From July 20, 2021 to March 29, 2022, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has achieved a continuous upward trend for nearly 9 months. On March 30, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell for the first time this year. Compared with the low price on March 29, it was lowered by 1,000 yuan/ton. The high price was maintained, and the overall average price fell by 500 yuan/ton. The reason is that the terminal uncertainty factors have increased, the supply shortage situation has eased after entering a tight equilibrium state, and the disturbance of the emotional side of selling goods at low prices is superimposed.
At this stage, the overall operation of the lithium salt plant has been normal since March, and the output of the superimposed salt lake has rebounded, which is a significant increase in smelting compared with February. At the same time, considering the incremental supply from imports this month, the supply of lithium carbonate has increased significantly. On the demand side, starting from the terminal link, the second quarter is the off-season for car sales. Some models have been suspended under cost pressure. After the general price adjustment of many models, the future car sales expectations are still quite uncertain. At present, there is no significant adjustment to battery orders, but it is still accompanied by certain downside risks. Extending upward to the battery sector, given the high inventory accumulated in January and February, and considering the downside risk of car companies’ future battery orders, some battery companies choose to reduce their own finished product and raw material inventory levels, and reduce the external procurement of cathode materials. The overall wait-and-see mood increased. Feedback to the cathode material side, the orders in April have been settled one after another, the overall cathode material order volume has remained flat or slightly reduced, the phenomenon of superimposed lithium salt customer supply has increased, the spot market procurement demand has weakened, and the wait-and-see mood of the entire industry chain has aggravated.
From the perspective of the supply and demand gap, since February, the overall supply and demand gap of lithium salts is gradually narrowing until it reaches a tight balance of about 70 tons in April. Market performance, under the circumstance of the urgency of purchasing, the downstream voice has been strengthened, but the quotations of mainstream manufacturers are still firm at 500,000-510,000 yuan / ton. At the end of the day, some material factories also sold lithium salt inventories at low prices. While the gaming atmosphere continues, the bottom line of prices continues to refresh, and the overall market price range is further expanded. It is expected that the price of lithium salts will remain stable in the near future, accompanied by a slight correction risk.
In the future, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply side comes from spodumene, and some smelters have limited increment due to the limitation of mineral materials, mica production will stabilize, salt lakes and import supplements will become the core drivers of growth, and the upward range will be limited. On the demand side, after the nickel price storm and the terminal price increase, the trend of auto sales is gradually clear, and the overall recovery of orders on the material side is expected to be positive. In the following May-June, the gap between supply and demand may reappear, supporting the price of lithium carbonate to continue to maintain a gentle upward trend.
