On May 15, 2018, the "Electric Bicycle Safety Technical Specification", the new national standard, was officially released and implemented on April 15, 2019. Starting from July 1, 2019, unlicensed and unlicensed electric vehicles that exceed the standard will not be allowed on the road. For the number plates of electric vehicles exceeding the standard, temporary pass signs will be issued, and the use period will be extended to December 31, 2023. From January 1, 2024, all electric bicycles that exceed the standard will not be allowed on the road.
The new national standard for vehicle weight requirements is accelerating the replacement of lead-acid batteries to lithium batteries. The new national standard has specific requirements for the quality of electric bicycles, battery voltage, motor power, and maximum speed. Among them, the weight of the entire vehicle is required to be no more than 55kg. The weight of the lead-acid battery by the end of 2019 is generally more than 70kg.
On December 28, 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promulgated the three recommended standards of ``Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Bicycles'', ``Requirements for Model Nomenclature and Marking of Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Bicycles'' and ``Vocabulary of Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Bicycles'', and issued them in 2019 Implemented on July 1, 2005, lithium batteries for electric bicycles have gradually stepped onto the standardized track.
Electric two-wheelers are generally dominated by lead-acid batteries, and the penetration rate of lithium batteries is increasing. In 2019, the installed capacity of lithium batteries for electric bicycles in my country was 5.45GWh, an increase of 61.5% year-on-year, and the market share reached 13.2%, an increase of 1.8 pct year-on-year. As the three-year transition period approaches, the penetration of lithium in the electric bicycle market will accelerate significantly in the future. It is expected that the penetration rate of lithium in 2020 will reach about 20%.
Lithium batteries are superior to lead-acid batteries in terms of energy density and cycle life. Under the new national standard, if lead-acid batteries are to be used, the weight of the frame must be controlled below 36kg. The use of lithium batteries with lighter weight and higher energy density will become the mainstream choice for electric vehicle companies.
The energy density of lithium batteries is 3 to 5 times that of lead-acid batteries. Under the same charged condition, the weight of lithium batteries is only about a quarter of that of lead-acid batteries. The use of lithium batteries can reduce the weight of the whole vehicle by more than 10kg, which is easier Meet the requirements of the new national standard that the vehicle mass is less than 55kg.
The number of charge and discharge times of lead-acid batteries is much lower than that of lithium batteries. According to the estimation of the charge and discharge of electric bicycles every two days, ternary and manganese lithium batteries can be used for 5-6 years, which is twice the service life of lead-acid batteries.
At the same time, the cost of lithium batteries has been declining due to technological progress and scale effects. Recently, the price of lithium iron phosphate prismatic batteries has dropped to 0.8 yuan/Wh, and the price of lead-acid batteries is about 0.5 yuan/Wh. The price is close, and the cost of lithium batteries will further decrease in the future, which will further compress the space of lead-acid batteries.
The electric bicycle market is recovering rapidly, and the ToB end demand space is large. The output of electric bicycles in 2020H1 was 11.701 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. After the epidemic, the electric bicycle market has recovered rapidly, with continuous year-on-year growth since April, mainly due to the rapid development of service industries such as shared bicycles, takeaways, and express delivery, and increased demand on the ToB side, which drives overall sales.
In 2019, the number of shared motorcycles in China has exceeded 1 million, and it is expected to reach 3 million in 2023 and 8 million in 2025. The battery specifications of electric bicycles are 4812 (48V, 12Ah) and 4820 (48V, 20Ah) as the mainstream, and the battery charge of the bicycle is 0.576kWh and 0.96kWh, respectively.
ToB electric bicycles have a high preference for long battery life. Assuming that the market uses all 4820 lithium batteries, 3 million shared electric bicycles means that there is a demand for lithium batteries close to 2.88GWh. For example, consider a 1:1.5 battery exchange ratio. , The demand for lithium batteries for shared electric bicycles may reach 4.5 GWh in 2023.
Traditional lead-acid battery companies still adhere to the lead-acid material route. The increase of lithium batteries in the field of electric bicycles mainly comes from the addition of lithium battery manufacturers. Lithium batteries have a long repair cycle and relatively lagging after-sales service. In addition, compared with lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries have poor safety. Tianneng Power and Chaowei Power are leading companies in lead-acid electric bicycles, with a combined market share of 80-90%:
Tianneng Power’s 2020H1 lead-acid battery revenue was 10.63 billion yuan, accounting for 47% of the total revenue for the period, and the lithium battery revenue was 403 million yuan, accounting for only 1.8%;
During the same period, Chaowei Power’s lead-acid battery revenue was 7.21 billion yuan, accounting for 64.9%, and the lithium battery revenue was 58 million yuan, accounting for 0.5%, and the proportion was declining year by year.
