The competition among lithium-ion battery giants is spreading from electric cars to electric bikes.
First, ATL's subsidiary Xinnengan lithium battery reached a partnership with Yadi. Then, Ningde Times, Hello Chuxing, and Ant Financial set up a joint venture company, Ningde Zhixiang, focusing on two rounds of new energy product research and development, innovation and promotion, and energy network construction; At the same time, BYD and electric bicycle head enterprises to explore cooperation, active layout...... A scramble for the market could break out.
"You have a competitor in the two-wheeler market that you didn't have in the car power battery market." A battery company executive described the current competition in the two-wheeled lithium-ion battery market.
Turn to the "two-wheeler world"
With the entrance of ATL, Ningde Times, and other high-end lithium battery giants, the electric bicycle market is fighting. Three forces, including traditional lead-acid battery manufacturers, lithium-ion battery companies that have been deeply engaged in electric light vehicles for a long time, and new entrants in the field of power batteries for new energy vehicles, are stirring the "two-wheeler river's lake".
The personage inside the course of study looks, the admission of the lithium battery giant, will likely overturn the traditional bicycle battery competition pattern. Even within lithium-ion batteries, there is fierce competition between different technological routes.
According to the introduction, the electric bicycle battery is mainly divided into lithium manganese acid, lithium iron phosphate, and three battery technology route. Lithium manganate battery has a higher economy but less material stability. Lithium-iron phosphate batteries have long cycle life, high safety, and cost advantages. And most automobile power battery manufacturers tend to choose cylindrical ternary batteries, the reason is that ternary batteries have a high energy density, which can make the electric bicycle have a stronger rangeability.
According to a person in charge of the market, the selection of battery material system is the result of the joint influence of end-customer demand, lithium battery application scenarios, economy and other factors, which is also closely related to the original technology reserve, business strategy and market positioning of the enterprise.
"Lead to lithium" to activate the market
Data from the China Cycling Association shows that in 2019, China completed the production of 27,077 million electric bicycles, an increase of 6.1% year on year. Up to now, the number of electric bicycles is nearly 300 million and shows the rapid growth of 30 million units per year, ranking first in the world. At the same time, with the implementation of the new national standard of electric bicycles, the new standard will promote the electric bicycle field will usher in lithium battery instead of lead-acid battery tide.
"At present, lithium electricity penetration by about 10%, as the policy, manufacturers and consumers of li-ion battery electric vehicle, is expected to 2022 lithium electricity penetration rate more than 80%, according to the electric bike 48 v / 12 ah charge on demand, lithium battery demand in 2022 is expected to be more than 17 GWH, according to the electric bicycle, the country's 250 million ownership 70% lithium electricity permeability calculation, market demand is expected to 100 GWH." An industry insider did a back-of-the-envelope calculation.
Data from GGII also showed that driven by strong downstream demand, China's shipments of lithium batteries for bicycles reached 5.450GWh in 2019, a year-on-year growth of 61.5%. It is expected to increase to 8.448GWh in 2020, with a year-on-year growth of 55%.
It is worth noting that, driven by emerging industries such as express delivery and takeout delivery, e-bike users' requirements for battery performance have improved significantly. On the one hand, lead-acid batteries under the existing technical conditions are difficult to meet the demand; On the other hand, the rapid iteration of lithium battery technology and the continuous reduction of cost make the application of lithium battery in the electric bicycle market promising.
Gao Xiaobing, vice president of the Institute of Advanced Industry, is optimistic that the coverage of lithium-ion electric bicycles will achieve a compound growth rate of 23 percent from 2019 to 2023, which is expected to reach 33.1 million units in 2023. From this year's market situation, the major brands of lithium battery market pricing have been reduced to a certain extent, in the energy density, more clean environmental protection, more portable and many other product advantages, lithium battery to replace the pace of lead battery accelerated. It is expected that the number of lithium-ion electric bicycles in China will exceed 10 million by 2020, and the penetration rate will exceed 50% by 2021, realizing a major reversal of the industrial pattern.
It's not easy to get a piece of the pie
The prospect of switching from lead to lithium in e-bikes is attractive because of the huge lead battery stock, but the alternative is not always smooth.
At present, it is not easy for crossover entrants in the field of power batteries for new energy vehicles to dominate the field of electric bicycles. They met an opponent they had never met: as the world leader in lithium batteries for light vehicles, Xingheng Power has been the world's No.1 in terms of lithium battery shipments for many consecutive years.
"It is quite difficult for a crossover lithium battery company to profit from the e-bike market. It faces challenges in terms of cost, channels, and product standards." "An industry insider said.
At present, there are more than 70 electric bicycle supporting lithium battery enterprises in China, and new brands continue to enter. Industry insiders said that in the "lead to lithium" market transition, the electric bicycle lithium market will usher in a more violent "reshuffle".
