The shared electric bicycle market is booming, and lithium iron phosphate batteries are stirring up the two-wheeler battery pattern.
Gaogong Li-Battery is concerned that in the face of the rise of emerging markets, a group of lithium battery companies is flocking to the two-wheeled vehicle sharing/swap market with lithium iron phosphate battery products. include:
① CATL has planned a number of large cylindrical production lines of lithium iron phosphate, which will be used on a large scale to fight in the two-wheeler shared battery exchange market;
② Tianneng Lithium Battery released a new product of super lithium iron phosphate, attacking the shared electric bicycle market;
③ Topband Lithium Battery is also preparing to build a GWh-level lithium iron phosphate soft pack production line in Huizhou, also targeting the two-wheeler shared battery swap market...
At the same time, there are also two-wheeler lithium battery companies that previously mainly engaged in non-lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are also transforming or upgrading their production lines for lithium iron phosphate products.
The reason is that shared motorcycles play a crucial synergy effect for Internet giants to build local life service scenarios. Although local policies are still unclear, Internet giants have started to compete for offline sites.
According to the plan, Didi Qingju, Meituan, and Haro plan to invest more than one million shared electric vehicles in 2020, and the three major operating companies have plans to introduce lithium iron phosphate (LFP).
In response to the demand for lithium batteries in sharing/replacement application scenarios, lithium iron phosphate batteries are taking their place in the lithium battery market for two-wheelers by virtue of their comprehensive advantages in safety, energy density, long cycle life, and cost-effective advantages. .
Sharing/replacement "Blue Ocean"
The strategic landing of the Internet giants and the steady flow of capital into platforms such as two-wheeled vehicle replacement, leasing, and operation are reflecting the development space and upward curve of shared electric bicycles.
Based on the development trend of bicycle application lithium batteries under the new national standard, the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the sharing/replacement market cannot be underestimated.
According to the calculation of a shared electric bicycle with a 48V20ah of about 0.96KWh, 3 million shared electric bicycles mean that there is a demand for lithium batteries close to 3GWh. If the ratio of 1:1.5 is included, the demand for lithium batteries for shared electric bicycles is expected. Reach 4.5GWh.
Industry data predicts that by 2023, shared electric bicycles will enter the scale of 5 million units, and by 2025, they will reach 8 million units. This means that the demand for shared electric bicycles for lithium batteries will increase from 7.2GWh to 11.5GWh.
It should be noted that shared electric bicycles are still in the initial stage of development. For reasons of safety and other factors and the "foresight" of shared bicycles, local governments have strictly controlled the promotion of shared electric bicycles. The uncertainty of local policies will also affect the development speed of electric bicycle sharing/replacement.
The good news is that upper-level policies are loosening restrictions on shared travel modes. Compared with the previous guidance on “do not encourage the development of Internet rental electric bicycles”, with the introduction of the new national standard for electric bicycles, the “Green Industry Guidance Catalogue (2019)” issued by the Ministry of Transport and others clearly “encourage the development of the construction and operation of shared transportation facilities” ".
At present, Internet giants are also relying on their advantages in product safety research and development, refined operation management, and operating model design to cooperate with local government authorities to provide new urban green travel services.
Optimistic practitioners believe that today is different from the past. Shared travel must say goodbye to barbaric growth, and shared motorcycles have room for survival. Under the leadership of Internet giants, policy deregulation, popularization of sharing models, better profit models, and solutions to travel pain points are expected to help the rapid growth of shared motorcycles.
Opportunities for lithium iron phosphate
From the perspective of the material system, there are currently three main technical routes in the electric two-wheeler market: lithium manganate mixed with ternary, ternary, and lithium iron phosphate.
Among them, lithium manganate doped ternary is the current mainstream application material system for lithium-ion two-wheelers. Its service life is 3-4 times that of lead-acid batteries, and the cost is almost comparable to that of lead-acid batteries. Therefore, it includes Yadi and Emma. Head OEMs such as Tailing, etc. are all matching the hot-selling lithium two-wheeled models for the C-side.
The ternary battery has high energy density, good charge, and discharge performance, and can be charged and discharged at a large rate, which is conducive to the operation of high-power motors. However, due to the high safety performance requirements and the large fluctuations of the ternary battery affected by the price of raw materials, it is mainly concentrated in the high-end and mid-end models in the market.
Compared with lithium manganate doped ternary and ternary batteries, because the application scenarios of shared electric bicycles are more demanding, lithium iron phosphate batteries have comprehensive advantages in safety, energy density, cycle life, and cost performance, which are more suitable for applications in Shared vehicle models, battery swaps, and leasing fields.
A senior executive of a power exchange company who has received multiple rounds of investment told Gaogong Lithium that battery safety is the bottom line for the safety of two-wheeled vehicles, followed by performance and price. Battery safety is even related to the growth and demise of companies and brands. Once a fire accident occurs due to a shared battery, the damage to the company and the entire industry will be greatly affected. Therefore, the company is particularly cautious in the choice of two-wheeler batteries.
In fact, the above-mentioned three major technical routes all rely on their respective advantages to "Nuggets" in the lithium battery two-wheeler market, with lithium manganate doping ternary being the most prominent. And the lithium iron phosphate battery, which has not performed well in this market before, is expected to quickly breakthrough in the two-wheeled vehicle sharing/swap market.
It is worth mentioning that Gaogong Li Battery has learned that the current price of lithium iron phosphate materials is further dropping, which is also "promoting the expansion" of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the sharing/replacement market.
"Currently, the quotation of power-type lithium iron phosphate materials has been around 35,000/ton, and some of the iron-lithium materials used in the backup power market have dropped below 30,000/ton." A lithium iron phosphate manufacturer revealed that this is mainly related to the industry. Overcapacity, unsaturated market demand, and strong downstream price control are related.
What needs to be vigilant is that due to low prices and fierce competition, lithium batteries for electric bicycles have caused uneven product quality. Choosing high-quality and cost-effective lithium battery products is the underlying logic for the long-term development of shared electric bicycles.
