the moment, it is very likely. Let's go back to the first question, any innovation starts from solving the pain point, then the current four major problems of new energy vehicles: range (charging time), safety, value retention, cost performance, the power exchange mode will be optimized or solved to a certain extent.
Solve the charging problem needless to say, security, the replacement mode will undoubtedly optimize the new energy car insurance rip-off the most battery. Value retention, the cost of buying a new car battery depreciation will certainly be diluted, now the cost of depreciation is often paid for by one owner, but after the popularity of the power exchange model, the cost of depreciation will be reflected in the form of partial lease payments, all new energy owners will share the bill equally.
Finally the cost performance issue, technology to speed up the speed of car function iteration, resulting in a decline in the retention rate, but this is very difficult to avoid even for oil cars. But the price of the car has dropped significantly, and the battery is no longer a "hot potato", which will certainly help pull the new energy cars in the hearts of many people's expectations of cost performance.
If the power exchange mode can overcome the subsequent difficulties of rapid scale, this will become an important driving force for the significant popularity of new energy vehicles.
What is the biggest factor that currently restricts the range of new energy vehicles?
The biggest factor limiting battery range, which actually sounds very simple, is the lack of battery energy density. To put it another way, there are two solutions that sound feasible: open source and cost cutting.
Open source, is to add batteries. The current market mainstream lithium battery new energy vehicles, battery weight generally accounts for about 30% of the total weight of the vehicle. If simply by adding batteries to lengthen the range is obviously not feasible, adding batteries can only make more power to burden the weight of the vehicle, resulting in a waste of costs in all areas, but also ineffective.
Then throttling can be solved? Xiaopeng car announced the other day, their own sixth generation of flying cars will be mass production in 2024, this idea, one way to solve the range is through lightweight design, so that the final weight is only 50% of Xiaopeng P7. So what lightweight materials are used? What about the safety and cost of this material? This is something that needs to be considered, and the increased range through weight reduction is also limited.
So for now, the most rooted solution is to improve the battery energy density, however, on this subject, currently still in the laboratory. Therefore, to solve the contradiction between weight and energy storage, battery technology needs a qualitative leap, which takes how long, it is difficult to say.
How much range does an electric car need to have in order to relieve owners' mileage anxiety?
Some years ago, new energy vehicles are not said to be popular, even if the nature of the play ticket before buying a car, will also put the mileage problem in the first place.
But according to the data published by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to August this year, the market penetration rate of new energy passenger cars in China were: 8.41%, 9.17%, 11.31%, 11.33%, 12.39%, 15.36%, 16.51%, 19.78%, an increase of ten percent in eight months.
New energy vehicles can have such a crazy increase, in fact, a large part of the reason is that the range of the vehicle has now reached a level that can basically satisfy people.
Take Tesla's Model 3 high performance version as an example, now the ideal range under CLTC comprehensive conditions can reach up to 675km, although the actual use of this parameter will be very false, and fuel cars still have a certain gap between the single refueling mileage, but a single charge to run about 400km has been fully achievable.
Therefore, the electric car range anxiety is not all about mileage anxiety, but more about replenishment energy anxiety. Ideally, the future electric car range can reach 700-800 km, converge with or even higher than the fuel car range, in order to solve the mileage anxiety of car owners, but more importantly, replenish energy more quickly and conveniently, only after solving this problem, mileage anxiety can be completely alleviated.
