Previously, ternary lithium batteries dominated the market, and in the first quarter of 2020, the market share of ternary lithium batteries reached a staggering 76%. At that time, most industry insiders believe that the performance advantages of ternary lithium batteries are sufficient to crush lithium iron phosphate batteries, but did not realize its disadvantages in terms of cost.
Specifically, NCM811 ternary lithium battery price cost of 1.0-1.2 yuan / Wh, energy density is 170-200 Wh / kg; lithium iron phosphate battery price of 0.5-0.7 yuan / Wh, energy density of 130-150 Wh / kg.
In the case of the same range of a single vehicle, lithium iron phosphate batteries have more cost advantages.
In May this year, lithium iron phosphate production deficit ternary lithium batteries, in July, lithium iron phosphate loading deficit ternary lithium batteries.
Data show that from January to September this year, China's power battery installation accumulated 92.0GWh. 47.1GWh of ternary lithium batteries installed, accounting for 51.2%; 44.8GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries installed, accounting for 48.7% of the total installed capacity.
With the continued rise in the price of lithium battery raw materials, lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries, the comprehensive cost gap continues to narrow, the economy of lithium iron phosphate again discount.
Data show that entering November, the average price of domestic battery-grade orthophosphate is 23,500 yuan / ton, compared to the beginning of the price doubled; power lithium iron phosphate average price of 8.000 yuan / ton, compared to the beginning of the year rose about 118%. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price of 184,800 yuan / ton, battery-grade lithium carbonate price of 1930,000 yuan / ton. In addition, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is the most "crazy", from the lowest price of 70,000 yuan / ton in 2020 to 515,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 635.71%.
Analysts believe that with the arrival of winter, the impact of factors such as cooling production cuts, production of related raw materials will be reduced, the market will continue to go to inventory for, supply and demand pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. It is expected that in the coming period, raw material prices will continue to run high.
Industry sources said that only at this stage, lithium iron phosphate compared to ternary cost gap of just less than 20%.
Although the cost of lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, but the battery industry chain upstream and downstream is still moving closer to lithium iron phosphate. Recently, Tesla announced in the third quarter earnings call, the future global standard range upgrade version of Model 3 and standard range version of Model Y will use lithium iron phosphate batteries. Prior to this Daimler Group CEO Kang Songlin said that in order to curb the soaring prices of certain metals in entry-level models, Mercedes-Benz will use lithium iron phosphate batteries in entry-level models, starting in 2024 in the next generation of models using lithium iron phosphate batteries. Although the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased, but compared with ternary batteries, its cost advantage still exists. Tesla and Daimler two car companies choose lithium iron phosphate battery for the same purpose, is to reduce costs.
In addition to the cost, safety and energy density is also a factor that the OEM must weigh.
Safety, is a major "selling point" of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have high temperature resistance, safety stability, cycle performance better advantages, after the fires, explosions and other negative events, safety has become a battery business, car companies and even consumers are very concerned about the issue. In terms of energy density, lithium iron phosphate batteries than ternary batteries are lacking, but with the upgrade of large battery technology, new group technology and other related technology applications, its low energy density, low temperature performance and other disadvantages gradually optimized. In addition, the price of cobalt and nickel, the upstream raw materials for ternary batteries, continues to rise. By the end of October, the price of cobalt was 404,200 yuan/ton, and the high nickel 811 material was 272,000 yuan/ton. The total cost of ternary materials continues to rise, and the market supply is slightly tight. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials and power restrictions, the production capacity of ternary lithium batteries is somewhat restricted. This is also one of the reasons why some car companies turn to lithium iron phosphate.
Overall, at present, lithium iron phosphate gradually return to the mainstream of the market. Relevant institutions predict that the total domestic demand for lithium iron phosphate in 2021 is about 146.2 GWh, and the total domestic demand in 2025 is 225 GWh, with a compound annual growth rate of about 48.3%; the global demand for lithium iron phosphate in 2021 is 92.4 GWh, and this demand will grow to 550 GWh in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of about 56.3%.
