Lithium battery manufacturer analysis, on December 3, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Recommended Model Catalog for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (12th batch in 2018)", which includes 133 models from 66 companies, including pure electric vehicles. Among the products, there are 57 models, 105 models with pluggable inserts, a total of 16 models of eight hybrid products and 12 models of seven fuel cell products.
The Recommended Catalog for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles can reflect to a certain extent the development trend of new energy vehicles as well as the layout and arrangement of vehicles and batteries by enterprises.
Data source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology SMM
The chart above shows the models and corresponding battery types in the 12 batches of New Energy Vehicle Promotion Catalogs released since 2018. Among them, the application of ternary batteries in pure electric passenger cars has increased significantly since the fifth batch of promotional catalogs in 2018, reflecting the overall rapid transformation of products prior to the implementation of the new subsidy policy. The number of lithium-manganese oxides installed in plug-in hybrid passenger cars is very high and also has good performance in dedicated vehicle installations. It is worth noting that plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles have largely been ternary, and lithium iron phosphate batteries have been gradually withdrawn from this market.
Recently, the automotive industry has begun a new round of speculation on the 2019 new energy vehicle subsidy policy. OEMs and battery factories have also begun to prepare for the possible implementation of the policy next year. At present, the new energy bus market with the largest capacity lithium iron phosphate battery is close to saturation, and ternary batteries continue to penetrate the new energy passenger car market driven by the policy. In the future, the development of lithium iron phosphate lithium battery plant will be how? How is the impact on the upstream cathode materials?
Analysis of the impact of new energy subsidy policy on lithium iron phosphate battery plants in the online version
For the next 2 years, the battery model judgment, most industry participants currently use the new energy-oriented subsidy policy. Near the end of the year, the 2019 new energy vehicle subsidy policy has also continued to trigger industry discussions.
According to the most widely distributed version, the 2019 new energy vehicle subsidy retreat version is as follows.
For lithium iron phosphate manufacturers, the current level of technology in the industry is The degree of polarization has become more pronounced. According to industry sources, the current energy density of LiFePO4 systems in China averages about 120Wh / kg; LiFePO4 manufacturers, such as Guoneng Battery, say its LiFePO4 standard case has reached an energy density of 155Wh / kg.
According to the online version of the new energy subsidy policy, the energy density requirement for 2019 will increase from 120wh / kg this year to 140wh / kg, and most lithium iron phosphate companies are currently unable to meet the subsidy threshold for next year.
In the face of the upcoming new energy subsidy policy, lithium iron phosphate manufacturers can divide their future layout plans into the following three categories.
First, through the Guoxuan Hi- Gao Ke, State Energy Battery and other companies as representatives. These companies currently hold the most advanced lithium iron phosphate lithium battery technology, regardless of energy density level or performance in the industry in a leading position. At the same time, many industry experts told SMM that the future development of batteries must take safety as the main core of development, considering the arrival of the subsidy-free era. Both safety and cost appear to be less favorable compared to ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries. For companies already far ahead of lithium iron phosphate technology, when they consider the future layout, decided to continue to cultivate this market.
Second, the coexistence category, represented by companies such as BYD. BYD, previously dominated by lithium iron phosphate, installed more ternary batteries than lithium iron phosphate this March. Ternary and lithium iron phosphate parallel, is the post-subsidy era of most battery companies expedient. Some companies mainly based on ternary batteries and supplemented by lithium iron phosphate batteries told SMM that next year's policy is expected to increase the requirements for energy density, and the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries will be reduced by 20-30% next year. .
Third, the transformation category, mainly small companies. For these companies, it is extremely difficult to catch up with the energy density requirements of the subsidy policy in a short period of time. In the current situation where most OEMs are under financial pressure, if the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries do not receive new energy subsidies, much of the downstream billing pressure will be transferred to these battery companies. SMM understands that most of these companies have shifted to consumer lithium battery markets with greater future growth potential, such as power tools and energy storage markets.
Analysis of the impact on upstream raw materials
According to SMM research, China's lithium iron phosphate cathode material is already overcapacity and has been de-stocked since the beginning of this year. For large lithium iron phosphate anode plants, orders are still relatively plentiful, and even some seem to be in short supply. From now on at the beginning of this year, there are already plans to stop production and reduce output. Considering the adjustment in demand for lithium iron phosphate from some downstream battery factories next year, some lithium iron phosphate producers have shifted to energy storage, a market with greater potential for growth. Next year lithium iron phosphate is still in the de-stocking phase, SMM expects next year's lithium iron phosphate production will be the same as this year.
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