In 2021, the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4) battery shipments has far exceeded that of ternary lithium batteries that have dominated the market for many years. According to the above data, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4) batteries and ternary lithium batteries in the domestic power battery market in 2021 will account for 53% and 47%, respectively, completely reversing the annual output of lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4) batteries since 2018. Not as good as the trend of ternary lithium batteries.
"The explosive growth of lithium iron phosphate battery shipments is first due to the rapid development of the domestic new energy vehicle industry. Although the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the past year still exists, from the perspective of market production and sales, my country's new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly. At the same time, in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, new energy vehicles have received unprecedented attention.”
According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the total production of new energy vehicles in my country in 2021 will be 3.545 million units, a year-on-year increase of 159.5%, and the market share has risen to 13.4%.
It is worth noting that the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4) battery shipments once "outperformed" the growth rate of new energy vehicle production, superimposed on the rising market demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the field of electrochemical energy storage in the next few years, making phosphoric acid. The growth rate of lithium iron (lifepo4) battery production far exceeds that of ternary lithium batteries.
In addition to the favorable external environment, the product power of lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4) batteries is also rapidly improving. A number of industry experts told reporters that the current product performance and cost advantages of lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4) batteries have become very prominent, which is an important factor for it to "return a game" in 2021.
manly battery pointed out that since BYD launched the lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4) blade battery in 2020, the "traditional disadvantage" that the energy density is not as good as that of the ternary lithium battery has weakened. At the same time, continuous technological innovation has made the lithium iron phosphate battery basically meet the battery life of 600. The demand for all models below the kilometer, especially the new energy car companies such as BYD and Tesla, has brought a strong impetus to the growth of lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4) battery demand.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the All-China Passenger Federation, pointed out that compared with ternary lithium batteries that require high prices and relatively scarce metals such as cobalt and nickel, lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4) batteries cost less, especially in lithium battery cathodes, anodes, and electrolytes. At the moment when the prices of raw materials are rising at the same time, the cost pressure of large-scale production is relatively small.
manly battery also said that in 2021, the prices of lithium carbonate and cobalt, the upstream raw materials of lithium batteries, will soar. Will consider switching to lithium iron phosphate (lifepo4) batteries with cost-effective advantages.
It is worth noting that manly battery believes that from the perspective of past accidents, including new energy vehicles and energy storage power stations, the accident probability of ternary lithium batteries is still much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries. The key reason is the latter. The internal structure design is relatively safer.
"In fact, both consumers and power battery manufacturers currently have some preference for lithium iron phosphate batteries." On the one hand, consumers will consider the safety performance of lithium iron phosphate batteries when purchasing a car, and tend to buy safer batteries; On the one hand, considering the recall and severe penalties that may be faced after a safety accident, manufacturers' preference for safety will further expand the market advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries. "
Lithium iron phosphate batteries have regained the market with multiple advantages. Can this trend continue?
manly battery believes that from the current market development, the installed capacity growth of lithium iron phosphate batteries is still expected to be higher than that of ternary lithium batteries, "optimistically, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the domestic market is expected to reach 70%.
manly battery believes that as the domestic new energy vehicle market gradually matures, more market segments will further shape the power battery market pattern.
manly battery said that in the future, new energy vehicle products will be more diverse. From the perspective of consumer choice, there will be high-end, mid-end and low-end models. From the perspective of mileage, there will be differences in short-range low-speed, medium-range, and long-range. At the same time, different regions The type of power battery used will also vary. "In the future, the new energy vehicle market is expected to be more subdivided. In the short-range low-speed or medium-short-range electric vehicle market, lithium iron phosphate batteries are likely to maintain the mainstream position, but for long-range or other purpose vehicles, ternary lithium batteries are also expected to maintain. A certain advantage."
manly battery said that in addition to the current "two-point world" ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery, new battery technology routes such as lithium manganese iron phosphate, solid-state batteries, lithium-rich manganese-based batteries, and sodium-ion batteries are also worthy of attention. Lithium iron manganese phosphate and sodium ion batteries may enter the commercial application stage in the next 2-3 years.
